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Results of airborne observations in the framework of THORPEX and an outlook to T-NAWDEX 2016

Results of airborne observations in the framework of THORPEX and an outlook to T-NAWDEX 2016. Andreas Schäfler 1 , Maxi Boettcher 2 , George Craig 3 , Andreas Dörnbrack 1 , Christian Grams 2 , Florian Harnisch 4 , Uwe Marksteiner 1 , Marc Rautenhaus 5 , Heini Wernli 2

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Results of airborne observations in the framework of THORPEX and an outlook to T-NAWDEX 2016

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  1. Results of airborne observations in the framework of THORPEX and an outlook to T-NAWDEX 2016 Andreas Schäfler1, Maxi Boettcher2, George Craig3, Andreas Dörnbrack1, Christian Grams2, Florian Harnisch4, Uwe Marksteiner1, Marc Rautenhaus5, HeiniWernli2 1Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt, Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany 2 Institute forAtmosphericandClimate Science, ETH Zurich, Switzerland 3 Meteorologisches Institut, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität, München, Germany 4 Hans-ErtelCentreforWeatherReserach, Meteorologisches Institut, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität, München, Germany 5 Computer Graphics andVisualisation Group, Technische Universität München, Garching, Germany

  2. DLR Falcon field experiments related to THORPEX • Several airborne campaigns that directly originated from THORPEX with German contribution • Remote sensing Lidar instruments to measure range resolved profiles of Water Vapor and Winds • Two complementary research foci: • Use observations to maximally improve the skill of weather forecasts (“targeted observations”) • Investigate physical processes responsible for the deterioration of FC quality WaterVapor Wind Schäfler et al. 2010 WWOSC, Montréal, 17 August 2014

  3. DLR contribution to THORPEX field experiments ATReC2003 Atlantic THORPEX Regional Campaign ETReC2007 European THORPEX Regional Campaign IPY-THORPEX2008 InternationalPolar Year - THORPEX TPARC 2008 THORPEX Pacific AsianRegional Campaign TNAWDEX-Falcon2012 THORPEX-North Atlantic Waveguide and Downstream Impact Experiment Targeted Wind-Lidarobservations over the North Atlantic(Weissmann and Cardinali 2007) Targeted Wind & WV-Lidar obsover western Europe Targeted Wind & WV-Lidar obsover NW-Pacific(e.g. Weissmann et al. 2012; Harnisch et al. 2011) Dropsonde obsof polar lows(Irvine et al. 2010,1011) Greenland Tip Jet WV-transport by collocated lidar obs(Schäfler et al. 2010) Warm Conveyor Belt inflows(Schäfler et al. 2011) Water Vapour Variability(Fischer et al. 2012) Structure & evolutionof polar lows(Wagner et al. 2011) WCB inflows andtheir relevance forforecast quality(Schäfler and Harnisch 2014) Obs of diabatic processes in Warm Conveyor Belts(Schäfler et al. 2014) Importance of diabatic processes for the predictability in the extratropics WWOSC, Montréal, 17 August 2014

  4. The role of diabatic processes WCB outflow 300 hPa • Diabatic processes in WCBs strongly impact the life cycle of cyclones and the downstream Rossby wave development • Insufficiencies in the representation ofWCBs are expected to lead to forecasterrors • What moisture errors appear in the WCB inflow region and how do they affect forecast accuracy? • How well are diabatic processes represented by current NWP models? WCB ascent strong precip WCB inflow 900 hPa high humidity Joos and Wernli 2012 (QJ) PV on 320 K Grams et al. 2011 (QJ) WWOSC, Montréal, 17 August 2014

  5. The role of diabatic processes – WCB inflow moisture TPARC 19 September 2008 • Investigate the sensitivity of forecast accuracy to the moisture content in the inflow region of a WCB (Schäfler and Harnisch 2014, QJ) • Lower outflow height & reduced tropopause height caused a change in the jet-stream wind speeds PV and wind speed @ 322 K FC 1 FC 2 FC 1 FC 1 FC 2 AN 1: OperationalObservations FC 2 AN 2: OP OBS + LIDAR WV > Reduction of inflow moisture SCI-POT1176 - Impact of the inflow moisture on the evolution of a Warm Conveyor Belt WWOSC, Montréal, 17 August 2014

  6. The role of diabatic processes – “T-NAWDEX-Falcon” observations • T-NAWDEX Falcon investigated, how… • realistically are moisture and latent heating along WCBs represented in NWP models? • Strategy: • observe ascending airmasses during different stages of the WCB by performing in-situ measurements of temperature and humidity • observe the same airmass separated in space and time by trying to achieve a Lagrangian matching of consecutively planned flight paths Schäfler et al. 2014 (Weather) WWOSC, Montréal, 17 August 2014

  7. The role of diabatic processes – “T-NAWDEX-Falcon” observations Case Study – 19 October 2012 • 8 to 26 October 2012 • 32 flight hours in 8 scientific missions • 3 WCB events • Ongoing analysis of: • Mesoscale structures of WCBs and their representation in NWP models • Analysis of Lagrangian matches of airmasses • Predictability investigation of WCB forecasts • Research in Ensemble Forecast Visualization for Flight Planning ΘEand Z @ 700 hPa Wind speed @ 300 hPa SCI-POS1084 - T-NAWDEX-Falcon: Lagrangian observations of warm conveyor belt air masses WWOSC, Montréal, 17 August 2014

  8. Towards a THORPEX North Atlantic Waveguide and Downstream Impact Experiment 2016 • Aircraft observations of jet-level winds • originally proposed by the THORPEX working group Predictability and Dynamical Processes (PDP) • Overarching hypothesis: • There are systematic errors in model representation of waveguide perturbations that are attributable to diabatic processes • Errors are manifested as errors in PV distribution (errors in the jet stream) • → forecast errors of high-impact weather downstream Marksteiner et al. 2012 • Lidar • ECMWF WWOSC, Montréal, 17 August 2014

  9. Scientific scope • Downstream impact of diabatically modified PV anomalies • Wave breaking sensitivity to upstream disturbances • Wave breaking influence on synoptic features • Factors modifying wave-guide disturbances • Tropopause polar vorticies(pos. PV anomalies) • WCB outflow (neg. PV anomalies) • ET of tropical cyclones • Precursor wave packets G: HALO US: GV L L CAN: NRC Convair 580 G: Falcon L L • Ideal operation period in Sep/Oct 2016: • Strong storm activity • Tropical Cyclones • Polar Vorticies • Forecast Busts Courtesyof Pat Harr • Evolution of Rossby waves along the waveguide • Waveguide representation • Downstream evolution of PV anomalies • Localmodification of Rossby waves by pos. and neg. PV anomalies   WWOSC, Montréal, 17 August 2014

  10. LMU Munich – DLR Oberpfaffenhofen – ETH Zurich Plans HALO Gulfstream V • Focus on: • Remote sensing measurements • operate from Ireland or Iceland • operate over eastern Atlantic • Primary aims: • thermodynamic properties in outflow of WCBs and at jet level • humidity structure of lower troposphere • follow evolution of Rossby waves along the wave guide • combined lidar/radar observations • combinedtemperatureand wind obs • satellite validation ADM mission Radiometer Dropsondes Radar WV DIAL DLR Falcon 20 MTP Doppler Lidar WWOSC, Montréal, 17 August 2014

  11. Example of HALO observations Water vapourmixing ratio N Radar reflectivity NARVAL IOP 2 12 January 2014 1608 water vapor profilesduring 4133 km and 05:22h WWOSC, Montréal, 17 August 2014

  12. ExampleofHALO observations ML_CIRRUS, 11 April 2014 WV DIAL observations (quicklook) WCB Outflow WWOSC, Montréal, 17 August 2014

  13. Summary • DLR Falcon participated in a series of field experiments originating from the THORPEX program • Shift from the investigation of the benefit of new observing platforms to observations of processes affecting predictability • Impact of realistic analysis perturbations in the WCB inflow on large scale dynamics which highlight the importance of water vapor observations • Ongoing analysis in the representation of WCB structures • First successful HALO flights highlight new dimensions for research from synoptic to meso-scales • T-NAWDEX 2016 as a coordinated mission with US DOWNSTREAM with focus on multi-scale observations of mechanisms triggering wave guide disturbances over the North Atlantic WWOSC, Montréal, 17 August 2014

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