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PV Forecasting RFP

PV Forecasting RFP. Bill Blevins Sep. 24, 2014. Projected Installed Capacity of PV in ERCOT. PV Short-term Forecast. Value of solar forecasts to bulk power system reliability To assist the balancing area operators in performing their duties

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PV Forecasting RFP

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  1. PV Forecasting RFP Bill Blevins Sep. 24, 2014

  2. Projected Installed Capacity of PV in ERCOT

  3. PV Short-term Forecast • Value of solar forecasts to bulk power system reliability • To assist the balancing area operators in performing their duties • To enhance the economic efficiency and manage bulk power system reliability operational affects on the remainder of the generation fleet • Key Features: • Address photovoltaics (PV) only • Centralized solar forecast • Benefits of size • Different forecasts for different uses and time periods • Next hours forecast • Next day forecast • Unbiased forecast typically the 50% POE (probability of exceedance)

  4. Experiences with Wind Forecast at ERCOT and Potential Needs for PV Forecast Short Term Wind Power Forecast • Delivery: Hourly - 15 minutes after the hour (may change this) • Forecast period: rolling 48 hour ahead forecast • Forecast parameters for each WGR • Average hourly MW • 50% POE MW (labeled as STWPF used for COP) • 80% POE MW (labeled as WGRPP)

  5. NPRR 615 PVGR Forecasting • PVGRPP PhotoVoltaic Generation Resource Production Potential • STPPF Short-Term PhotoVoltaic Power Forecast • PVGRPhotoVoltaic Generation Resource Approved by Board of Directors on Aug. 12, 2014

  6. Solar Power Forecast Challenge Factors that Affect Solar Power • Global Solar Irradiance (~90%), • Temperature (~10%), • Wind (<1%) • Type of Plant • Determines exact impact of all three factors • Categories of plants: (1) PV, (2) Concentrating PV, (3) Solar thermal (also concentrating) • PV is sensitive to Global Irradiance • Concentrating types (thermal and PV) are sensitive to Direct Normal Irradiance • Also significant sensitivity variations within basic categories

  7. Making the Best Forecast for Various Time Scales Minutes Ahead • Cumulus clouds, small-scale cloud structures, fog • Rapid and erratic evolution; very short lifetimes • Mostly not observed by current sensor network • Tools: persistence, skycams, local irradiance trends • Very difficult to beat a persistence forecast • Need: Data & tools to handle development & dissipation Hours Ahead • Frontal bands, mesoscale bands, fog, thunderstorms • Rapidly changing, short lifetimes • Current sensors detect existence but not structure • Tools: satellite-based cloud advection and NWP • Need: Better forecasts of development & dissipation Days Ahead • “Lows and Highs”, frontal systems • Slowly evolving, long lifetimes • Well observed with current sensor network • Tools: NWP with statistical adjustments • > ~ 10 days- climatology and climate trends • Need: better NWP performance & improved MOS

  8. Timelines of PV Forecasting RFP • 7/23/2014 Optional Notice of Intend to Propose Due • 09/30/2014 Vendor Presentations • 7/16/2014 • RFP release • 08/18/2014 Vendor Proposals Due • 12/01/2014 Anticipated Contract Award • 01/01/2015 Anticipated Contract Start Date Proposed/ Current timeline. May be modified based on expected ability of respondents and ERCOT to complete necessary RFP evaluations.

  9. Data Flow and Dependencies of Renewable Production (PVGR) Potential Forecast

  10. PVGRs Telemetry Meteorological Data Points Plane of Array Irradiance (POA irradiance) is a measure of the total amount of solar energy that is available to an array, based the location of the array and the direction of the modules. POA irradiance is calculated at the module level, and averaged across modules to generate system-level values.

  11. PVPF Process Inputs

  12. PV Forecasting RFP Requirement • STPPF/PVGRPP will be delivered to ERCOT hourly, providing a rolling 48-hour hourly forecast of production potential for each PVGR or the entire ERCOT systems • MTPVGF is an hourly forecast service for PVGR generation and the ERCOT system for the current day and the next 7 days. • The performance of PV forecasting is evaluated based on both accuracy and reliability

  13. Progress on RFP • More than 60 questions were clarified • 8 respondents received in response to RFP • 6 proposals were selected for presentation to narrow down the participants in the RFP • ERCOT is identifying parties to provide presentations on their approach as the next step in commencing solar forecasting.

  14. Bill BlevinceManager Operations PlanningElectric Reliability Council of Texas, Inc.2705 West Lake DriveTaylor, Texas 76574Bill.Blevins@ercot.com

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