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POSSIBILITIES AND MYTHS ON THE POTENTIAL ECONOMIC AND TRANSPORT EFFECTS OF THE DANUBE STRATEGY, WITH SPECIAL REGARD T

POSSIBILITIES AND MYTHS ON THE POTENTIAL ECONOMIC AND TRANSPORT EFFECTS OF THE DANUBE STRATEGY, WITH SPECIAL REGARD TO SERBIA. Tamás Fleischer Institute for World Economics of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences http://www.vki.hu/~tfleisch/ tfleisch@vki.hu.

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POSSIBILITIES AND MYTHS ON THE POTENTIAL ECONOMIC AND TRANSPORT EFFECTS OF THE DANUBE STRATEGY, WITH SPECIAL REGARD T

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  1. POSSIBILITIES AND MYTHS ON THE POTENTIAL ECONOMIC AND TRANSPORT EFFECTS OF THE DANUBE STRATEGY, WITH SPECIAL REGARD TO SERBIA Tamás Fleischer Institute for World Economics of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences http://www.vki.hu/~tfleisch/tfleisch@vki.hu „Danube – Strongest Link to EU: EU Danube strategy and contributions from Serbia” International Conference organised by theFriedrich Ebert Foundation Belgrad, May 7, 2010.

  2. POSSIBILITIES AND MYTHS ON THE POTENTIAL ECONOMIC AND TRANSPORT EFFECTS OF THE DANUBE STRATEGY… • Danube Strategy: expectations and realities • Danube and inland navigation: myths and facts • Conclusions

  3. POSSIBILITIES AND MYTHS ON THE POTENTIAL ECONOMIC AND TRANSPORT EFFECTS OF THE DANUBE STRATEGY… • Hurrah, hurrah !Here is the new possibility to get EU money ! • DG Regional Policy: three NO-s • No new legislation… …because of the Danube Strategy • No new institution … …because of the Danube Strategy • No extra money… …for the Danube Strategy

  4. POSSIBILITIES AND MYTHS ON THE POTENTIAL ECONOMIC AND TRANSPORT EFFECTS OF THE DANUBE STRATEGY… • So what is the Danube Strategy at the moment? • A promise to Germany to reinforce itseconomic positions in the area • A promise to Austria on a better cooperation within its old Empire • A promise to Slovakia to become a huge inland navigation hub between the Baltic Sea, the Black Sea and the North Sea • A promise to Hungary to achieve a leading role in a well-paid but not really defined European cooperation • A promise to Croatia and Serbia about an quick reception in the Central / European communities • etc. etc. We can (or can’t) imagine the range of dreams… • …that is the Danube Strategy is a dream-collector at the moment, where all interested groups can hang their dreams on

  5. POSSIBILITIES AND MYTHS ON THE POTENTIAL ECONOMIC AND TRANSPORT EFFECTS OF THE DANUBE STRATEGY… • The Danube valley is a macro-region of Europe • What is a Macro-Region? "There is no standard definition for a macro-region [...]. The definition applied here, developed during the preparation of the European Union Strategy for the Baltic Sea Region, will be “an area including territory from a number of different countries or regions associated with one or more common features or challenges.” Source: Macro-regional Strategies in the European Union - published on the Website of DG Regional Policy • Macro region: Co-operation of countries having a similar cohesion background (From an early paper of the Hungarian Foreign Ministry)

  6. POSSIBILITIES AND MYTHS ON THE POTENTIAL ECONOMIC AND TRANSPORT EFFECTS OF THE DANUBE STRATEGY… • Positive approach • (1) A good sample of different EU countries: a longitudinal section of the oldest, the old, the newer and the future EU member countries • (2)Symbolic meaning of the Danube: Rhine as a symbol of the EC of the old EU founders – Danube as a symbol of the extended EU =>

  7. RHINE AS A LINK WITHIN THE FOUNDERS OF THE EC

  8. POSSIBILITIES AND MYTHS ON THE POTENTIAL ECONOMIC AND TRANSPORT EFFECTS OF THE DANUBE STRATEGY… • Positive approach • (1) A good sample of different EU countries: a longitudinal section of the oldest, the old, the newer and the future EU member countries • (2)Symbolic meaning of the Danube: Rhine as a symbol of the EC of the old EU founders – Danube as a symbol of the extended EU => • (3) „CADSES” (InterReg Cooperation Areas 2000-2006) Central European, Adriatic, Danubian and South-Eastern European Space (cooperation area) =>

  9. Co-operation areas INTERREG III.B (2000-2006)cooperation areas CADSES = Central European, Adriatic, Danubian and South-Eastern Europeancooperation area. All those areas were swept together, that were remote and unimportant from the point of „Brussels” Non-cooperating Source: INTERREG areas.http://europa.eu.int/comm/regional_policy/interreg3/images/pdf/int3b_uk_a4p.pdf

  10. Co-operation areas INTERREG III.B (2000-2006) cooperation areas CADSES = Central European, Adriatic, Danubian and South-Eastern European cooperation area. Forrás: INTERREG térségek.

  11. The Danube watershed basin • The Danube watershed covers the landlocked regions of the CADSES area

  12. POSSIBILITIES AND MYTHS ON THE POTENTIAL ECONOMIC AND TRANSPORT EFFECTS OF THE DANUBE STRATEGY… • Cheap and energy-effective inland navigation? • (1) The myth of the energy effective inland navigation • „Its energy consumption per km/ton of transported goods is approximately 17% of that of road transport and 50% of rail transport.” (Inland waterway transport: What do we want to achieve ? European Communities, Mobility and Transport http://ec.europa.eu/transport/inland/index_en.htm ) • Average self-propelled vessels consume up to 0.0130 litre per ton-km, whereas modern vessels can achieve gas oil consumption as low as 0.0044 litre per ton-km. Compared to rail (0.0095 l/tkm) or road transport (0.0292 l/tkm), average fuel consumption for inland navigation (0.0083 l/tkm) is relatively low. (Opening your door to inland waterway transport in Europe. http://www.naiades.info/faq )

  13. ENERGY USE OF DIFFERENT TRANSPORT MODES (THEORY)

  14. POSSIBILITIES AND MYTHS ON THE POTENTIAL ECONOMIC AND TRANSPORT EFFECTS OF THE DANUBE STRATEGY… • … the weighted average CO2-intensity for rail-freight operationsin the UK is 14.5 gms per tonne-km. This estimate appears relatively low by comparison with the results of previous studies in the UK and elsewhere in Europe. For example, the Rail Emissions Model constructed by AEA Technology (2001) for the SRA used a ratio of 20 gm of CO2 per tonne-km for rail-freight. The TREMOVE study, under-taken by the University of Leuven, assigns a value of 33 gm of CO2 per tonne-km for UK rail-freight operations. Four other recent studies by NTM (2005), WRI-WBCSD (2003), INFRAS (2004) and IFEU (2005) suggest average ratios for European rail-freight operations of, respectively, 17, 30, 38 and 18 (electric) / 35 (diesel) gms / tonne-km. … The movement of freight on inland waterways is also relatively energy efficient, generating around 30-40 gm of CO2 per tonne-km (Dings and Dijkstra, 1997, INFRAS/WWW, 2004). (McKinnon, Alan (2007) CO2 Emissions from Freight Transport in the UK. Report prepared for the Climate Change Working Group of the Commission for Inte-grated Transport. Logistics Research Centre, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh 57 p. http://cfit.independent.gov.uk/pubs/2007/climatechange/pdf/2007climatechange-freight.pdf )

  15. ENERGY USE OF DIFFERENT TRANSPORT MODES (PRACTICE) McKinnon, Alan (2007) CO2 Emissions from Freight Transport in the UK. Report prepared for the Climate Change Working Group of the Commission for Integrated Transport. Logistics Research Centre, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh 57 p. http://cfit.independent.gov.uk/pubs/2007/climatechange/pdf/2007climatechange-freight.pdf THE MESSAGE: RAIL AND INLAND WATERWAYS: BOTH ARE GOOD ENOUGH

  16. POSSIBILITIES AND MYTHS ON THE POTENTIAL ECONOMIC AND TRANSPORT EFFECTS OF THE DANUBE STRATEGY… • (2) Cheap inland navigation • Even if the inland navigation is cheap, the argument, that it makes the producer more competitive – because of the bigger export action-radius and the cheaper import – is dubious. The export and the import of the producer is really cheaper but at the other end of the route for the remote other producer the circumstances are similarly better. The relative price between the two producer not necessarily has changed, it depends on other factors which of them is more competitive relative to each other. • To be more correct: the external competitiveness of the linked area can be better, because of the cheaper internal transport, better internal links. It is another question that within the area who is the winner of this extra competitiveness: this depends on other factors and not on the transport price within the region.

  17. INLAND NAVIGATION 2006 • Share of the inland navigation, the total goods transport of the given country is always 100 % [ton/km %] Source: Eurostat 2007.

  18. Map Waterways Europe http://www.inlandnavigation.org

  19. POSSIBILITIES AND MYTHS ON THE POTENTIAL ECONOMIC AND TRANSPORT EFFECTS OF THE DANUBE STRATEGY… • The two main international inland waterways in Western Europe and South-Eastern Europe are the Rhine and the Danube where around 208 and 73 million tonnes of goods were carried in 2008 respectively. On the Rhine, these goods are carried by some 5,500 self-propelled cargo vessels, around 1,000 tankers and 1,100 pushed barges. On the Danube, around 2,600 dry and around 330 tank barges are in operation together with around 200 self-propelled vessels (UNECE Inland Transport Committee Policy Segment Sustainable Transport Development: The Case of Inland Water Transport 23 February 2010 Palais des Nations Panel Discussion: Can Inland Water Transport become Competitive and an Integral Part of Global Supply Chains? Note by the UNECE secretariat http://www.unece.org/trans/events/docs/inlandtransport_2010_Background_Document.pdf )

  20. Two types of seaports TEN-T EU-25 sea- and sea/inland ports Seaports, category class ’A’ http://ec.europa.eu/ten/transport/maps/doc/schema/seaports/2003_accession_seaports_cat_a_eu25.pdf

  21. Hamburg, horn-mouth of the river

  22. Constanta and the Danube delta mouth

  23. Constanta and theDanube–Black Sea Canal

  24. Traffic 1991 Traffic of the Rhine water-system in 1991

  25. Conclusion: Is inland navigation rentable ? • Yes, • The price pro tonne/km is „cheap” – ifthe river-bed, the port, the fleet, the personnel, the goods are all given • River-bed: different profile at the Rhine and the Danube • Fleet: different because of the different profile • Goods: bulk materials – one could get it from the rail ? • Personnel: (depends on countries) • Ports: needs bigger development • „the western sample” „the Rhine model” NL 33 % D, B 13-15 % three countries, with special sea links, river mouths, built canal network • The possibilities to lift the time-window of the navigability of the Danube from 60 % to 82 % • Who would pay it ? And who would become more competitive ?

  26. The Danube is navigable !

  27. Conclusion: Is the Danube-valley cooperation rentable ? • Yes ! • We can’t build our future without a strong cooperation… • …but we have to get rid of those prefabricated projects built on dreams and myths… • …and form a common system of objectives, with integration of all countries touched… • …and also with the integration of all sustainable transport modes – instead of playing a 0-sum game between them • That can be a good objective for a Danube Strategy

  28. POSSIBILITIES AND MYTHS ON THE POTENTIAL ECONOMIC AND TRANSPORT EFFECTS OF THE DANUBE STRATEGY, WITH SPECIAL REGARD TO SERBIA THANK YOU FOR YOUR KIND ATTENTION ! Tamás Fleischer Institute for World Economics of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences http://www.vki.hu/~tfleisch/tfleisch@vki.hu „Danube – Strongest Link to EU: EU Danube strategy and contributions from Serbia” International Conference organised by the Friedrich Ebert Foundation Belgrad, May 7, 2010.

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