Making Scotland’s Rural Environment More Sustainable

1. Overview Making Scotland’s Rural Environment More Sustainable Steve Albon

2. Aims and Thematic Objectives Integrative research based around Scotland’s Natural Resources To help • determine key factors influencing function and resilience and which link to sustainability of Scotland’s ‘quality’ brand. • improve knowledge on hazard identification, the threat that various risks pose, and solutions to adapt and mitigate. • develop appropriate balance of land use: agriculture/forestry, environmental services, recreation, tourism, wildlife refuge.

3. Responding to Climate Change Protecting Biodiversity Sustainability of Rural Scotland Addressing ‘Big’ Policy Issues

4. Wise use of Environment SUSTAINABILITY SUSTAINABILITY Environmental Science Economic prosperity Socialjustice Economic Science SocialScience Sustainable Development (SD) Guiding Principles • Living within environmental limits • Ensuring a healthy and just society • Achieving a sustainable economy • Promoting good governance • Using sound science responsibly

5. Basins of attraction PERTURB RESISTANCE RESILIENCE RESPONSE Redrawn from Ritz et al 2003 TIME Conceptual Frameworks for ‘SD’ Concept of resilience and adaptive cycles (e.g. Gunderson and Holling, 2001) Resilience: the capacity of a system to absorb perturbations and remain in a functionally similar state Multiple stable states: a set of ‘functionally similar’ states for a system

6. Structure of Talk • Background • Responding to Climate Change • Conservation of soil carbon • Protecting Biodiversity • Species Loss • Habitat Loss • Sustainable Rural Development • Values and attitudes Our Approach • Detecting change • Understanding key drivers and mechanisms • Stakeholder involvement • Integrated Modelling • Scenario analysis • Supporting policy development • Knowledge Exchange

7. 1. Responding to Climate Change Mid-Summer Day Challenge Cabinet Secretary for Finance and Sustainable Growth John Swinney announced “We will introduce a Scottish Climate Change Bill and consult on a mandatory long-term target to reduce our emissions by 80% by 2050”. • equivalent to reductions of 3% each year. • consult on proposals for targets based on average annual reductions over a 5 year period.

8. A Low Carbon Rural Economy? Adaptation and mitigation challenges • Rural - Urban connections: carbon (C) footprint of transport • Land use change to reduce Green House Gas emissions • Feasibility of biomass crop and renewable energy • Practices to conserve C and/or sequester more C

9. Conservation of Soil Carbon • Erosion (water and wind) • Floods and landslides • Decline soil organic matter

10. Loss of Soil Organic Matter Survey in England and Wales found significant rate of loss of soil organic matter (SOM) (Bellamy et al 2005) • Scotland no contemporary estimates of SOM but more dissolved organic carbon (DOC) is being found in our lakes and rivers

11. Understanding Changes in DOC • Increases seen in 80% of 160 sites in Scotland • Trend consistent in space & time - climate driver – ToC • But increase in rate varies within & between catchments • Geology, Soils, Land Use?

12. Silica concentration Nitrate concentration Sources of flow Need Multi-disciplinary Science

13. Latest Statistical Methods

14. Is Soil Carbon Changing? National Soils Inventory Scotland • Key points: • Data captured 1978-1987 • 5 km grid (2826 sites), • analytical data at 10 km points (721 sites) • Objective site selection - area estimates • Scottish National Soils Archive

15. Monitoring Change in Soil C 20 km re-sampling, similar to EU, as before aligned to OS Grid To detect change • in key soil properties e.g: carbon • Compare sampling methods e.g: NSRI, CEH • Test suitability of new indicators e.g: bulk density, porosity, measures of biodiversity

16. 2. Protecting Biodiversity Scotland’s Biodiversity Strategy • Species and Habitat – halting loss • People – raising awareness • Landscapes & Ecosystems – enhancing biodiversity • Integration and Coordination – framework for inclusion in all decision making • Knowledge – best new and existing information for stakeholders

17. Reversing loss of biodiversity

18. Species solutions need research

19. Freshwater Pearl Mussel Small Cow Wheat Melampyrum sylvaticum Woolly Willow Salix lanata Priority Species for Action

20. Habitat loss & Landscape change Expansion of forestry Mammalian herbivores can be landscape engineers Across Scotland area heather moor reduced by 25% since 1945

21. How Grazing Impact Varies and which species? Also cattle, rabbits, mountain hare, red grouse

22. Median predicted impact Coarse grassland Dwarf-shrub heath Impact varies with species And density

23. 3. Sustainable Rural Development • What sort of landscape do we want? • Can we mitigate unwanted change? • How can we adapt our demands to ensure the viability of rural livelihoods?

24. Diversification for ‘SD’ Scientific American Stewardship payments • Maintaining biodiversity • Carbon conservation – in particular soil C • Renewable power • Sustainable timber • Water resources – pollution and flood control • Food security - premium

25. ECOLOGICAL DIMENSION Boundary conditions Processes Structures Ecosystem functions Ecosystem services Societal values HUMAN DIMENSION Human-Environment Interactions What are key threats to resource & do we understand change processes? • Provisioning services • benefits from provision food, fibre or fuel • Regulating services • benefits from erosion control, water purification • Cultural services • benefits related to recreation What are relevant issues that emerge from the interaction? What do people value about a resource and the changes to it?

26. Mountaineers • Birdwatchers • Tourists • within Scotland • outside Scotland • Local residents • Foresters • Farmers Human-Nature relationship “sense of place” Values attributed to ‘balance’ of nature Benefits & function of biodiversity Values, Attitudes and Behaviour • Emerging issues not based on expert knowledge alone, explicitly include ‘lay’ stakeholders’ perceptions • Lay stakeholders’ understanding contingent on translation process and perception, prior knowledge and experience Focus Groups Beliefs/Values Attitudes • General view on biodiversity management • Specific attitude towards particular measures • Not all ecosystem functions easily ‘translatable’ to allow lay stakeholders to make meaningful value judgements!

27. Institutions and Property Rights Feasibility of Exclusion YES NO Private Common Pool YES • Sheep farm • Estate quarry • Deer population Rivalry in consumption Club Public NO • Crofter’s grazings • Landscape Interactions with Governance • Economic – market orientated • Regulatory - fines • Voluntary - cooperation

28. Stakeholder Involvement • Who is currently involved? • What interest do they represent? • How is their involvement shaping the plan? • How can conflicts of interest be resolved ? • Innovative, interactive process – see this afternoon’s workshop!

29. Reduce Uncertainty Knowledge of Processes Environmental Stakeholder Involvement Scenario analysis Economic Social Developing Intervention Strategies Evaluating Policy Development of Indicators Summary: Science Integral to ‘SD’ Analysing Change Programme 3

30. Acknowledgements Work Package Coordinators Helaina Black Iain Brown Alison Hester Rupert Hough Simon Langan Keith Matthews Robin Pakeman Alan Renwick Andy Vinten Speakers & Workshop Facilitators Kirsty Blackstock Colin Campbell Bob Ferrier Alison Hester Wendy Kenyon Alan Renwick Graphics & Logistics John Brown Pat Carnegie Jane Lund Lorraine Robertson All the Poster authors/presenters Staff of Main Research Providers Programme 3 Advisory Board Michael Usher, Maggie Gill and Ian Bainbridge