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Global Warming and Science

Global Warming and Science. April 21, 2008 Dr. Nicholas Drapela Department of Chemistry, Oregon State University. Who Am I?. Current Faculty, OSU Chemistry Department Education B.S., Science Education, Chemistry and Physics Ph.D., Chemistry, Organic Natural Product Synthesis

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Global Warming and Science

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  1. Global Warmingand Science April 21, 2008 Dr. Nicholas Drapela Department of Chemistry, Oregon State University

  2. Who Am I? • Current Faculty, OSU Chemistry Department • Education • B.S., Science Education, Chemistry and Physics • Ph.D., Chemistry, Organic Natural Product Synthesis • Not a Republican • Own no stocks in oil companies (or any other companies) • Love the outdoors and the environment • Love polar bears and clean air and water

  3. Why This Talk? • The Global Warming social phenomenon • The Global Warming mystery • Scientific perspectives • Journalistic perspectives • A story of discovery

  4. Truth – Some thoughts • The truth has no agenda • The truth is not dependent on consensus, real or artificial • The challenge of finding the truth

  5. Science – The Focus • This talk focuses on the science behind Global Warming • Next week’s talk: Sociopolitical aspects • These talks are intended for general audiences

  6. Introductory Points • Successful societal endeavors must be based on factual information, not popularity • Any new theory bears the burden of proof, not the other way around

  7. Part 1 What is global warming?

  8. Global Warming • The unnatural warming of the entire earth, caused by increases in carbon dioxide due to human activities, which is a threat to life on earth as we know it. • Key points: • Caused by CO2 • produced by human activity • represents serious threat to the earth

  9. http://www.ems.psu.edu/~fraser/Bad/BadGreenhouse.html

  10. What Makes Up This Greenhouse? • Gases in our atmosphere which absorb IR waves and radiate some of the heat back toward the earth • Methane • Nitrous oxide • Chlorofluorocarbons • Carbon dioxide (CO2)

  11. Global Warming Doctrine • Modern society burns fossil fuels such as • Gasoline, natural gas, coal • All of these give off CO2 as they burn • The added CO2 in the atmosphere increases the greenhouse effect on the earth • This is increasing the temperature of the earth beyond its normal range • Soon, this will result in disastrous consequences for life on earth • The only way to avoid this is to reduce world CO2 emissions

  12. Predictions From Global Warming • Rising sea levels • Massive drought • Food shortages • Species extinction • Severe natural disasters • Disease, famine, death http://climate-change.suite101.com/article.cfm/global_warming_predictions http://www.worldwildlife.org/climate/science/arcticReport.cfm

  13. Global Warming Philosophy • This is an existential world crisis • We are running out of time

  14. Part 2 None of this is true

  15. Preview • There is no factual evidence to show that the earth is now above its normal, historical temperature range. • There is no factual evidence to show that it soon will be, or ever will be. • Even if it were, CO2 could not be causing it.

  16. CO2 Is Not a Pollutant • It is a critical part of the biosphere • Without CO2, life could not exist • Asbestos, dioxin, chlorofluorocarbons, heavy metal ions, organomercury compounds…these are pollutants =

  17. Fact #1 • There is indeed a greenhouse effect on the earth; and that is good • If there were not, the earth’s temperature would drop by roughly 60°F, ending life as we know it on earth

  18. Fact #2 • Global Warming theory is based on models, not on evidence • These computer models are made up by people, and are limited by • the programmer • our scientific knowledge • the ethics of the people who invent them http://www.physorg.com/news593.html

  19. The Famous Hockey Stick • The only irregular part of the graph is the model, not the data McIntyre, Stephen; Ross McKitrick, Geophysical Research Letters2005, 2, 32

  20. Fact #3 • These models have already shown to be incorrect • Model prediction: Troposphere warming • Actual fact: No significant troposphere warming is occurring • Balloon and satellite data agree on this independently http://www.cnsnews.com/ViewNation.asp?Page=/Nation/archive/200205/NAT20020514b.html

  21. Hurricanes • Model prediction: 2006 worst hurricane year on record • Actual fact: 2006, 2007 two of the calmest hurricane seasons in history • Many other model failures exist http://edition.cnn.com/2006/WEATHER/11/30/hurricanes/index.html http://www.usatoday.com/weather/stormcenter/2005-11-30-hurricane-cycle_x.htm

  22. Past Predictions • “In ten years all important animal life in the sea will be extinct. Large areas of coastline will have to be evacuated because of the stench of dead fish.” • Paul Ehrlich, Center for Conservation Biology, Stanford University • Predicted in 1970

  23. Fact #4 • Global warming predictions commonly change to fit whatever data is most recently discovered • More rain, then less rain • Ice cap melting, then ice cap growing • Drought, then flooding • No piece of information can be used to disprove the doctrine http://www.livescience.com/environment/070531_gw_rainfall.html

  24. Fact #5 • Weather records show that increased human CO2 emissions have been linked to decreased earth temperatures from 1940-1980

  25. Fact #6 • The amount of CO2 released and absorbed by oceans each year dwarfs the amount emitted by humans • 93% of all CO2 in the earth and its atmosphere is contained in the ocean http://www.waterencyclopedia.com/Bi-Ca/Carbon-Dioxide-in-the-Ocean-and-Atmosphere.html

  26. Fact #7 • When oceans warm, they release CO2 • This is why [CO2] has increased and decreased over time

  27. Inconveniently Separated • Temperature/CO2 correlation in ice core records from “An Inconvenient Truth” • Why are the graphs separated?

  28. CO2 Levels Follow Temp Changes • Note on close inspection that CO2lags behind temperature, not the reverse • (Also note that CO2 levels have been naturally varying for eons w/o human fossil fuel emissions)

  29. Fact #8 • The most abundant greenhouse gas in the atmosphere, by far,…is water vapor • 95% of heat trapped in the troposphere is due to water vapor http://www.geyserlandobservatory.org/atmosphere/atmosphere.html http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/alternate/page/environment/appd_d.html

  30. Fact #9 • Other planets in our solar system are warming as well • Numerous studies are showing that Mars, Jupiter, Neptune, and the moon Triton are all warming http://www.usatoday.com/tech/science/space/2006-05-04-jupiter-jr-spot_x.htm?POE=TECISVA http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2007/2006GL028764.shtml http://www.scienceagogo.com/news/19980526052143data_trunc_sys.shtml http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/1998/triton.html http://motls.blogspot.com/2006/05/global-warming-on-jupiter.html

  31. Martian Icecaps • The icecaps on Mars are melting • If CO2 is the culprit, why is Mars also warming? http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2007/02/070228-mars-warming.html

  32. Martian Warming • "Mars has global warming, but without a greenhouse and without the participation of Martians.” • Dr. Habibullo Abdussamatov Director, Space Research Laboratory Pulkovo Astronomical Observatory Russian Academy of Science http://www.nationalpost.com/story.html?id=edae9952-3c3e-47ba-913f-7359a5c7f723&k=0

  33. Fact #10 • In the last 4 months, almost all “lost” polar ice has returned • This fact is reported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) http://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/global_warming_or_cooling/2008/02/19/73798.html

  34. Growing Ice Caps • “The ice between Canada and southwestern Greenland has reached its highest level in 15 years.” • Meteorological Institute of Denmark, 2008 • Levels of Antarctic ice are also increased—one third higher than normal for this time of year http://newsbusters.org/blogs/lynn-davidson/2008/02/16/western-greenland-ice-growing-still-global-warming

  35. Polar Bear Party • Despite popular media portrayal, polar bear numbers are increasing • Canadian government survey: Polar bear population has increased 250% in last 20 years • The indigenous Inuit people report the same http://www.nationalpost.com/news/story.html?id=1ea8233f-14da-4a44-b839-b71a9e5df868

  36. Fact #11 • When compared with larger-timeframe historical temperatures, current earth temperatures are in the normal range

  37. Poor Sample of History? • “We have made ourselves a very poor experiment, because instrumental meteorological observations started precisely at the lowest temperature observed in the past 10,000 years.” • Jørgen Peder Steffensen, Curator Geophysics, Niels Bohr Institute

  38. Confirming Data • C-14 samples from tree rings and peat bogs confirm this historical temperature pattern • So do data from stalactite caves in China and North Africa

  39. Fact #12 • Global Warming Theory arose essentially overnight, as a political product of the United Nations, with little or no scientific scrutiny Graphic from 1990 report by International Panel on Climate Change

  40. Historical Records and Accounts • Medieval Warm Period (ca. 1100-1400 AD) • Little Ice Age (ca. 1600-1800 AD)

  41. Mann’s Hockey Stick, 1998 • Dr. Michael Mann, Adjunct Asst. Professor, University of Massachusetts

  42. A Memory Hole? • In Mann’s paper, the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age became non-events • Selective data is chosen and displayed alongside speculative statistical data

  43. “An increasing body of observations gives a collective picture of a warming world and other changes in the climate system.” • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2001, Lead Author – Michael Mann

  44. The IPCC • The International Panel on Climate Change is a body of the United Nations • It is not a scientific body; it is a political body

  45. Climate Change Authority • The IPCC is a self-appointed world authority on climate change • The structure of the IPCC, 1990 • Working Group 1 (Science) • Working Group 2 (Sociology, Economics) • Working Group 3 (Public Policy) • The curious role of scientists in the IPCC

  46. IPCC on Itself • “The IPCC work aims at the promotion of the United Nations goals.” • “When governments accept IPCC reports, they acknowledge their legitimacy.” • “The IPCC produces regular reports which immediately become standard works of reference.” http://www.john-daly.com/hockey/hockey.htm

  47. Global Warming in the Media2006

  48. Fact #13 • Despite strenuous and expensive propaganda attempts to claim consensus and the end of debate, Global Warming theory is becoming less scientifically accepted each year • 2008 International Conference on Climate Change, New York • March 2-4, 2008

  49. Non-Believers • John Coleman, Founder of the Weather Channel • Dr. Patrick Moore, Founder of Greenpeace • Prof. Richard Lindzen, MIT Meteorology and climate expert • Dr. Willile Soon, Harvard Physicist http://icecap.us/index.php/go/joes-blog/comments_about_global_warming/ http://www.basinelectric.com/NewsCenter/News/FeaturedArticles/Greenpeace_founder_d.html http://physicsworld.com/cws/article/print/26945 http://www.heartland.org/Article.cfm?artId=16260

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