Climate change and Food Security

1. Climate change and Food Security Professor John Beddington Chief Scientific Adviser to HM Government CABI Global Summit – food security in a climate of change 20 October 2009, London Introductions etc.Introductions etc.

3. World food production must rise by 50 percent by 2030 to meet increasing demand, U.N. chief Ban Ki-moon - at a UN world food summit in June 2008 However, these figures above shows 32.41% increase by 2030 and a 40.50% increase by 2050, compared to 2000 figures. However, these figures do not include (other foods – mainly fruits and vegetables with low calorie density). Meat consumption is inclusive of fish (although not entirely clear from the FAO report and I suspect fish may be underestimated) This slide has been calculated as follows: Using - Source: Table 2.7 of UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), World Agriculture: Towards 2030/2050 and the population figures from the UN Medium Population Scenario (Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision (medium scenario) for population figures. I simply multiplied the figures from the FAO report (given as kg/person per year) by the corresponding UN Medium Population Scenario figures for that year to get the total amount of food which I then converted to million tonnes. Note that I did not include "Other food", which is only given in calorific terms in the table, and constitutes less than 10% of calories. Fruits and green vegetables would be included under that category. Also I included China and Brazil in Developing countries (FAO report gives figures with and without China and brazil) http://www.fao.org/es/ESD/AT2050web.pdf http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/WPP2004/wpp2004.htm World food production must rise by 50 percent by 2030 to meet increasing demand, U.N. chief Ban Ki-moon - at a UN world food summit in June 2008 However, these figures above shows 32.41% increase by 2030 and a 40.50% increase by 2050, compared to 2000 figures. However, these figures do not include (other foods – mainly fruits and vegetables with low calorie density). Meat consumption is inclusive of fish (although not entirely clear from the FAO report and I suspect fish may be underestimated) This slide has been calculated as follows: Using - Source: Table 2.7 of UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), World Agriculture: Towards 2030/2050 and the population figures from the UN Medium Population Scenario (Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision (medium scenario) for population figures. I simply multiplied the figures from the FAO report (given as kg/person per year) by the corresponding UN Medium Population Scenario figures for that year to get the total amount of food which I then converted to million tonnes. Note that I did not include "Other food", which is only given in calorific terms in the table, and constitutes less than 10% of calories. Fruits and green vegetables would be included under that category. Also I included China and Brazil in Developing countries (FAO report gives figures with and without China and brazil) http://www.fao.org/es/ESD/AT2050web.pdf http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/WPP2004/wpp2004.htm

4. Fresh water usage Graphs adapted from Standard Chartered Bank - Water - the real liquidity crisis – March 2009. Sourced from Igor A. Shiklomanov, State Hydrological Institute (SHI, St. Petersburg) and United Nations Educational,Scientific and Cultural Organisation (UNESCO, Paris), 1999. 1 in 3 people are already facing water shortages Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management in Agriculture 2007 Fresh water availability for each person, globally, is set to continue to decline especially as populations grow and people get richer. The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) is the voice for the environment in the United Nations system. 1 in 3 people are already facing water shortages (Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management in Agriculture 2007) Around 1.2 billion people, or almost one-fifth of the world's population, live in areas of physical scarcity, while another 1.6 billion people, or almost one quarter of the world's population, face economic water shortage (where countries lack the necessary infrastructure to take water from rivers and aquifers); nearly all of which are in the developing countries. According to the UN World Water Assessment Programme, by 2050, 7 billion people in 60 countries may have to cope with water scarcity. At this year's World Economic Forum, UN secretary-general Ban Ki-moon recommended that water scarcity should be at the top of the international agenda. "As the global economy grows, so will its thirst," he said, warning of a future marred by conflicts over water. Graphs adapted from Standard Chartered Bank - Water - the real liquidity crisis – March 2009. Sourced from Igor A. Shiklomanov, State Hydrological Institute (SHI, St. Petersburg) and United Nations Educational,Scientific and Cultural Organisation (UNESCO, Paris), 1999. 1 in 3 people are already facing water shortages Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management in Agriculture 2007 Fresh water availability for each person, globally, is set to continue to decline especially as populations grow and people get richer. The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) is the voice for the environment in the United Nations system. 1 in 3 people are already facing water shortages (Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management in Agriculture 2007) Around 1.2 billion people, or almost one-fifth of the world's population, live in areas of physical scarcity, while another 1.6 billion people, or almost one quarter of the world's population, face economic water shortage (where countries lack the necessary infrastructure to take water from rivers and aquifers); nearly all of which are in the developing countries. According to the UN World Water Assessment Programme, by 2050, 7 billion people in 60 countries may have to cope with water scarcity. At this year's World Economic Forum, UN secretary-general Ban Ki-moon recommended that water scarcity should be at the top of the international agenda. "As the global economy grows, so will its thirst," he said, warning of a future marred by conflicts over water.

5. We must also consider the impact of water availability The grey band represents the difference between the amount of water extracted and that actually consumed. Water may be extracted, used, recycled (or returned to rivers or aquifers) and reused several times over. Consumption is final use of water, after which it can no longer be reused. That extractions have increased at a much faster rate is an indication of how much more intensively we can now exploit water. Only a fraction of water extracted is lost through evaporation. Data Source: Igor A. Shiklomanov, State Hydrological Institute (SHI, St. Petersburg) and United Nations Educational,Scientific and Cultural Organisation (UNESCO, Paris), 1999. Graphics source - VITAL WATER GRAPHICS, An Overview of the State of the World’s Fresh and Marine Waters - 2nd Edition – 2008. The grey band represents the difference between the amount of water extracted and that actually consumed. Water may be extracted, used, recycled (or returned to rivers or aquifers) and reused several times over. Consumption is final use of water, after which it can no longer be reused. That extractions have increased at a much faster rate is an indication of how much more intensively we can now exploit water. Only a fraction of water extracted is lost through evaporation. Data Source: Igor A. Shiklomanov, State Hydrological Institute (SHI, St. Petersburg) and United Nations Educational,Scientific and Cultural Organisation (UNESCO, Paris), 1999. Graphics source - VITAL WATER GRAPHICS, An Overview of the State of the World’s Fresh and Marine Waters - 2nd Edition – 2008.

6. Increasing global temperatures Take audience through the graphs 18 March - was at a Arctic ice workshop, where Prof Overland, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, presented – stark warning (based on assumptions/models) that the Arctic may well be near-ice free by 2030….in SUMMER! Old Message: The IPCC AR4 concluded that “under several different scenarios (SRES A1B, A2 and B1), large parts of the Arctic Ocean are expected to no longer have year-round ice cover by the end of the 21st century”. New Message/Latest Science: The latest projections by the Met Office Hadley Centre indicate that the Arctic may be largely free of sea ice in summer by the 2060s. The Met Office Hadley Centre model results are credible, as they are consistent with the observed long term trend in Arctic sea ice extent. [Note that some models project an even earlier ice-free date.] Global challenge too- Sea Ice: Last winter, thickness of sea ice in parts of the Arctic fell by nearly half a metre (19 per cent) compared with average thickness of the previous 5 winters. After summer 2007’s record low extent, the thickness of the ice also nose-dived. Not only that but the sea ice is not thinning but it is also receding. This summer, sea ice extent reached the second lowest level since records began, even though the Arctic had a relatively cool summer. During the Summer of 2007 the Artic’s North-West passage became ice free and open to shipping for the first time in 30 years (All this from NERC) Is an enormous, global, problem and the issues affected are all inter-related. Take audience through the graphs 18 March - was at a Arctic ice workshop, where Prof Overland, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, presented – stark warning (based on assumptions/models) that the Arctic may well be near-ice free by 2030….in SUMMER! Old Message: The IPCC AR4 concluded that “under several different scenarios (SRES A1B, A2 and B1), large parts of the Arctic Ocean are expected to no longer have year-round ice cover by the end of the 21st century”. New Message/Latest Science: The latest projections by the Met Office Hadley Centre indicate that the Arctic may be largely free of sea ice in summer by the 2060s. The Met Office Hadley Centre model results are credible, as they are consistent with the observed long term trend in Arctic sea ice extent. [Note that some models project an even earlier ice-free date.] Global challenge too- Sea Ice: Last winter, thickness of sea ice in parts of the Arctic fell by nearly half a metre (19 per cent) compared with average thickness of the previous 5 winters. After summer 2007’s record low extent, the thickness of the ice also nose-dived. Not only that but the sea ice is not thinning but it is also receding. This summer, sea ice extent reached the second lowest level since records began, even though the Arctic had a relatively cool summer. During the Summer of 2007 the Artic’s North-West passage became ice free and open to shipping for the first time in 30 years (All this from NERC) Is an enormous, global, problem and the issues affected are all inter-related.

8. The latest science: situation may be worse than predicted 18 March - was at a Arctic ice workshop, where Prof Overland, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, presented – stark warning (based on assumptions/models) that the Arctic may well be near-ice free by 2030…. Old Message: The IPCC AR4 concluded that “under several different scenarios (SRES A1B, A2 and B1), large parts of the Arctic Ocean are expected to no longer have year-round ice cover by the end of the 21st century”. New Message/Latest Science: The latest projections by the Met Office Hadley Centre indicate that the Arctic may be largely free of sea ice in summer by the 2060s. The Met Office Hadley Centre model results are credible, as they are consistent with the observed long term trend in Arctic sea ice extent. [Note that some models project an even earlier ice-free date.] Global challenge too- Sea Ice: Last winter, thickness of sea ice in parts of the Arctic fell by nearly half a metre (19 per cent) compared with average thickness of the previous 5 winters. After summer 2007’s record low extent, the thickness of the ice also nose-dived. Not only that but the sea ice is not thinning but it is also receding. This summer, sea ice extent reached the second lowest level since records began, even though the Arctic had a relatively cool summer. During the Summer of 2007 the Artic’s North-West passage became ice free and open to shipping for the first time in 30 years (All this from NERC)18 March - was at a Arctic ice workshop, where Prof Overland, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, presented – stark warning (based on assumptions/models) that the Arctic may well be near-ice free by 2030…. Old Message: The IPCC AR4 concluded that “under several different scenarios (SRES A1B, A2 and B1), large parts of the Arctic Ocean are expected to no longer have year-round ice cover by the end of the 21st century”. New Message/Latest Science: The latest projections by the Met Office Hadley Centre indicate that the Arctic may be largely free of sea ice in summer by the 2060s. The Met Office Hadley Centre model results are credible, as they are consistent with the observed long term trend in Arctic sea ice extent. [Note that some models project an even earlier ice-free date.] Global challenge too- Sea Ice: Last winter, thickness of sea ice in parts of the Arctic fell by nearly half a metre (19 per cent) compared with average thickness of the previous 5 winters. After summer 2007’s record low extent, the thickness of the ice also nose-dived. Not only that but the sea ice is not thinning but it is also receding. This summer, sea ice extent reached the second lowest level since records began, even though the Arctic had a relatively cool summer. During the Summer of 2007 the Artic’s North-West passage became ice free and open to shipping for the first time in 30 years (All this from NERC)

9. Greenland Ice Sheet Ice sheet data is inferred from satellite observations of the surface temperature. On the mass is estimated from satellite measurement of changes in the gravitational field. Grey area shows 90% confidence level of the fitted straight line.Ice sheet data is inferred from satellite observations of the surface temperature. On the mass is estimated from satellite measurement of changes in the gravitational field. Grey area shows 90% confidence level of the fitted straight line.

10. Ocean Acidification Refs Sabine et al. 2004 - in Science Caldeira & Wickett 2003 - NatureRefs Sabine et al. 2004 - in Science Caldeira & Wickett 2003 - Nature

11. Science crucial in the past Science can and should provide solutions now and in the future Climate Change Improved predictions of climate change impacts Better short term predictions of flash floods, cyclones, tidal waves Better information/evidence on defences and role of rare habitats Energy security Low carbon energy Worldwide action GHG emissions, clean technologies, alternative food systems Still a great many areas for research where uncertainties need to be reduced (this is where the audience comes in)Science crucial in the past Science can and should provide solutions now and in the future Climate Change Improved predictions of climate change impacts Better short term predictions of flash floods, cyclones, tidal waves Better information/evidence on defences and role of rare habitats Energy security Low carbon energy Worldwide action GHG emissions, clean technologies, alternative food systems Still a great many areas for research where uncertainties need to be reduced (this is where the audience comes in)

12. Climate change effects on biodiversity Key date is 2030 – still time to act. As temperature rises, and consequences are hard to retreat from, the worse the affects. Time to act is now.Key date is 2030 – still time to act. As temperature rises, and consequences are hard to retreat from, the worse the affects. Time to act is now.

13. Climate change and biodiversity This diagram shows the current and trends of different drivers on major global biomass – the impacts are low to moderate but expected top increase in next 50 years, and all this is tightly linked to keeping increase in temperature rise below 2 degrees C.This diagram shows the current and trends of different drivers on major global biomass – the impacts are low to moderate but expected top increase in next 50 years, and all this is tightly linked to keeping increase in temperature rise below 2 degrees C.

14. The genetic material within species is the basis of all biodiversity. Ecosystem services depend upon biodiversity in ways that are highly variable (but also poorly understood). Diversity, composition, interactions, distribution and biomass may all be important, depending on the ecosystem function or service involved. (May may want to highlight) - Tropical rainforests are the Earth’s oldest living ecosystems and have existed for more than 70 million years. Although they cover only a small percentage of the Earth’s service they support over half the 30 million plant and animal species on the planet. Yet rainforests are being destroyed at an alarming rate, as much as 30 million hectares a year – an area the size of Poland. All the primary rainforest in India, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka has already been destroyed. The rate of destruction is equivalent to two football pitches a second, which adds up to 86,000 hectares a day! The Amazon basin, the largest area of rainforest on Earth, is losing three million hectares a year. At the current rate of loss all tropical rainforest systems will be destroyed by the year 2030. (WWF Focus on Rainforests – John Spooner). The genetic material within species is the basis of all biodiversity. Ecosystem services depend upon biodiversity in ways that are highly variable (but also poorly understood). Diversity, composition, interactions, distribution and biomass may all be important, depending on the ecosystem function or service involved. (May may want to highlight) - Tropical rainforests are the Earth’s oldest living ecosystems and have existed for more than 70 million years. Although they cover only a small percentage of the Earth’s service they support over half the 30 million plant and animal species on the planet. Yet rainforests are being destroyed at an alarming rate, as much as 30 million hectares a year – an area the size of Poland. All the primary rainforest in India, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka has already been destroyed. The rate of destruction is equivalent to two football pitches a second, which adds up to 86,000 hectares a day! The Amazon basin, the largest area of rainforest on Earth, is losing three million hectares a year. At the current rate of loss all tropical rainforest systems will be destroyed by the year 2030. (WWF Focus on Rainforests – John Spooner).

15. Action in the UKThe UK Foresight Programme