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New Jersey Regional Employment Projections: 2004-2014

New Jersey Regional Employment Projections: 2004-2014. Industrial Employment Collected via combination of Current Employment Statistics (CES) and Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) Includes all non-agricultural payroll employment. Occupational Employment

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New Jersey Regional Employment Projections: 2004-2014

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  1. New Jersey Regional Employment Projections: 2004-2014

  2. Industrial Employment Collected via combination of Current Employment Statistics (CES) and Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) Includes all non-agricultural payroll employment Occupational Employment Collected via the Occupational Employment Statistics survey (OES), a sample of employers used to develop staffing patterns across all industries Includes all non-agricultural payroll employment PLUS the self-employed and unpaid family workers There are two ways to analyze employment data, each having significant collection methods and importance

  3. STATE AND NATIONAL INDUSTRY REVIEW

  4. Employment in New Jersey is projected to grow at a steady 1.0% annual rate, but still lag that of the nation Employment Change ( % ) Total Nonfarm

  5. Goods-Producing industries will continue to decline in New Jersey while remaining relatively flat for the nation Employment Change ( % ) Total Nonfarm Goods-Producing

  6. Service-Providing industries will again account for all growth in both the state and the nation Employment Change ( % ) Total Nonfarm Goods-Producing Services-Providing

  7. By 2014, nearly nine out of every ten jobs in NJ will be found within a Service-Providing industry Employment Total Nonfarm Goods-Producing Services-Providing

  8. For the nation, 85% of total employment will be found within Service-Providing industries Employment Total Nonfarm Goods-Producing Services-Providing

  9. STATEWIDE MAJOR INDUSTRY SECTOR REVIEW

  10. Modest growth in Construction will offset deep losses in Manufacturing among Goods-Producing industries Employment Change Goods-Producing Manufacturing Construction

  11. Widespread losses in manufacturing are led by these industries: Computer & Electronic Mfg Chemical Mfg Machinery Mfg Employment Decline Fabricated Metal Mfg Paper Mfg Total Manufacturing Selected Components

  12. Although the Manufacturing industry is projected to continue its decline, the trend is slowing 726,800 456,000 338,200 278,300 Manufacturing Employment -4.6% Per year -2.9% Per year -1.9% Per year

  13. Service-providingindustries will approach 4 million jobs by 2014 and continue to drive the labor market The only service-providing industry projected to lose jobs through 2014 is the Information sector, projected to lose 6,400 jobs, a decline of -0.7% annually

  14. Employment growth within Service-Providing industries will be dominated by these five sectors… Employment Change * Healthcare and Professional & Business Services will each add more than 100,000 jobs from 2004 to 2014. Selected Components Services-Providing

  15. STATEWIDE OCCUPATIONAL HIGHLIGHTS

  16. 9.5% Employment Growth: 2004-2014 • 149,540 Average Annual Job Openings, 2004-2014 • More than Two-thirds of these Job Openings will be due to “Replacement” demand

  17. PROJECTED PERCENTAGE GROWTH RATE BY MAJOR OCCUPATIONAL CATEGORY EMPLOYMENT SHARE IN 2014 BY MAJOR OCCUPATIONAL GROUP Trans./Mat. Moving Production Mgmt., Bus., Fin. Service Professional Install/Repair Mgmt., Bus., Fin. Construction Construction Install/Repair Trans./Mat. Moving Sales Office/Admin Support Production Office/Admin Support Sales Service

  18. Occupations with higher educational and training requirements are projected to grow twice as fast as those with lower requirements First Professional Degree Doctoral Degree Master’s Degree Work exp. + Bachelor’s or higher Bachelor’s Degree Associate’s Degree Postsecondary Voc. Training Work exp. in a related Occ. Long-Term OTJ Training Moderate-Term OTJ Training Short-Term OTJ Training Percent Growth, 2004-2014 Percent Growth, 2004-2014

  19. NEW JERSEY REGIONAL AND COUNTY DATA

  20. Northern Region BERGEN ESSEX HUDSON MORRIS PASSAIC UNION SUSSEX WARREN - Generally, these counties have large employment but grow at a slower rate - Combined, this region accounts for over 47% of all NJ employment - Over 50% of State’s employment in Manufacturing located in Northern region - Projected to have roughly 70,000 average annual job openings, more than double any other region

  21. Bergen County Highest employment in the State, and only county to eclipse 500,000 jobs by 2014 Healthcare and Social Assistance industry is and will ~ Giants Stadium remain the largest sector, adding more than 19,000 jobs Large (over 14% of State), but slow-growing Retail and Wholesale Trade sectors ~ Continental Airlines Arena

  22. BERGEN COUNTY VS. STATEPercent Growth by Occupational Category • Ranks #1 among NJ counties in most projected employment growth and average annual job openings • Professional and Service occupations make up over 70% of employment growth • Second to only Middlesex in employment in Production occupations, with 31,600 in 2004 Total Mgmt., Bus., & Fin. Occs. Professional Occs. Service Occs. Sales Occs. Office/ Admin. Occs. Construction Occs. Install./Repair Occs. Production Occs. Transportation Occs. Percent Growth, 2004-2014

  23. Hudson County Largest employment within Finance and Insurance industry sector among NJ counties…nearly 15% of all employment in Hudson County Trade, Transportation and Utilities account for one in every four jobs in Hudson Sharpest projected decline in Manufacturing among NJ counties…projected to lose 30.7% of Manufacturing jobs by 2014, a drop of 4,150 jobs

  24. HUDSON COUNTY VS. STATEPercent Growth by Occupational Category • Nearly one in every four jobs found within Office and Administrative Support group, the highest concentration in the State • Only Management, Business, and Financial and Professional occupations projected to outpace growth of State Total Mgmt., Bus., & Fin. Occs. Professional Occs. Service Occs. Sales Occs. Office/ Admin. Occs. Construction Occs. Install./Repair Occs. Production Occs. Transportation Occs. Percent Growth, 2004-2014

  25. Morris County Fastest projected annual growth rate in the Northern region at 1.2%, which ranks 4th in the State Also ranks 4th in the State in total employment, with 298,350 in 2004 Well-rounded employment base features eight major industries with employment of 20,000 or more

  26. MORRIS COUNTY VS. STATEPercent Growth by Occupational Category • All Major Occupational groups, except Professional, will grow faster than those of the State • Even still, projected growth in higher paying Management, Business, and Financial, and Professional occupations combined will add almost 17,000 jobs, nearly 44% of all growth Total Mgmt., Bus., & Fin. Occs. Professional Occs. Service Occs. Sales Occs. Office/ Admin. Occs. Construction Occs. Install./Repair Occs. Production Occs. Transportation Occs. Percent Growth, 2004-2014

  27. Central Region HUNTERDON MERCER MIDDLESEX SOMERSET - Second largest region is projected to near 1,000,000 in employment by 2014, a growth rate of 10.2% - In 2004, more than one in five jobs (21.7%) found in Central region - Three of the four counties in this region will outpace the State’s growth of 10.1% - Employment in Professional and Business Services will increase by 16.9% while adding 27,000 new jobs

  28. Mercer County Fastest growing county in Central region due to strong growth in Healthcare, Construction, and Administrative Support services ~ New Jersey State House Second largest county in Central region, eighth largest in State, with employment of 226,750 in 2004 One in every four jobs found in Government sector ~ “Trenton Makes” Bridge

  29. MERCER COUNTY VS. STATEPercent Growth by Occupational Category • Higher paying Management, Business, and Financial, and Professional occupations will account for more than half of 27,000 new jobs • Construction occupations will increase by 16.7%, highest among NJ counties • By 2014, Registered Nurses will add 1,400 jobs to become the occupation with the largest employment in Mercer Total Mgmt., Bus., & Fin. Occs. Professional Occs. Service Occs. Sales Occs. Office/ Admin. Occs. Construction Occs. Install./Repair Occs. Production Occs. Transportation Occs. Percent Growth, 2004-2014

  30. Middlesex County With employment of 414,450 in 2004, Middlesex is the largest county in the Central region, and second largest in the State Among Central region counties, Middlesex will experience the slowest growth at 8.6%, but still add the most jobs with 35,600 Largest Manufacturing sector among NJ counties with employment of 46,300 in 2004 ~ Rutgers Stadium, Piscataway NJ

  31. MIDDLESEX COUNTY VS. STATEPercent Growth by Occupational Category • Like Mercer, more than half of job growth to occur within higher paying Management, Business, and Financial, and Professional occupational groups • Most employment in Transportation and Material Moving occupations among NJ counties with 52,400 in 2004 Total Mgmt., Bus., & Fin. Occs. Professional Occs. Service Occs. Sales Occs. Office/ Admin. Occs. Construction Occs. Install./Repair Occs. Production Occs. Transportation Occs. Percent Growth, 2004-2014

  32. Coastal Region MONMOUTH OCEAN ATLANTIC CAPE MAY - Fastest growing region will add nearly 70,000 by 2014, an increase of 11.2% - 35.1% of State’s employment within Accommodation and Food Services industry in these four counties…nearly 16.0% of region’s total employment - Another 14.6% of region’s total employment in Retail Trade industry…compared to 11.7% statewide

  33. Monmouth County Monmouth is projected to grow by 9.4% and will add 25,000 jobs by 2014 to remain the largest county in the Coastal region ~ Southside Johnny & “The Boss” at the Stone Pony High concentration of employment in Retail Trade industry, nearly 15.0% in 2004 Second largest county in Construction employment with 15,350 in 2004, behind only Bergen

  34. MONMOUTH COUNTY VS. STATEPercent Growth by Occupational Category • Professional occupations will grow by 11.1%, second slowest among NJ counties • Service occupations will add 9,300 new jobs, or growth of 15.1% • Installation, Maintenance and Repair occupations will add 1,250 jobs, second most among NJ counties Total Mgmt., Bus., & Fin. Occs. Professional Occs. Service Occs. Sales Occs. Office/ Admin. Occs. Construction Occs. Install./Repair Occs. Production Occs. Transportation Occs. Percent Growth, 2004-2014

  35. Ocean County With total growth of 15.1%, Ocean is projected to be the fastest growing county in the Coastal region and second fastest in the State Healthcare and Social Assistance is and will remain the county’s largest industry, accounting for one in every five jobs by 2014 Also, Healthcare industry will add 8,850 jobs, an annual growth rate of 2.8%, and nearly 40% of all growth

  36. OCEAN COUNTY VS. STATEPercent Growth by Occupational Category • All major occupational groups are projected to outpace the growth rates of the State • Service occupations will increase by 23.6%, second most among NJ counties • Transportation and Material Moving occupations will increase by 13.2%, the highest among NJ counties Total Mgmt., Bus., & Fin. Occs. Professional Occs. Service Occs. Sales Occs. Office/ Admin. Occs. Construction Occs. Install./Repair Occs. Production Occs. Transportation Occs. Percent Growth, 2004-2014

  37. Atlantic County Accommodation and Food Services industry (including Casinos) is county’s largest, over 37% of all employment in 2004 ~ Borgata Hotel Casino and Spa Healthcare and Social Assistance sector will add the most new jobs with 4,550 by 2014, an annual rate of 2.6% Very small share of Manufacturing industry, less than 3% of total employment in Atlantic ~ Harrah’s Atlantic City

  38. ATLANTIC COUNTY VS. STATEPercent Growth by Occupational Category • Professional occupations will add 4,650 new jobs, or growth of 19.8%, highest among NJ counties • Service occupations will add another 5,650 jobs despite lowest growth rate among NJ counties (9.6%) • Together, they account for nearly 70% of all growth Total Mgmt., Bus., & Fin. Occs. Professional Occs. Service Occs. Sales Occs. Office/ Admin. Occs. Construction Occs. Install./Repair Occs. Production Occs. Transportation Occs. Percent Growth, 2004-2014

  39. Southern Region BURLINGTON CAMDEN GLOUCESTER CUMBERLAND SALEM - Second fastest growing region is projected to add 66,500 jobs through 2014, an increase of 10.8% - Healthcare and Social Assistance industry alone will add 21,250 new jobs, nearly a third of all growth - Employment share in Manufacturing ranks #1 among NJ’s four regions at 9.7% of total employment

  40. Camden County Largest county in Southern region, with employment of 219,900 in 2004, is projected to add 19,850 by 2014 Government, Healthcare and Social Assistance, and Retail Trade, Camden’s three largest industries, account for 43% of total employment Healthcare and Social Assistance industry will add 7,700 new jobs, nearly double any other industry ~ Campbell’s Field w/ Ben Franklin Bridge

  41. CAMDEN COUNTY VS. STATEPercent Growth by Occupational Category • All major occupational groups, except Production, will grow at a slower rate than the State • More than 70% of all growth through 2014 will occur within Professional and Service occupations • Registered Nurses, the #1 occupation in 2004, will add 1,650 new jobs, by far the most of any occupation Total Mgmt., Bus., & Fin. Occs. Professional Occs. Service Occs. Sales Occs. Office/ Admin. Occs. Construction Occs. Install./Repair Occs. Production Occs. Transportation Occs. Percent Growth, 2004-2014

  42. Gloucester County Fastest growing county in Southern region, and third fastest in the State at 13.7%, will add 14,250 new jobs by 2014 One in every four new jobs will be found in Healthcare and Social Assistance, which will grow by 2.9% annually Retail Trade will remain Gloucester’s largest private sector industry, adding 1,850 new jobs to reach employment of 18,650 by 2014 ~ Rowan University Prof

  43. GLOUCESTER COUNTY VS. STATEPercent Growth by Occupational Category • All major occupational groups will outpace the growth of the State • Office and Administrative Support occupations will grow by 6.9%, highest among NJ counties • Healthcare Practitioner and Healthcare Support occupations together will add 1,900 jobs, an increase of 33.0% Total Mgmt., Bus., & Fin. Occs. Professional Occs. Service Occs. Sales Occs. Office/ Admin. Occs. Construction Occs. Install./Repair Occs. Production Occs. Transportation Occs. Percent Growth, 2004-2014

  44. Key Points • Healthcare and Social Assistance industry will continue to boom…fastest growing industry in 7 of 21 counties • Higher-paying Management, Business, and Financial and Professional occupational groups are projected to account for nearly 45% of total growth • Employment in Manufacturing will continue to decline, but at a much slower rate than the past two decades

  45. Questions or Comments? CALL 609-777-3635 -or- E-MAIL Jason.Timian@dol.state.nj.us Visit our Web site: www.nj.gov/labor/lra

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