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Strategic Considerations (Evhen Marchuk)

This text explores strategic considerations related to the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia, including the involvement of Russian officers in the Ukrainian military, the fear of prosecution among separatist leaders, Putin's confidence in Western intervention, and the challenges Ukraine faces in confronting Russia. It also analyzes the political landscape, including Putin's hold on power, the support he receives from the Russian Duma, the impact of Merkel's decreasing rating and Brexit on EU unity, and Putin's disregard for international obligations. The text concludes by discussing the limitations of negotiations without Russia's involvement and the absence of a viable alternative to the Normandy negotiations format.

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Strategic Considerations (Evhen Marchuk)

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  1. Strategic Considerations (Evhen Marchuk) • Ukraine fights well organized military organization, where key command positions are manned with Russian active duty officers • Separatist’ leadership is aware that they will be prosecuted if conflict is resolved on Ukrainian conditions • Putin knows that the West will not send military power to Ukraine • Putin is not afraid of Ukraine neither economic, military nor information power

  2. Strategic Considerations • Putin will not loose his state power in next decade • Russian Duma fully supports Putin • Ukraine cannot stand full scale military confrontation with Russia on its own with a little cost • Current U.S. administration will not make radical steps right before Whit House takeover

  3. Strategic Considerations • Merkel’s rating has decreased recently. That will affect next year’s DEU elections • Brexit weakened EU unity • Putin will try to further brake EU integrity • Putin will continue not respecting his international obligations in future

  4. Strategic Considerations • Any international negotiations format without Russia will not be effective • UN peacekeeping mission to Ukraine is hardly possible • Putin is confident that no one will use military power against Russia • No one sees an alternative to Normandy negotiations format

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