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Bruce Katz November 9, 1999

The Brookings Institution. Center on Urban and Metropolitan Policy. The New Metropolitan Agenda. Presentation to the Indiana Land Use Consortium. Bruce Katz November 9, 1999. “The sign of a truly educated person is to be deeply moved by statistics.” - George Bernard Shaw. ?. ?.

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Bruce Katz November 9, 1999

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  1. The Brookings Institution Center on Urban and Metropolitan Policy The New Metropolitan Agenda Presentation to the Indiana Land Use Consortium Bruce KatzNovember 9, 1999

  2. “The sign of a truly educated person is to be deeply moved by statistics.” - George Bernard Shaw

  3. ? ? Major Questions • What are the major trends affecting metropolitan areas today? • How do cities and counties in Indiana reflect these trends? • Where do we go from here?

  4. ? ? Major Questions What are the major trends affecting metropolitan areas today?

  5. Decentralization is the dominant trend in U.S. metropolitan areas.

  6. Population Shifts in Top 10 American Cities, 1980-1997

  7. Outer suburbs are experiencing a population boom.

  8. Population Change, Denver Metropolitan Area1980-1998 Denver population (1998) =499,055

  9. Population Change, Chicago Metropolitan Area1980-1998 Chicago population (1998) = 2,802,079

  10. Population Change, Baltimore Metropolitan Area 1980-1998 Baltimore population (1998) = 645,593

  11. Outer Suburbs Continue to Garner the Lion’s Share of New Housing and New Homeowners.

  12. Suburbs Consistently Outpace Cities In New Housing Permits, 1986-1998 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Current Construction Reports

  13. Outer suburbs are experiencing substantial job growth.

  14. Job Location in Washington, D.C. Region, 1990

  15. Job Location in Washington, D.C. Region, 1997

  16. Net Job Growth in Seven Metropolitan Areas* in Ohio, 1994-1997 * Includes Akron, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Columbus, Dayton, Toledo, and Youngstown MSAs Source: Edward Hill & John Brennan, Where is the Renaissance: Employment Specialization within Ohio’s Metro Areas, Sept. 1998.

  17. is becoming more concentrated in central cities. Poverty

  18. Between 1970 and 1990, the number of people living in neighborhoods where 40% or more of the residents are poor nearly doubled: from 4.1 million to 8 million people. Source: Paul Jargowsky, Poverty and Place, Russell Sage, 1997.

  19. Percentage of City Population Living in High Poverty Neighborhoods, 1990 Source: Paul Jargowsky, Poverty and Place, Russell Sage, 1997; U.S. Census data.

  20. General Population & Welfare Caseload,Four Urban Areas

  21. Urban Public School AchievementPercent of 4th grade students at “basic” level on NAEP, 1996 Source: Diane Ravitch, A New Era in Urban Education, Brookings Policy Brief #35, August 1998.

  22. Growth and decentralization are re-making suburbs, changing suburban politics and fueling metro coalitions.

  23. Older suburbs are beginning to take on many of the challenges of central cities. • Increasing school poverty • Growing racial and ethnic diversity • Declining fiscal capacity. • Declining commercial corridors and retail malls+

  24. Percent of Students Eligible for Free and Reduced Cost Lunch, 1997

  25. Newer suburbs are also experiencing severe challenges, such as: • Choking congestion • Overcrowded schools • Loss of open space

  26. Change in Vehicle Miles Traveled Philadelphia Region, 1980-1997 +55% VMT in Millions Regional Population Increase 1980-1997: 3% Source: Philadelphia Inquirer

  27. Loss of Open Space: • The Washington region is losing 10,300 acres a year (28 acres a day) to development: that is equivalent to an area four times the size of Rock Creek Park. • The United States has lost nearly 30.5 million acres of productive farmland to development since 1970, at an average rate of 2 acres per minute. Source: Washington Post; American Farmland Trust.

  28. Why is this Happening? 1. Interstate Highway Act / Automobile dominance 2. FHA mortgage financing 3. De-industrialization of central cities 4. Urban renewal 5. Levittown (mass produced suburban tract house) Source: Bob Fishman,”1999 Fannie Mae Foundation Annual Housing Conference Survey: The American Metropolis at Century’s End: Past and Future Influence,” September 1999

  29. Why is this Happening? 6. Racial segregation / job discrimination 7. Enclosed Shopping Malls 8. Sunbelt-Style Sprawl 9. Air Conditioning 10. Urban riots of the 1960s Source: Bob Fishman,”1999 Fannie Mae Foundation Annual Housing Conference Survey: The American Metropolis at Century’s End: Past and Future Influence,” September 1999

  30. How do Cities and Counties in Indiana reflect these trends?

  31. POPULATION

  32. Population Change, Indianapolis Metropolitan Area1980-1998 Indianapolis population (1998) =741,304

  33. Population Change, Fort Wayne Metropolitan Area1980-1998 Fort Wayne population (1998) =185,716

  34. Population Change, Evansville Metropolitan Area1980-1998 Evansville population (1998) =122,779

  35. Population Change, Gary Metropolitan Area1980-1998 Gary population (1998) =108,469

  36. Population Change, South Bend Metropolitan Area1980-1998 South Bend population (1998) =99,417

  37. Indianapolis Metropolitan Area’s 1990 Share of Population1990 Share of Minority Population

  38. JOBS

  39. City vs. Suburb Job Location City of Indianapolis Job Growth Change 1993-96City 4.7%Suburbs 17% Source: John Brennan, Edward Hill, Where are the Jobs: Cities, Suburbs, and the Competition for Employment Cleveland State University, August 1999 Draft

  40. Net Change in Pay Indianapolis vs. Suburbs 1991-1993 City 3.7% Suburb .1% 1993-1996 City 0.7% Suburb 8.9% U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development: State of the Cities Report, 1999

  41. Percent Change in Total Establishments1991-93 & 1993-96 24.7% 9.0% 3.5% -2.9% Source: Department of Housing and Urban Development: State of the Cities Report, 1999

  42. CONCENTRATEDPOVERTY

  43. Percentage of City Population Living in High Poverty Neighborhoods, 1990 Source: Paul Jargowsky, Poverty and Place, Russell Sage, 1997; U.S. Census data.

  44. City of Indianapolis Percent in Concentrated Poverty 1990 Source: Paul Jargowsky, Poverty and Place, Russell Sage, 1997; U.S. Census data.

  45. Marion County, Indiana1998 Share of Welfare Caseloads vs. Population

  46. Balanced Growth

  47. City Share of Metro Housing Permits for Cities 200-500 Square Miles, 1986-1998 Source: Alexander Von Hoffman, Home Building Patterns in Metropolitan Areas, August 1999 Draft

  48. City Share of Metro Housing PermitsIndianapolis, 1986-1998 Source: Alexander Von Hoffman, Home Building Patterns in Metropolitan Areas, August 1999 Draft

  49. Vehicle Miles TravelIndianapolis Metropolitan Area VMT Growth Rate1992-1997 = 30.87% Population Growth Rate1990-1996 = 8.1% Source: United States Census United States Department of Transportation

  50. Vehicle Miles TravelFt. Wayne Metropolitan Area VMT Growth Rate1992-1997 = 17.28% Population Growth Rate1990-1996 = 4.2% Source: United States Census United States Department of Transportation

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