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2012 Crop Market Outlook

Analyzing U.S. corn, soybean, and wheat supply and use data, along with crop production, export sales shifts, ethanol margins, and economic influences for 2012 and beyond. Considerations for global economic recovery, supply/demand concerns, and biofuel growth. Stay informed!

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2012 Crop Market Outlook

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  1. 2012 Crop Market Outlook Coleman Research Group Presentation Jan. 20, 2012 Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911

  2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use Source: USDA-WAOB

  3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use Source: USDA-WAOB

  4. U.S. Wheat Supply and Use Source: USDA-WAOB

  5. 2011 Corn Yields Source: USDA-NASS

  6. 2011 Soybean Yields Source: USDA-NASS

  7. Winter Wheat Production Source: USDA-NASS

  8. Durum Wheat Production Source: USDA-NASS

  9. Other Spring Wheat Production Source: USDA-NASS

  10. World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB

  11. World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB

  12. World Wheat Production Source: USDA-WAOB

  13. Hog Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs. Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig Source: Shane Ellis, ISU Extension

  14. Cattle Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs. Live weight: 1250 pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds Corn: 50 bushels per head Source: Shane Ellis, ISU Extension

  15. Corn vs. Wheat Source: CME Group, 1/17/2012

  16. Corn Export Sales Source: USDA, FAS

  17. Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA, FAS

  18. Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA, FAS

  19. Soybean Export Shifts Source: USDA, FAS

  20. Wheat Export Sales Source: USDA, FAS

  21. Wheat Export Shifts Source: USDA, FAS

  22. Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS)

  23. Ethanol Margins Source: CARD

  24. Ethanol Margins Source: CARD

  25. Ethanol Blending Advantage

  26. Corn Grind for Ethanol Source: DOE-EIA

  27. Ethanol Stocks Source: DOE, EIA

  28. Nearby Futures (Jan. 3, 2011 = 1)

  29. Projected 2011 Season-Average Corn Price

  30. Projected 2011 Season-Average Soy Price

  31. Projected ‘11 Season-Average Wheat Price

  32. Principal Crop Area Source: USDA-NASS

  33. 2012 Winter Wheat Plantings Source: USDA-NASS

  34. Thoughts for 2012 and Beyond • General economic conditions • Continued worldwide economic recovery is a major key for crop prices • Supply/demand concerns • Droughts, floods, etc.; South America now, U.S. this spring • Biofuel growth and energy demand • Will supply be able to keep pace with demand?

  35. Thank you for your time!Any questions?My web site:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/Iowa Farm Outlook:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/Ag Decision Maker:http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/

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