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PSC Climate & Extreme Events: Shared Lessons – Day 1

PSC Climate & Extreme Events: Shared Lessons – Day 1. March 19, 2003 20 th Pacific Science Congress Bangkok, Thailand. Shared Lessons—Day 1.

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PSC Climate & Extreme Events: Shared Lessons – Day 1

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  1. PSC Climate & Extreme Events:Shared Lessons – Day 1 March 19, 2003 20th Pacific Science Congress Bangkok, Thailand

  2. Shared Lessons—Day 1 • Recent experience confirm regional exposure & sensitivity to climate-related events and various pilot projects highlight opportunities for forecast applications (agriculture, food security, drought, flood & fire management, disaster management, tourism, health (?), water and natural resource management, tourism, energy) • Significant costs of extreme events; direct losses, recovery costs and lost income • Central importance of water • Lots of variability • Significant role of tropical cyclones in some places

  3. Shared Lessons—Day 1 • Significant improvements in forecasting capabilities but still limitations/constraints on applications in specific places/sectors • Importance of understanding existing decision-making framework as a starting point: • Traditional sources of information and practices • Appropriate timing (critical periods) • Specific decision points & information needs for product design • Success comes with shared exploration of forecasting tools and potential applications—process, process, process

  4. Shared Lessons—Day 1 • Building trust and credibility – “eyeball-to-eyeball” contact sustained over time • Continuous interaction, dialogue, shared learning & shared responsibilities: • Among partners in climate information system • Local, national, regional, international partners • Providers and users • Among user communities • Dynamic nature of climate and management • Continuous evaluation and revision--FEEDBACK • Public education campaign essential • Special role of National Meteorological (& Hydrological) Services

  5. Shared Lessons—Day 1 • Most affected communities/sectors interested in continuum of timescales (short-term events, medium-range (seasonal/interannual) and long-range climate variability and change) • Multiple hazard context; “comprehensive risk management” where climate is one (albeit important) factor in a multiple-stress context • Science in support of sustainable development • Potential value of models and information technology (communication, product development, analysis, “discussion support” and decision support tools) • Successful engagement of private sector not yet fully realized

  6. Shared Lessons—Day 1 • Need for/benefit of new communications networks and partnerships • Forecasters, research institutions, governments (various levels), information brokers (e.g., extension workers), affected communities/sectors, end users, private sector, funding agencies • Getting to local level a particular challenge but essential • Need for feedback FROM all levels • Engagement of media • Translation/interpretation challenges; need for a shared and consistent vocabulary and production of understandable and usable information • Consistent messages critical; requires collaboration/communication among providers

  7. Shared Lessons—Day 1 • Still some significant limitations in data and scientific understanding, e.g.: • Regional/local details on climate processes, impacts, response options • Spatial resolution • Baseline data, continued observations • Forecast resolution (downscaling) • Different “flavors” of ENSO • Meaning of “normal” (non-event) years • ENSO-monsoon interactions • Consequences of climate change • Future socio-economic changes • Multi-disciplinary insights and integrated perspectives • Value of climate and hazard “early warning, monitoring & assessment systems”—lessons from health

  8. Shared Lessons—Day 1 • Changing roles of government, private sector, academia, research institutions • Importance of Government leadership and collaboration among ministries and across levels (national to local) • Forecasting • Response/action • Integration of climate in sustainable development planning • Mid-level officials a particular opportunity/challenge

  9. Shared Lessons—Day 1 • System analysis an important tool/approach – holistic perspective on the integrated human-climate-environment system • Complex interactions between environment and behavior – both impacts and responses • Growing awareness and attention within governments and within international community • Responding to today’s variability • Adaptation to long-term change • Links to sustainable development & Millenium goals

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