Climate Change Adaptation and Trade Jon Barnett, School of Geography, Melbourne University

1. Climate Change Adaptation and TradeJon Barnett, School of Geography, Melbourne University

2. Overview • Climate change in the South Pacific • Vulnerability • Adaptation • The benefits of trade • Aid for Trade for Adaptation

3. Climate Change in the South Pacific Source: Fuss et al 2014;CDIAC; Global Carbon Budget 2014

4. Climate Change in the South Pacific Source: CDIAC; Le Quéré et al 2014; Global Carbon Budget 2014

5. Climate Change in the South Pacific Key effects of climate change: • air temperature increase by ~ 2oC above pre-industrial levels by 2050 • sea-surface temperature increases • rainfall more intense and less frequent, exacerbating existing patterns of flooding and drying • increases in sea levels (18 - 82 cms by 2100) • changes in regional climate systems such ENSO • more extreme extreme events

6. Vulnerability • Vulnerability is the potential for loss • In the Pacific Islands livelihoods are generally very dependent on access to ecosystem goods and services • for food, for income, for work (e.g. in tourism, fisheries, and agriculture) • livelihoods have generally been sustainable under past climates • but climate change may surpass the capacities of existing institutions and practices to sustain livelihoods in the future

7. Adaptation • Adaptation means actions that are taken to reduce vulnerability • offsetting natural capital with increased human, physical and financial capital gives people opportunities to adapt their livelihoods • the development of economic institutions is a key to reducing vulnerability in the Pacific islands

8. The benefits of trade Trade can reduce dependence on climate sensitive natural resources in several ways • it can increase employment • it can extend livelihood diversification to more people • it can boost savings that help insure against losses • it can boost investment at many scales • it can increase competition in domestic markets to reduce costs (of food, medicines, WASH related technologies..) • trade facilitates exchange of ideas and technologies • trade helps facilitate labour mobility

9. The benefits of trade Increased trade is more likely to reduce vulnerability when: • the benefits help resource dependent populations to diversify livelihoods (extension of markets to geographically and/or economically and/or socially marginal populations) • it helps to diversify economies, through adding value, new products, and development of secondary and tertiary sector activities (rather than increasing specialising and dependence on primary production)

10. Aid for Trade for Adaptation • Transport infrastructure could be a priority for investment: to reduce the financial and transaction costs of movement of goods and services within countries, and between countries • (compare the effects of transport infrastructure on cyclone response and recovery in Fiji with drought response and recovery in PNG) • The development of insurance products is also critical for climate resilient trade: to spread the risk of loss of production, to overcome risk related barriers to investment, and minimise damage to infrastructure • may require innovative public/private models and innovative products