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AIRES (Atmospheric Integrated REgional System)

I. Historical background. II. Objectives. III. AIRES in few words. IV. Assessment : 2001 ESCOMPTE, 2003, 2004. V . Conclusion and questions. AIRES (Atmospheric Integrated REgional System) AIRES from occitan language « Aire » [ajré] n.m. : air

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AIRES (Atmospheric Integrated REgional System)

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  1. I. Historical background II. Objectives III. AIRES in few words IV. Assessment : 2001 ESCOMPTE, 2003, 2004 V. Conclusion and questions AIRES (Atmospheric Integrated REgional System) AIRES from occitan language « Aire » [ajré] n.m. : air Air Quality Forecasts and Simulations in PACA region • A. Armengaud4, S. Fayet4, D. Robin4, G. Causera4, O. Sanchez3,A. Mangin3, • F. Rouffi3, B. Théodore3, O. Hembise3, R. Vautard1, F. Lasry2, I. Coll2 • 1 – LMD : Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, Palaiseau • 2 – LISA, Creteil • 3 – ACRI-ST, Sophia-Antipolis • 4 – AIRMARAIX, Marseille

  2. HISTORICAL background 2001 : SCIENTIFIC PROGRAM ESCOMPTE EMISSIONS INVENTORY CADASTRE MODELLING EXERCICE ESCOMPTE 2005 : OPERATIONAL REGIONAL SYSTEM ESCOMPTE Spin-off DAILY FORECAST AND SIMULATION OF AIR QUALITY IN PACA REGION

  3. Forecasts 24h, 48h OBJECTIVES Daily Observations Network PACA Monitoring survey Analyse and valuation Air Quality Tomorrow Yesterday Today Tendancy • Improvement of monitoring survey • Improvement of understanding • Maps

  4. AIRES in few words • AIRES (Atmospheric Integrated REgional System) : • Air quality forecast and simulation system in PACA region (Provence Alpes Côte d’Azur). Daily 3D forecasts of ozone, nitrogen oxides, aerosols and others pollutants. • based on CHIMERE and MM5 models (www.mmm.ucar.edu/mm5/). • Chemical boundary conditions : from PREV’AIR (www.prevair.org). • AIRES provides fine resolution forecasts at 12h, 24h and 48h over 3 different areas (ESCOMPTE, NICE and whole PACA). • Partners : ACRI-ST (www.acri-st.fr), IPSL and LISA, CHIMERE research team (http://euler.lmd.polytechnique.fr/chimere/index.html).

  5. AIRES in few words Monitoring Survey Model + obs. Geostatistical process (from INERIS) 3 modes : Forecast Scenario Outside of PACA CHIMERE MM5 www.prevair.org 1km-3km

  6. www.enviport.org/AAM

  7. MESO-NHC Assessment AIRES is taking part in the ESCOMPTE modelling exercise with ACRI-ST participation. Example of comparison between MESO-NHC, CHIMERE-ACRI and observations 12h T.U. 21st of June 2001, IOP2a. CHIMERE-ACRI Observations

  8. Assessment Comparison between ozone temporal profile from AIX PLATANES ground station (black dots) and CHIMERE-ACRI (model, bold violet line). Others color lines represent all models involved in the ESCOMPTE modelling exercise.

  9. Assessment Comparison between ozone vertical profile from ALTO LIDAR (observations, left) and CHIMERE-ACRI (model, right) during IOP2b.

  10. Begining of the episode 30thof July for 1st of August Assessment SUMMER 2003 : first try by Dr. Robert Vautard MM5+CHIMERE over ESCOMPTE 240 µg/m3 180 µg/m3 From 1/08/2003 to 16/08/2003 16 consecutives days

  11. OBS D+1 Still no O3 31st of july D+2

  12. OBS D+1 Begining of the episode 1st of August D+2

  13. During the episode SUMMER 2003 240 µg/m3 180 µg/m3 From 1/08/2003 to 16/08/2003 17 consecutives days 03 peak

  14. OBS D+1 D+2

  15. OBS D+1 Etc … D+2

  16. SUMMER 2003 Finally : 15th for 17th 240 µg/m3 180 µg/m3 From 1/08/2003 to 16/08/2003 16 consecutives days 03 peak

  17. OBS D+1 D+2

  18. PERSISTENCE SUMMER 2003 START END 240 µg/m3 180 µg/m3 From 1/08/2003 to 16/08/2003 16 consecutives days 03 peak

  19. SUMMER 2004 240 µg/m3 180 µg/m3 Example : 23rd of July

  20. OBS D-1 This system was operational in summer 2004 South West Breaze 23 July 2004

  21. OBS D+1 D+0 D+2 23 July 2004

  22. STATISTICS SUMMER 2004 40 days [O3] > 180 µg/m3 28 dys : 2000 66 dys : 2003 Forecasted / Observed % validated by a expert 04 84 J : 90 % J+1 : 80 % 06 J : 100 % J+1 : 85 % J : 100 % J+1 : 50 % Composed Breaze : Weak Mistral + South Breaze OVER-ESTIMATION In VAR Link with Boundary Conditions. NCEP download. Met files are not always available at the right moment. 83 13 J : 60 % J+1 : 50 % J : 78 % J+1: 68 %

  23. CONCLUSION • AIRES is • Operationnal : Forecast, survey, scenario • Validated : (still in progress) • summers 2001 (ESCOMPTE), 2003 and 2004 • Provide daily datasets to experts who analyze air quality over the PACA region. • This information is taken into account for regional regulation information. • Upgreadeable et modular(links with IPSL, LISA, ACRI-ST) • In the near future: • AIRES will be involved in the PRIMEQUAL SCENARIOS PROGRAM. • It will be able to evaluate the different impacts of reductions emissions scenarios. • (I. COLL and F. LASRY – LISA) 16h20 today !

  24. QUESTIONS • We are looking for tracks : forecast improvements in PACA region • Does-it possible to start earlier D-1 computation ? Spin-up pb. For the first hours ? • CHIMERE DUST version ? • - Users returns ? • - specials needs (inventory) ? • - computer time versus « CHIMERE GAS version » • - parallel version ? • Exchange with others CHIMERE’s users • Specially with people who are faced with Breazes Phenomena • Pond Breaze • Sea Breaze • Valley Breaze

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