Progressing the GCOS Implementation Plan

1. Progressing the GCOS Implementation Plan Paul Mason GCOS Steering Committee

2. GCOS Strategy • Working with experts and partners to help plan and guide the Implementation of Climate Observing Systems that meet needs for climate information. • Engaging agents for action and for policy • The GCOS Sponsors and their international bodies. • UNFCCC / COP / SBSTA • Other intergovernmental bodies, GEO, CEOS, etc, Partners, and national bodies • Developing Strategies for Resource Mobilisation • Voluntary Donor Fund - GCOS cooperation mechanism

3. Some GCOS Milestones • GCOS 2nd Adequacy Report in Support of the UNFCCC (2003): identified gaps and deficiencies in observing systems for climate • GCOS Implementation Plan in Support of the UNFCCC (2004) : the roadmap for the global climate observing system in the next 5-10 years (in situ, space-based, models, institutions, agents) • September 2006: Publication of GCOS-107 “Systematic Observation Requirements for Satellite-based Products for Climate” (‘Satellite Supplement’ to GCOS IP) • October/November 2006: Publication by Space Agencies (CEOS): “Satellite Observation of the Climate System”; as a response to space component of GCOS IP • Adoption by UNFCCC (2007) of revised national systematic observation reporting guide lines – matching the GCOS IP

4. SBSTA 23 Montreal Under conclusions relating to the GCOS IP • “SBSTA invited the GCOS secretariat to provide a comprehensive report at its thirtieth session (June 2009), on progress with the GCOS implementation plan, in addition to the regular reporting requested by the Conference of the Parties (COP) in decision 5/CP.10”.

5. 2009 IP Progress Report Overview and Action by Action statement of progress • Acknowledging that progress is entirely due to national and partner organisation actions • Explicitly recognising some clear responses as examples but being careful to acknowledge the wider communities involved • Encouraging progress with the many actions that have made partial progress • Honest but diplomatic re some absence of action or changed GCOS goals • Not overly lengthy e.g. 30-40 pages with an executive summary aimed at UNFCCC, WMO etc delegates

6. 2009 IP Progress Report Writing strategy • Main drafting by Panel chairs and representatives of partner observing systems GOOS, GTOS, and WMO with the GCOS secretariat • Dealing with gaps in knowledge by email/telephone and use a few selected experts and the “IP update team” for initial review • Submitted to SBSTA while a draft and under open review • Finalised Summer 2009.

7. GCOS IP 2009 update • An update (not a rewrite) but making corrections, and providing extra detail where it is lacking • Incorporate much of satellite supplement (probably with very minor alteration) • More specific re Atmospheric composition, and Cryosphere but distinguishing between “continuous” global and decadal measurement needs, and supporting research observation needs • Aiming to include regional adaptation needs for ECV’s and raise needs for observations that will help link impacts to physical climate • Prepared with detailed partner consultation and open review.

8. GCOS IP 2009 update • Writing strategy • Main drafting by Expert drafting team of about 30 meeting once, then by emails. • Follow on with just chairs plus selected experts and partners according to need • Length of IP will increase but only to the extent essential for new details • Submitted to SBSTA while a draft and under open review • Finalised North Hemisphere Autumn 2009.

9. Time line for progress report and GCOS IP update

10. Priorities Needs to recognise many factors • Immediate science priorities • Benefits available from timely and “easy” actions • Vital long term time series • Maintaining a balance and recognising potential unexpected issues

11. Sydney review of IPCC FAR science and observation needs • 4. Science Issues Underlined by the Workshop .......................................................................14 • 4.1 Abrupt Climate Change..............................................................................................................14 • 4.1.1 Ice Sheets ...........................................................................................................................14 • 4.1.2 Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) ..........................................................15 • 4.1.3 Methane Release................................................................................................................15 • 4.2 Detecting and Predicting Changes in the Hydrological Cycle, including Extremes ...................16 • 4.2.1 Improving Precipitation Observations, Products and Modelling .........................................16 • 4.2.2 Information on Components of the Hydrological Cycle (Soil moisture, Water vapour) ......17 • 4.2.3 Ocean Component..............................................................................................................18 • 4.2.4 Overarching Recommendations .........................................................................................19 • 4.3 Land Surface Processes, the Carbon Cycle and Biogeochemical Feedbacks..........................19 • 4.3.1 Carbon Cycle Models and Feedbacks................................................................................19 • 4.3.2 Carbon Cycle Observations ................................................................................................20 • 4.3.3 Urgent Needs in Carbon Cycle Research...........................................................................21 • 4.4 Aerosol-Cloud Interactions and Radiative Forcing.....................................................................21 • 4.4.1 Scientific Relevance and Importance..................................................................................21 • 4.4.2 Availability of New Data ......................................................................................................22 • 4.4.3 Model-model and Model-observation Comparisons ...........................................................22 • 4.4.4 Separation of Direct and Indirect Forcing ...........................................................................22 • 4.4.5 Regional Field Campaigns to Connect to Global Impacts ..................................................23 • 4.5 Ice-sheet Dynamics and Sea-level Rise ....................................................................................24 • 4.6 Ensuring the Observational Record for Climate.........................................................................26

12. Key climate change issues:Essential Climate Variables required (identified by IPCC 4th Assess-ment Lead Authors, GCOS-WCRP-IGBP Workshop, Sydney, Australia, October 2007

13. Sydney review and priorities • Comments firmly endorsed GCOS Essential Climate Variables as a priority list. • Recommended formally adding soil moisture • Implied more detail is needed for some ECV’s e.g. Ice sheets, cloud properties • The priority science area’s involve most if not all ECV’s

14. Conclusions • GCOS thanks CEOS members for their vigorous engagement of the GCOS Implementation plan: “The Climate Observations of the GEOSS Climate SBA” • GCOS would welcome agency staff being supported to participate in the preparation and the review of the Progress report and Implementation Plan update.