Global Warming and Science

1. Global Warming and Science So far the balanced story of basic science is not getting through to the public There is at least one alternate hypothesis and a new theory Fran Manns, Artesian Geological Research, Toronto Artesian Geological Research

2. What is Global Warming? • Throughout time the Earth’s climate has varied • Since the base of the Pleistocene (1.8 M ya) there have been at least 30 glacial - interglacial cycles of 40,000 years to 100,000 years duration with interglacial periods warmer than now between them • Sea level has risen 125 metres in the past 20,000 years. That 6 mm a year (arithmetic average). • ICPP recently cited 2-3 mm a year – one might say it’s slowing down. • The world’s coastal tribes have flood myths because they migrated around the world and lived upon the continental shelves • Between glacial ages the climate varies due to external and internal influences – some result in cooling. Others allow the Earth to warm • There are short-term cycles – e.g. ‘El Niño’, among others: for example - the 10 to 12 year long solar energy cycles, and cycles that relate to oscillation of Atlantic and Pacific ocean masses, and the Milankovich orbital cycle. Artesian Geological Research

3. Pennekamp Park – Key Largo SCOOP - “Reefs keep pace with 125 metre sea level rise” Artesian Geological Research

4. Athabasca Glacier has been receding since the Little Ice Age Artesian Geological Research

5. Moraine From the Little Ice Age Artesian Geological Research

6. Solar System Perspective Artesian Geological Research

7. What If? • If The atmosphere did not absorb incoming heat, we would roast all day and freeze-dry at night and end up like sun-dried tomatoes • Mercury - + 427 to – 172 ºC • Mars - temperate zone soil + 27 to – 80 ºC • Moon - + 107 to - 153 ºC Artesian Geological Research

8. What is the Greenhouse Effect? • Certain gasses in the atmosphere are alleged to absorb heat energy and reduce the amount that escapes into space • This ‘trapping’ of heat from our only source of warmth – the Sun – by the atmosphere is known as the ‘Greenhouse Effect’ • This gives us a global average temperature of +15°C rather than -18°C if we had no Greenhouse Effect • An hypothesis unsupported by experiment – could be cloud cover alone…the jury is out Artesian Geological Research

9. Important Facts • Water vapour is the most important greenhouse gas - ~ 60 - 98% of the greenhouse effect is due to water vapour in the atmosphere (jury still out) • CO2 and other minor gasses account for the remainder Artesian Geological Research

10. Contribution to the Greenhouse Effect (including water vapour) http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/greenhouse_data.html Artesian Geological Research

11. Is Global Warming Happening? • Lets examine some very wiggly curves • Death Valley California (not much urban growth here) - Artesian Geological Research

12. Berkeley California Artesian Geological Research

13. No global warming here Artesian Geological Research

14. Blaine Washington Artesian Geological Research

15. New York NY Artesian Geological Research

16. Albany NY Artesian Geological Research

17. Michael Crichton - “State of Fear”, December 2004, Harper Collins • New York city has a fever but why not Albany? Artesian Geological Research

18. Harrisburg Pa – Civil War gap Artesian Geological Research

19. Chicago Illinois Artesian Geological Research

20. Buffalo NY Artesian Geological Research

21. Key West Florida Artesian Geological Research

22. Global Warming • Typically the majority of weather stations yield corrupt time series data • Those weather stations are located where people are living. Thus, it is far from a random sample of the surface of the world, rather a measure of increasing human density • Death Valley, Key West,, and Blaine are far (remote) from urban centres and are likely more reliable Who knows about Berkeley? Albany vs. New York City? • Since 1979, temperatures have been measured from satellites. Not surprisingly, these measurements give a much smaller warming. Artesian Geological Research

23. Realistically • The planet is not warming in the dramatic manner the alarmists claim • There are many other sites that demonstrate cooling • I accept slow climate change but not the drama • EARTH’S CLIMATE IS ALWAYS CHANGING • I do not accept the popular ‘cause’ – CO2 • Why are the graphs so wiggly? • Because climate is not weather Artesian Geological Research

24. Niagara Falls NY – 1911 The next Ice Age predicted… Artesian Geological Research

25. “Relax, the planet is fine…”National Post - Earth Day 07 The Wegman Report: Ad Hoc Committee on the Hockey Stick Global Climate Reconstruction, This report was authored by Edward J. Wegman, George Mason University, David W. Scott, Rice University, and Yasmin H. Said, The Johns Hopkins University Artesian Geological Research

26. Thompson, Lonnie G. et al. (2006) Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 103, 10536-10543Fig. 6. Climate reconstructions over the last two centuries [SIC : millennia].Medieval warm period missing – Little Ice Age ??? Artesian Geological Research

27. Kamél, 2003 • “In the past couple of years, new and better analysis of the Antarctic ice data, giving a better time resolution, have shown that first temperature rises, and then carbon dioxide levels increase. It is the temperature increase which causes the increase in CO2 and not the other way around. • The extra CO2 could at most add a little extra warming to what is going on, but not even that is certain”. Artesian Geological Research

28. CO2 increase in the atmosphere is a trailing phenomenon Throughout the greatest temperature transitions experienced by the planet over the past 420,000 years, atmospheric CO2 concentration has been proven to have been a follower, and not a leader, of climate change, rising from one to five thousand years after major increases in air temperature, and falling in similar manner throughout the course of the past four glacial/interglacial cycles (Mudelsee, M., 2001). Artesian Geological Research

29. CO2 has inverse solubility in liquid • Solubility of solids increases directly with temperature of the solvent • sugar dissolves more rapidly in hot water than cold • Carbon dioxide dissolves quickly in cold water and evolves rapidly out of warm water • Don’t shake your Doctor Pepper! Artesian Geological Research

30. Observations • Warming precedes CO2 increase - likely due to warming of the oceans • CO2 has inverse solubility in liquid (warm your Guinness to see this effect) • CO2 has a geometrically wasting greenhouse gas effect – more CO2– less effectiveness Artesian Geological Research

31. And… • You might say, and ‘alarmists’ say every day, that the new anthropogenic CO2 from the industrial revolution is tipping the climate over into uncontrollable heating… Artesian Geological Research

32. Water vapour is the most important greenhouse gas • The most variable component of the atmosphere is water in its various phases such as vapour, cloud droplets, and ice crystals. Water vapour is the strongest greenhouse gas. For these reasons and because the transition between the various phases absorb and release so much energy, water vapour is central to the climate and its variability and change. Climate Change 2001: The Scientific BasisSection 1.1.2 The Climate System Artesian Geological Research

33. Absorption wavelength CO2 vs. H2O Three CO2 absorption wavelengths at 1.4, 1.9, and 2.4 μm cannot compete with nine H2O bands Artesian Geological Research

34. Beck, Ernst-Georg, 2007: 180 Years of Atmospheric CO2 Measurements by Chemical Means, Energy and Environment, Vol. 8 No.2 March. Artesian Geological Research

35. Beck, Ernst-Georg, 2007: 180 Years of Atmospheric CO2 Measurements by Chemical Means, Energy and Environment, Vol. 8 No.2 March. Artesian Geological Research

36. Beck, Ernst-Georg, 2007: 180 Years of Atmospheric CO2 Measurements by Chemical Means, Energy and Environment, Vol. 8 No.2 March. Artesian Geological Research

37. Beck, Ernst-Georg, 2007: 180 Years of Atmospheric CO2 Measurements by Chemical Means, Energy and Environment, Vol. 8 No.2 March. Artesian Geological Research

38. CO2 data used by the UN ICPP has fatal flaws • Beck shows several instances when CO2 was higher than today at Mauna Loa • Most recently (1942) CO2 exceeded 400 ppm • Cynics would say the Beck (2007)data are regionalized variables and realists might say “Why use Mauna Loa, an active volcano that emits CO2?” Artesian Geological Research

39. UN ICPP 1740 – 2000 Artesian Geological Research

40. ICPP CO2 data is F(Flawed)UBAR Artesian Geological Research

41. Downward forcing - all greenhouse gasses - vs. increasing CO2 content-Willis Eschenbach Artesian Geological Research

42. CO2 Feedback effect • Has a geometrically wasting property (Kamél, 2003) • Analogous to Venetian blinds and light • Adding a second and third set of Venetian blinds to the same window becomes decreasingly effective in blocking outgoing light • More CO2– less additional greenhouse effect • Increase in CO2 has less effect because • Carbon dioxide in the Earth's atmosphere has exactly one important spectral line in the infrared part of the spectrum. This line is clearly saturated. • If you increase the number of CO2 molecules in the atmosphere, not much will happen Artesian Geological Research

43. Well then what is the likely cause ? Artesian Geological Research

44. Look up! - recognise the variation is in the fourth significant digit Artesian Geological Research

45. CO2 vs. Friis-Christensen and Lassen (Science, 1991) "Dr. Tim Patterson after Friis-Christensen & Lassen, 1991" Artesian Geological Research

46. CO2 and Temperature Anomaly • Temperature rise preceded CO2 from 1890 to 1950 • CO2 does not correlate with temperature anomaly from 1940 to 1970 • Temperature rise does correlate with solar activity • CO2 rise cannot be a cause of warming Artesian Geological Research

47. Friis-Christensen and Lassen (1991) Science Magazine • 95% correlation between sunspot peak frequency and the temperature anomaly • Sunspot curve, moreover, leads the temperature curve • But, correlation is not causation • What is the cause? Artesian Geological Research

48. The subtle part… • It is not only the number of sunspots… • It is not only the heat flux… • It is not only the peak frequency… Artesian Geological Research

49. Danish National Space Centre • “It is already well-established that when cosmic rays, which are high-speed atomic particles originating in exploded stars far away in the Milky Way, penetrate the Earth’s atmosphere, they produce substantial amounts of ions and release free electrons. • …results from the Danish experiment show that the released electrons play a significant role in promoting the formation of building blocks for cloud condensation nuclei, on which water vapor condenses to make clouds. Hence, a causal mechanism by which cosmic rays can facilitate the production of clouds in Earth’s atmosphere has been experimentally identified for the first time.” • http://www.spacecenter.dk/publications/press-releases/getting-closer-to-the-cosmic-connection-to-climate Artesian Geological Research

50. Danish Space Centre Theory • ‘Active’ sun → enhanced magnetic and thermal flux = solar wind→geomagnetic shieldresponse→ less low-level clouds → less albedo (less heat reflected)  → warmer climate • Less active sun → reduced magnetic and thermal flux = reduced solar wind → geomagnetic shield drops → galactic cosmic ray flux→ more low-level clouds → More snow → more albedo (more heat reflected) →colder climate • That's how the bulk of climate change works • Coupled with sunspot peak frequency there are cycles of global warming and cooling like waves in the ocean • When the waves are closely spaced, the planet warms Artesian Geological Research