Climate-Proofing Cities Through Trees: A Stern Report Perspective

1. TEP Seminar XITrees: the key to climate proofing our cities Tree-related risks – a perspective from the Stern report “Where’er you walk, cool gales shall fan the glade, Trees, where you sit, shall crowd into a shade.” Alexander Pope 1688-1744 David Ball Centre for Decision Analysis & Risk Management, Middlesex University www.mdx.ac.uk/risk

2. What is the Stern report? Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change In 2006 Sir Nicholas Stern, Adviser to the Government on the economics of climate change and development, presented his report on the Economics of Climate Change. DARM, Middlesex University

3. Selected Conclusions • average air temperatures could rise by 5ºC • deforestation is responsible for more greenhouse gas emissions than transport • climate is the biggest market failure ever seen • deforestation should be curbed urgently DARM, Middlesex University

4. Towns and cities will suffer more due to the urban heat island effect Ref: Tony Chandler’s ‘The climate of London’ and… As cities grow, they impact local and regional climates, including temperature averages and extremes. Temperature changes affect urban dwellers in many ways, influencing their health and comfort, energy costs, air quality and visibility levels, water availability and quality, ecological services, recreation, and overall quality of life. Source: Arizona State University http://asusmart.com/urbanclimate.php DARM, Middlesex University

5. Urban heat islands are caused by… • heat generation in the city • surface reflectivity • fewer trees, shrubs and plants to shade buildings, intercept solar radiation, and cool the air by evapotraspiration DARM, Middlesex University

6. Impact of hot temperatures on death in London: a time series approach S Hajat1, R S Kovats1, R W Atkinson2, A Haines1 1 London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK 2 St George's Hospital Medical School, London, UK There is a 3% increase in deaths in London for every one degree increase in temperature above 21 ºC. DARM, Middlesex University

7. It’s about…… PLANTING TREES PROPERLY DARM, Middlesex University

8. Source: http://heatisland.lbl.gov/Vegetation/Planting.html DARM, Middlesex University

9. The threat of the safety ‘meme’ DARM, Middlesex University

10. The invasion of the ‘safety meme’ Evolutionary theorist and biologist Richard Dawkins coined the term meme in 1976. He gave as examples tunes, catch-phrases, beliefs, clothing fashions………. Wikipedia, 2007 It also applies to ‘ideas’. Ideas (ways of thinking) can spread like viruses….. Richard Dawkins DARM, Middlesex University

11. According to Judith Hackitt (Chair of the HSE), and others: • “Elf n Safety” is now a serious irritation e.g. • banning of pancake races and wet T-shirt competitions • Santa Claus and his sleigh • plastic swords in a village pantomime DARM, Middlesex University

12. THE NATIONAL ELF SERVICE DARM, Middlesex University

13. ‘Elf n safety’ is in some sense out of control. It doesn’t even think much about elf. It’s almost exclusively about reducing risk of injury, property damage and legal liability. DARM, Middlesex University

14. How elf n safety pits safety against health… Metro 16 March 2004 …and thereby kills people. DARM, Middlesex University

15. That’s why we need a new approach DARM, Middlesex University

16. HSE’s slogan is “Managing risk properly” DARM, Middlesex University

17. “Managing trees properly” Benefits of trees Risks posed by trees DARM, Middlesex University