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Global Warming and Science

Global Warming and Science. March 4, 2008 Dr. Nicholas Drapela Department of Chemistry, Oregon State University. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gJxwl69mrEM. Disclaimer – Why this talk?. A bit about me B.S., Science Education, Chemistry and Physics

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Global Warming and Science

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  1. Global Warmingand Science March 4, 2008 Dr. Nicholas Drapela Department of Chemistry, Oregon State University

  2. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gJxwl69mrEM

  3. Disclaimer – Why this talk? • A bit about me • B.S., Science Education, Chemistry and Physics • Ph.D., Chemistry, Organic Natural Product Synthesis • Not a Republican • Own no stocks in oil companies (or any other companies for that matter) • Disagree strongly w/ Bush administration • Love the outdoors and the environment • Love polar bears and clean air and water • The truth has no agenda • The truth is not dependent on consensus, real or artificial

  4. Science – The Focus • This talk focuses on the science behind Global Warming • It is intended for general audiences • Politics, ecology, sociology, and economics are avoided if possible • See for yourself • Check this 

  5. For a Free Copy of these slides… • Send an email to me at: • nick.drapela@orst.edu • Put “GWAS” in the Subject line

  6. Part 1 What is Global Warming?

  7. Heat Can Get Trapped

  8. http://www.ems.psu.edu/~fraser/Bad/BadGreenhouse.html

  9. What Makes Up This Greenhouse? • Gases in our atmosphere which absorb IR waves and radiate some of the heat back toward the earth • Methane • Nitrous oxide • Chlorofluorocarbons • Carbon dioxide (CO2)

  10. Global Warming Doctrine • Modern society burns fossil fuels such as • Gasoline, natural gas, coal • All of these give off CO2 as they burn • The added CO2 in the atmosphere is increasing the greenhouse effect on the earth • This is increasing the temperature of the earth beyond its normal range • Soon, this will result in disastrous consequences for life on earth • The only way to avoid this is to reduce world CO2 emissions

  11. Predictions From Global Warming • Rising sea levels • Existential threat to low-lying areas such as Venice, San Francisco, the Netherlands, and Florida • Melting of glaciers and ice caps http://www.ens-newswire.com/ens/jan2005/2005-01-28-10.asp

  12. Predictions From Global Warming • Agriculture losses • Water shortages • Massive drought • Food shortages http://www.ens-newswire.com/ens/jan2005/2005-01-28-10.asp

  13. Predictions From Global Warming • Loss of habitat for arctic wildlife • Inuit children unable to continue in their culture http://www.ens-newswire.com/ens/jan2005/2005-01-28-10.asp

  14. Predictions From Global Warming • Severe loss of marine life • Extinction of polar bears • Widespread adverse health effects http://climate-change.suite101.com/article.cfm/global_warming_predictions http://www.worldwildlife.org/climate/science/arcticReport.cfm

  15. Predictions From Global Warming • Severe storms • Large-scale energy disruptions • The world is running out of time http://climate-change.suite101.com/article.cfm/global_warming_predictions

  16. Global Warming in the Media

  17. “An increasing body of observations gives a collective picture of a warming world and other changes in the climate system.” • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2001

  18. Part 2 None of this is true

  19. Preview • There is no factual evidence to show that the earth is now without question above its normal, historical temperature range. • There is no factual evidence to show that it soon will be, or ever will be. • Even if it were, CO2 could not be causing it.

  20. Fact #1 • There is indeed a greenhouse effect on the earth; and that is good • If there were not, the earth’s temperature would drop by roughly 60°F, ending life as we know it on earth

  21. Fact #2 • Global Warming theory is based on models, not on evidence • These computer models are made up by people, and are limited by • the programmer • our scientific knowledge • the ethics of the people who invent them http://www.physorg.com/news593.html

  22. Hard Data or Prediction? • Graphs such as this one are based on extrapolations from weather models, not data • Check this  http://www.americanthinker.com/2007/09/one_more_reason_to_distrust_gl.html

  23. The Famous Hockey Stick • The only irregular part of the graph is the model, not the data McIntyre, Stephen; Ross McKitrick, Geophysical Research Letters2005, 2, 32

  24. Fact #3 • These models have already shown to be incorrect • Ex. Model prediction: Troposphere warming • Actual fact: No significant troposphere warming is occurring http://www.cnsnews.com/ViewNation.asp?Page=/Nation/archive/200205/NAT20020514b.html

  25. Hurricanes • Ex. model prediction: 2006 worst hurricane year on record • Actual fact: 2006, 2007 two of the calmest hurricane seasons in decades • Check this  • Many other model failures exist http://edition.cnn.com/2006/WEATHER/11/30/hurricanes/index.html http://www.usatoday.com/weather/stormcenter/2005-11-30-hurricane-cycle_x.htm

  26. Global Cooling • In 1970, scientists agreed by consensus that the earth was headed for catastrophic global cooling “(Scientists) are almost unanimous in the view that the (cooling) trend will reduce agricultural productivity for the rest of the century…the resulting famines could be catastrophic." --Newsweek, 1975

  27. Global Cooling Was “Certain” http://www.gerrycharlottephelps.com/2006/06/the_cooling_wor.html

  28. “If 50 million people say a stupid thing, it is still a stupid thing.” • Anatole France (1844-1924)

  29. Past Predictions • “In ten years all important animal life in the sea will be extinct. Large areas of coastline will have to be evacuated because of the stench of dead fish.” • Paul Ehrlich, Center for Conservation Biology, Stanford University • Predicted in 1970

  30. Fact #4 • Global warming predictions commonly change to fit whatever data is most recently discovered • More rain, then less rain • Ice cap melting, then ice cap growing • Drought, then flooding • No piece of information can be used to disprove the doctrine • Check this  http://www.livescience.com/environment/070531_gw_rainfall.html

  31. Fact #5 • Weather records show that increased human CO2 emissions were linked to decreased earth temperatures from 1940-1980

  32. Fact #6 • The amount of CO2 released and absorbed by oceans each year dwarfs the amount emitted by humans • 93% of all CO2 in the earth and its atmosphere is contained in the ocean http://www.waterencyclopedia.com/Bi-Ca/Carbon-Dioxide-in-the-Ocean-and-Atmosphere.html

  33. Fact #7 • When oceans warm, they release CO2 • This is why [CO2] has increased and decreased over time

  34. Inconveniently Separated • Temperature/CO2 correlation in ice core records from “An Inconvenient Truth” • Why are the graphs separated?

  35. CO2 Levels Follow Temp Changes • Note on close inspection that CO2lags behind temperature, not the reverse • (Also note that CO2 levels have been naturally varying for eons w/o human fossil fuel emissions)

  36. Fact #8 • The most abundant greenhouse gas in the atmosphere, by far,…is water vapor • 95% of heat trapped in the troposphere is due to water vapor http://www.geyserlandobservatory.org/atmosphere/atmosphere.html http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/alternate/page/environment/appd_d.html

  37. IR Absorptions • Water vapor absorbs energy in the same regions of the infrared as CO2

  38. Greenhouse Efficiency of Water • Besides being more abundant, water is three times as efficient at absorbing infrared energy as CO2

  39. Fact #9 • Other planets in our solar system are warming as well • Numerous studies are showing that Mars, Jupiter, Neptune, and the moon Triton are all warming http://www.usatoday.com/tech/science/space/2006-05-04-jupiter-jr-spot_x.htm?POE=TECISVA http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2007/2006GL028764.shtml http://www.scienceagogo.com/news/19980526052143data_trunc_sys.shtml http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/1998/triton.html http://motls.blogspot.com/2006/05/global-warming-on-jupiter.html

  40. Martian Icecaps • The icecaps on Mars are melting • If CO2 is the culprit, why is Mars also warming? http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2007/02/070228-mars-warming.html

  41. Martian Warming • "Mars has global warming, but without a greenhouse and without the participation of Martians.” • Dr. Habibullo Abdussamatov Director, Space Research Laboratory Pulkovo Astronomical Observatory Russian Academy of Science http://www.nationalpost.com/story.html?id=edae9952-3c3e-47ba-913f-7359a5c7f723&k=0

  42. Fact #10 • In the last 4 months, almost all “lost” polar ice has returned • This fact is reported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) http://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/global_warming_or_cooling/2008/02/19/73798.html

  43. Growing Ice Caps • “The ice between Canada and southwestern Greenland has reached its highest level in 15 years.” • Meteorological Institute of Denmark, 2008 • Levels of Antarctic ice are also increased—one third higher than normal for this time of year http://newsbusters.org/blogs/lynn-davidson/2008/02/16/western-greenland-ice-growing-still-global-warming

  44. Polar Bear Party • Despite popular media portrayal, polar bear numbers are increasing • Canadian government survey: Polar bear population has increased 250% in last 20 years • The indigenous Inuit people report the same http://www.nationalpost.com/news/story.html?id=1ea8233f-14da-4a44-b839-b71a9e5df868

  45. Fact #11 • When compared with larger-timeframe historical temperatures, current earth temperatures are in the normal range

  46. Fact #12 • Despite strenuous attempts to claim consensus and the end of debate, Global Warming theory is far from accepted by all scientists • 2008 International Conference on Climate Change, New York • March 2-4, 2008 • Check this 

  47. Non-Believers • John Coleman, Founder of the Weather Channel • Dr. Patrick Moore, Founder of Greenpeace • Prof. Richard Lindzen, MIT Meteorology and climate expert • Michael Crichton, Author http://icecap.us/index.php/go/joes-blog/comments_about_global_warming/ http://www.basinelectric.com/NewsCenter/News/FeaturedArticles/Greenpeace_founder_d.html http://physicsworld.com/cws/article/print/26945 http://www.heartland.org/Article.cfm?artId=16260

  48. Weather Channel Founder • “It is the greatest scam in history. I am amazed, appalled, and highly offended by it. Global Warming; it is a scam.” • John Coleman

  49. MIT Meteorologist • “(The IPCC) has decided that they have to convince other people that since no scientist disagrees you shouldn’t disagree either. Whenever you hear that in science, it’s pure propaganda.” • Prof. Richard Lindzen

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