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Climate Change: Impact on Agriculture and Food Security in an Uncertain Future

Climate Change: Impact on Agriculture and Food Security in an Uncertain Future. Alex De Pinto Research Fellow Environment and Production Technology Division International Food Policy Research Institute 2010 CAADP Africa Forum , October 2010. Food Security Challenges are Unprecedented.

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Climate Change: Impact on Agriculture and Food Security in an Uncertain Future

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  1. Climate Change: Impact on Agriculture and Food Security in an Uncertain Future Alex De Pinto Research Fellow Environment and Production Technology Division International Food Policy Research Institute 2010 CAADP Africa Forum, October 2010

  2. Food Security Challenges are Unprecedented • Population growth • 50 percent more people by 2050 • Almost all in developing countries • Income growth in developing countries • More demand for high valued food (meat, fruits, vegetables) • Climate change – exacerbates existing threats, generates new ones Page 2

  3. Understanding Climate Change AND FUTURE SCENARIO BUILDING Page 3

  4. Rising average temperatures historically Source: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/ Page 4

  5. IPCC Special report on Emissions Scenarios:Population and GDP Growth Assumptions • A1 The A1 scenarios are of a more integrated world. Characterized by: Rapid economic growth. A global population that reaches 9 billion in 2050 and then gradually declines. The quick spread of new and efficient technologies. A convergent world - income and way of life converge between regions. Extensive social and cultural interactions worldwide. • A2 The A2 scenarios are of a more divided world. A world of independently operating, self-reliant nations. Continuously increasing population. Regionally oriented economic development. Slower and more fragmented technological changes and improvements to per capita income. • B1 The B1 scenarios are of a world more integrated, and more ecologically friendly. Rapid economic growth as in A1, but with rapid changes towards a service and information economy. Population rising to 9 billion in 2050 and then declining as in A1. Reductions in material intensity and the introduction of clean and resource efficient technologies. An emphasis on global solutions to economic, social and environmental stability. • B2 The B2 scenarios are of a world more divided, but more ecologically friendly. The B2 scenarios are characterized by: Continuously increasing population, but at a slower rate than in A2. Emphasis on local rather than global solutions to economic, social and environmental stability. Intermediate levels of economic development. Less rapid and more fragmented technological change than in A1 and B1. . Page 5

  6. Current CO2 emissions are higher than most scenarios Source: (Manning et al., 2010) Page 6

  7. The Role of General Circulation Models (GCMs) • GCMs are mathematical models of the general circulation of a planetary atmosphere • Applied for weather forecasting, understanding the climate, and projecting climate change Page 7

  8. Temperature could increase much more Source: Figure 10.4 in Meehl, et al. (2007) Page 8

  9. Change in average annual precipitation, 2000-2050, CSIRO GCM, A1B (mm) Page 9

  10. Change in average annual precipitation, 2000-2050, MIROC GCM, A1B (mm) Page 10

  11. CNRM A2 CSIRO A2 ECHAM5 A2 MIROC3.2 A2 Page 11

  12. How Climate Change Affects Agriculture • Lower yields for crops and livestock from • Higher temperatures • Changes in precipitation patterns • Extreme events • Sea level rise • Climate change will bring location-specific changes in precipitation, temperature and variability • There will be winners and losers! Page 12

  13. Yield Effects, Irrigated Rice, CSIRO A1B (% change 2000 climate to 2050 climate) Page 13

  14. Yield Effects, Irrigated Rice, MIROC A1B (% change 2000 climate to 2050 climate)

  15. Yield Effects, Rainfed Maize, CSIRO A1B (% change 2000 climate to 2050 climate)

  16. Yield Effects, Rainfed Maize, MIROC A1B (% change 2000 climate to 2050 climate) Page 16

  17. Lost agricultural area from sea level rise 30 percent of Vietnam rice growing area

  18. Climate change reduces average yields of current varieties (percent change) Sub-Saharan Africa badly affected Page 18

  19. Characterizing Plausible futures Overall (Economic and Demographic) Scenarios under Varying Climate Futures Page 19

  20. Overall Scenarios:Population and GDP Growth Assumptions • Baseline – Medium GDP and medium population growth • Optimistic – High GDP and low population growth • Pessimistic – Low GDP and high population growth Page 20

  21. Global and Regional GDP per capita growth scenarios Global growth rate assumptions, annual average 2010-2050 (%) African income per capita growth rate assumptions, annual average 2010-2050 (%) Page 21

  22. Climate Scenarios • Climate scientists “All scenarios have equal probability.” • Our modeling approach • For each overall scenario, use 2 GCMs and two SRES scenarios, chosen for wide range of global average precipitation outcomes • GCMs – MIROC (Japanese) and CSIRO (Australian) • SRES scenarios – A1B and B1 • Data from 4th IPCC assessment Page 22

  23. IMPACTS: FOOD SUPPLY AND DEMAND, TRADE, FOOD SECURITY Biophysical effects from crop and hydrology models andeconomic effects from global partial equilibrium agriculture model

  24. Global Change Model Components • GCM climate scenarios • Assumptions of Pop. And GDP growth • DSSAT crop modeling system • Biophysical crop response to temp and precipitation at 5 arc minute resolution (10 km pixels at equator) • IFPRI Spatial Allocation Model - SPAM • Spatial distribution of crops based on crop calendars, soil characteristics, climate of 20 most important crops • IMPACT • Global food supply demand trade model. Results to 2050 with global hydrology and crop model results

  25. Climate Change Makes Food Price Increases Greater Greater price increases with climate change 2050 MIROC NoCF Prices increase without climate change Page 25

  26. Mean Price Increases, Overall Scenarios (2000$/mt) Mean baseline price increase – 57% Preliminary results Page 26

  27. Mean Price Increases, Overall Scenarios (2000$/mt) Mean baseline price increase – 106% Preliminary results Page 27

  28. Mean Price Increases 2010-2050, Overall Scenarios (2000$/mt) Mean baseline price increase – 67% Preliminary results Page 28

  29. Developed Country, Change in Net Exports of Cereals, 2000-2050 (million mt) With perfect mitigation, DC net cereal exports grow. Preliminary results With climate change, DC net cereal exports grow less or decline. Page 29

  30. Comparing the Effects of Climate Change to Economic Development Optimistic scenario Pessimistic scenario Developed countries Perfect mitigation All developing countries Low income developing countries Preliminary results (Ave. Kcals/day) (Ave. Kcals/day) Page 30

  31. CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION COSTS

  32. Our Definition of Agricultural Adaptation • Agricultural investments that reduce child malnutrition with climate change to the level with no climate change • What types of investments are considered? • Public sector agricultural research • Irrigation expansion and efficiency improvements • Rural roads Page 32

  33. Adaptation Costs are over $7 billion per Year • Required additional annual expenditure in developing countries • “Wetter” NCAR scenario = US$7.1 billion • “Drier” CSIRO scenario = US$7.3 billion • Research - $1.3 billion • Irrigation - $3.0 billion • Rural roads - $3.0 billion Page 33

  34. Regional Results • Sub-Saharan Africa - $3 billion (40% of the total), mainly for rural roads • South Asia - US$1.5 billion, research and irrigation efficiency • Latin America and Caribbean - US$1.2 billion per year, research • East Asia and the Pacific - $1 billion per year, research and irrigation efficiency Page 34

  35. Adaptation Strategies • Good development policies and programs are good adaptation practices • Revitalize national research and extension systems • Invest in • Rural roads • Irrigation area and efficiency • Global data collection and information sharing Page 35

  36. Agriculture can play a role in mitigating climate change • Modifying and introducing agricultural practices so that: • Sequester CO2 from atmosphere and store it soils • Reduce GHG emissions • Receive payments for this environmental service

  37. Conclusions • Food security challenges from income and population growth are serious. • Climate change worsens the food security challenge regardless of realized climate • Strong economic growth is critical for food security and resilience to climate change • International trade flows help compensate for differing productivity effects of climate change • It is critical to start now to address the challenges! Page 37

  38. www.ifpri.org Thank you/Merci beaucoup

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