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2012 Crop Market Outlook

2012 Crop Market Outlook. Coleman Research Group Presentation Jan. 20, 2012 Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911. U.S. Corn Supply and Use. Source: USDA-WAOB. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use. Source: USDA-WAOB. U.S. Wheat Supply and Use.

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2012 Crop Market Outlook

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  1. 2012 Crop Market Outlook Coleman Research Group Presentation Jan. 20, 2012 Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911

  2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use Source: USDA-WAOB

  3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use Source: USDA-WAOB

  4. U.S. Wheat Supply and Use Source: USDA-WAOB

  5. 2011 Corn Yields Source: USDA-NASS

  6. 2011 Soybean Yields Source: USDA-NASS

  7. Winter Wheat Production Source: USDA-NASS

  8. Durum Wheat Production Source: USDA-NASS

  9. Other Spring Wheat Production Source: USDA-NASS

  10. World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB

  11. World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB

  12. World Wheat Production Source: USDA-WAOB

  13. Hog Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs. Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig Source: Shane Ellis, ISU Extension

  14. Cattle Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs. Live weight: 1250 pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds Corn: 50 bushels per head Source: Shane Ellis, ISU Extension

  15. Corn vs. Wheat Source: CME Group, 1/17/2012

  16. Corn Export Sales Source: USDA, FAS

  17. Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA, FAS

  18. Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA, FAS

  19. Soybean Export Shifts Source: USDA, FAS

  20. Wheat Export Sales Source: USDA, FAS

  21. Wheat Export Shifts Source: USDA, FAS

  22. Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS)

  23. Ethanol Margins Source: CARD

  24. Ethanol Margins Source: CARD

  25. Ethanol Blending Advantage

  26. Corn Grind for Ethanol Source: DOE-EIA

  27. Ethanol Stocks Source: DOE, EIA

  28. Nearby Futures (Jan. 3, 2011 = 1)

  29. Projected 2011 Season-Average Corn Price

  30. Projected 2011 Season-Average Soy Price

  31. Projected ‘11 Season-Average Wheat Price

  32. Principal Crop Area Source: USDA-NASS

  33. 2012 Winter Wheat Plantings Source: USDA-NASS

  34. Thoughts for 2012 and Beyond • General economic conditions • Continued worldwide economic recovery is a major key for crop prices • Supply/demand concerns • Droughts, floods, etc.; South America now, U.S. this spring • Biofuel growth and energy demand • Will supply be able to keep pace with demand?

  35. Thank you for your time!Any questions?My web site:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/Iowa Farm Outlook:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/Ag Decision Maker:http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/

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