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The potential benefits, constraints and opportunities for emerging vehicle safety technology

Assoc. Prof. Robert Anderson Centre for Automotive Safety Research. The potential benefits, constraints and opportunities for emerging vehicle safety technology. Estimates of potential effectiveness of some new vehicle technologies A focus on frontal collision avoidance technologies

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The potential benefits, constraints and opportunities for emerging vehicle safety technology

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  1. Assoc. Prof. Robert Anderson Centre for Automotive Safety Research The potential benefits, constraints and opportunities for emerging vehicle safety technology

  2. Estimates of potential effectiveness of some new vehicle technologies • A focus on frontal collision avoidance technologies • Challenges and opportunities

  3. Potential benefits of a range of technologies • The past 20 years has been about improving crashworthiness • Because of the age of the fleet, we are likely to see benefits of past improvements continue over the coming decade • For new vehicles, the future is about ADAS • Benefits will be felt closer to 2020 and beyond • General objective: roll out technology into high volume segments of the market

  4. We analysed historical crash data to examine which of the technologies are likely to yield benefits • 11 years of crash data from New South Wales • Simplified methodology • Disaggregate by crash type and speed limit • Assume a high effectiveness in a very narrow set of crash circumstance • Assume a lower effectiveness in a slightly broader set of crash circumstances • No accounting for temporal trend in risk

  5. Technology with high potential

  6. Technology with high potential - Trucks

  7. Technology with high potential - motorcycles

  8. A more detailed look at Autonomous Emergency Braking

  9. 20-30% of crashes avoided completely

  10. Challenges for positive evaluation of new technologies • Only a tiny proportion of vehicles are involved in serious and fatal crashes, yet the technology is installed in every vehicle • Marginal benefits may decline because vehicles will have fewer crashes due to upstream technologies, and other road safety improvements

  11. Crash rates for light vehicles – injury crashes (forward collisions only)

  12. Crash rates for light vehicles – fatal crashes (forward collisions only)

  13. Approximating break even costs of vehicle technology • Historical data tells us total crash costs/total registered vehicles = $1,350 per vehicle per year (BITRE, 2006) • 20 year vehicle life • Discounted total cost is $14,600 • Undiscounted total cost is $27,000 • Saving 1% of crashes -> technology in the low hundreds of dollars • Saving 10% of crashes -> technology in the low thousands of dollars

  14. Average lifetime crash costs per vehicle by year of manufacture (preliminary)

  15. The argument for regulation will become more difficult • However, the technology is coming anyway…

  16. Additional benefits • Both the Volvo City Safety system and the Subaru Eye-Sight attract discount on comprehensive vehicle insurance • 20% • At $200 per year discount, payback period will be under 12 years (3% discount applied) • 10 year BCR for passenger vehicles would increase from marginal to 2.5

  17. Importance of low speed crash avoidance, and a confluence of interests • Safety analysts do not normally give much credit to low speed crash costs in calculations • Prefer human costs - injury and fatal • Consumers might see these as very low probability events • Consumers however, may be more attracted to low speed crash avoidance and insurance premium savings • Benefit is immediate • Risk of minor damage is high • Similar considerations should apply with respect to heavy vehicle operators

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