17+18. Wicked Problems

1. 17+18. Wicked Problems SLP(E) Course

2. Contents • The problem of Change. • What kind of problem are you facing? • Tame | Wicked | Critical? • Elegant Solutions to Tame & Critical Problems • Addressing Wicked Problems • Why Elegant Solutions don’t resolve Wicked Problems. • Why Clumsy Solutions to Wicked Problems might work.

3. The NHS: 25 Years of Change | Restructuring 1982: Abolition of Area Health Authorities 1982-85: Introduction of general management 1985: Creation of NHS Board at the Dept of Health 1989-93: Establishment of NHS Trusts 1989-95: Creation of GP Fundholding & Commissioning 1989-95: Setting up NHS Management Executive (later NHS Executive) 1990: Replacement of FPCs (Family Practitioner Clinic) by FHSAs Family Health Service Authority 1991-97: Reconfiguration of Health Authorities 1991: Restructuring of NHS Organisation Boards 1994: Reorganization of RHAs (Regional Health Authorities) 1994: Abolition of FHSAs & incorporation into Health Authorities 1995: Reconfiguration of Acute Services & Trusts 1996: Abolition of RHAs, incorporation into NHS Executive 1997: Abolition of GP fundholding, replacement with PCGs (Primary Care Group) 2000: Abolition of NHS Executive, incorporation into the Dept. of Health 2001: Abolition of NHS Executive Regional Offices, move to Regional DHSCs at Dept of Health 2001: Replacement of larger health authorities with SHAs (Strategic Health Authorities) 2001: Replacement of PCGs with PCTs (Primary Care Trusts) 2002: Creation of Foundation NHS Trusts 2002: Creation of Health and Social Care Trusts 2005: Merger of 300 PCTs into 100 larger PCTs 2005: Merger of 28 SHAs into 10 larger SHAs 2006: Reorganization of Dept. of Health to split NHS and DH responsibilities

4. The Problem with Change • 75% of change programmes fail in their own terms: • Fail to realise Benefits. • Improved Efficiencies not obtained. • Challenge of Cultural change • Repositioning of organisation not achieved. • Why?

5. The Problem with Change • Do different kinds of problems require different kinds of change? • Critical Problems: Commander. • Tame Problems: Management. • Wicked Problems: Leadership.

6. What kind of Problem? Wicked Problems

7. Tame Problems • Problems as puzzles: there is a solution. • Can be complicated, but there is uni-linear solution • Problems that Management can (& has previously) solved. • Heart surgery. • Launching another new product. • Relocating. • Management’s role: • engage appropriate process

8. Wicked Problems • No simple solutions because: • Complex rather than complicated | cannot be solved in isolation. • Sit outside single hierarchy & across systems. • Solution creates another problem. • No stopping rule: no definition of success.

9. Wicked Problems • May be intransigent problems that we have to learn to live with. • Symptoms of deep divisions: • Contradictory certitudes • No right or wrong solutions. • Only better or worse developments. • Securing the right answer is not as important as collective consent. • Coping rather than solving.

10. Wicked Problems • Uncertainty & Ambiguity inevitable. • Cannot be removed through correct analysis. • Keat’s Negative Capability. • Problems for Leadership not management. • Require political collaboration not scientific processes. • Role is to ask appropriate question & engage collaboration.

11. Critical Problems • Beyond Tame & Wicked. • Some/all of following issues: • Self evident crises. • General uncertainty: though Commander provides answer. • No time for discussion | dissent. • Coercion legitimate in interest of public good. • Commander takes required action: • Provides answer to the problem.

12. Legitimate Power

13. Legitimate Power

14. Legitimate Power

15. Legitimate Power

16. Differentiating betweenManagement | Leadership | Command • Command: • Just do it | Doesn’t matter what others think. • Management: • Déjà vu | Seen this problem before | Know what process will solve it. • Leadership: • Vu Jade | Never seen this before | Need collective view on what to do about it.

17. Increasing uncertainty about solution to problem LEADERSHIP: Ask Questions WICKED MANAGEMENT: Organize Process TAME COMMAND: Provide Answer CRITICAL Increasing requirement for collaborative compliance/ resolution COERCION/ PHYSICAL Hard power CALCULATIVE/ RATIONAL NORMATIVE/ EMOTIONAL Soft power

18. WHAT KIND OF PROBLEM IS IT? DO YOU KNOW HOW TO SOLVE THIS PROBLEM? YES NO DOES ANYONE KNOW TO SOLVE THIS? IS IT A CRISIS? YES NO NO YES CRITICAL PROBLEM Act as a commander Be decisive Provide answers TAME PROBLEM Act as a manager Use S.O.Ps. WICKED PROBLEM Act as a leader Ask questions & use clumsy solutions

19. Addressing Wicked Problems Wicked Problems

20. Drawing on Anthropology Four primary ways (modes) of organizing FATALISM HIERARCHY High Military GRID: Rules & Roles INDIVIDUALISM EGALITARIANISM Meeting Market Low High GROUP ORIENTATION

21. Drawing on Anthropology Elegant Solutions rely upon a single [internally consistent] mode of understanding and action FATALISM There is nothing we can do HIERARCHY More power, rules & enforcement High GRID: Rules & Roles INDIVIDUALISM More freedom, use rational choice & logic EGALITARIANISM Greater solidarity Low High GROUP ORIENTATION

22. Wicked Problems • So how do you address wicked problems? • First recognise that Elegant Solutions probably won’t work. • Second, consider the pragmatic utility of Clumsy Solutions.

23. Creating a Clumsy Solution Space • Avoid alienating significant constituencies, noting that progress does not: • depend upon consensus – that would be too elegant. • Work out what we all agree on. • Assume no-one has the solution in isolation. • Assume the problem is a system not an individual problem: • not a problem caused by or solved by a single aspect of the system.

24. Creating a Clumsy Solution Space Clumsy Solution Space Individualists Hierarchists Egalitarians

25. Elegant Single-mode solution to Global Warming FATALISM There is nothing we can do | People are Selfish | All doomed HIERARCHY Rules are inadequately enforced | get a disciplinarian in charge | sort out Kyoto style agreement that works High GRID: Rules & Roles INDIVIDUALISM Facilitate individualism | encourage creative competition & innovation. Market forces will resolve the problem EGALITARIANISM Rethink approach to consumption | shift to decentralized & self-sustaining communities Low High GROUP ORIENTATION

26. Clumsy Solution for Wicked Problem of Global Warming Individualists: Technical innovation to address at every level Clumsy Solution Space Hierarchists Stronger Global regulation & carbon emissions control Egalitarians Change in consumption pattern & more sustainability

27. Wicked Problems • Require Bricoleurs, not rational counting machines. • Those who can prosper in a clumsy pragmatic way, not those restricted to elegant single logics. • Those who ‘do it themselves’ | who experiment | learn from mistakes. • Stitch together whatever is at hand. • Our wise leader is essentially pragmatic in means, if not in ends

28. Addressing Wicked ProblemsAdopt role of Bricoleur | stitch together clumsy systems comprised of elements of three elegant modes. Hierarchists: Relationships not structures. Constructive dissent not destructive assent. Negative capability Individualists: Questions not answers Reflection not reaction Empathy not egotism Clumsy Solution Space Egalitarians: Collective IQ not individual genius Positive deviance not negative acquiescence. Community of fate not fatalist community.

29. Individualists Individualists: Questions not answers Reflection not reaction Empathy not egotism

30. Questions not answers • Hurricane Katerina. • President George Bush • Pre-Katerina briefing: asks no questions. • National TV on eve of hurricane. • After the hurricane.

31. Reflection not Reaction • Buncefield Fire.

32. Empathy no Egotism • Bernard Hogan-Howe Chief Constable Merseyside: • Chiefs’ Challenge: get on the beat once a month.

33. Egalitarians Egalitarians: Collective IQ not individual genius. Positive deviance not negative acquiescence. Community of fate not fatalist community.

34. Collective Intelligence not Individual genius • Archie Norman: • 1986-1991: Finance director of Woolworths - doubled market value of Kingfisher. • 1991-1999: Rescued Asda from near bankruptcy and sold it to Wal-Mart for £6.7bn.

35. Collective Intelligence not Individual genius • Archie Norman: • Interviewed 180 people for position of Human Resource Manager. • Also appointed: • Justin King (subsequently CEO Sainsbury). • Richard Baker (subsequently CEO Boots). • Andy Hornby (subsequently CEO HBOS). • Allan Leighton (subsequently Chair Royal Mail).

36. Positive deviance not negative acquiescence • Malnourishment in Vietnam: • Don’t assume that you have the answer. • Identify conventional wisdom. • Identify & analyse positive deviants. • Enable self-adopting behaviours. • Track results & publicise them.

37. Community of Fate not Fatalist Community • Hernan Cortes & Moctezuma’s Aztec empire: • Arrives in ‘Mexico’ 1519 with 400 soldiers, 16 horsemen & few cannon. • Burns his boats to prevent the crew fleeing: • creates a Community of Fate. • Recruits anti-Aztec Indian allies. • Locals believe him to be Quetzalcoatl of Aztec prophesy: • white skinned bearded god returning to take control. • a Fatalist Community ruled by Moctezuma.

38. Community of Fate not Fatalist Community • Panorama: Taking Back the Streets | BBC One | 8.30pm on Mon 3 Mar 08. • Anne Glover | Braunstone in Leicester: • ‘It never ceases to amaze me how a minority can control an area where a majority of people live... all because of the fear factor. If you stick together on an issue they can't intimidate you.’

39. Hierarchists Hierarchists: Relationships not structures. Constructive dissent not destructive assent. Negative capability

40. Relationships not structures • Where does the power lie? • Leader-follower relationship.

41. Relationships not structures

42. Destructive Consent • Richard Greenbury. • ‘The thing about Rick is that he never understood the impact he had on people – people were just too scared to say what they thought. I remember one meeting we had to discuss a new policy and two or three directors got me on one side beforehand and said they were really unhappy about it. Then Rick made his presentation and asked for views. There was total silence until one said, “Chairman we are all 100% behind you on this one.” And that was the end of the meeting’ (Bevan, 2002: 3).

43. Destructive Consent • Sloan’s Dilemma: • ‘Gentlemen, I take it we are all in complete agreement on the decision here?’ • Consensus of nodding heads. • ‘Then I propose we postpone further discussion of this matter until our next meeting to give ourselves time to develop disagreement and perhaps gain some understanding of what the decision is all about.’

44. Negative capability • Stein’s (2004) decision-making in Apollo 13 & at Three Mile Island. • 55 hours into 1970 Apollo 13 mission a loud explosion left astronauts short of food, oxygen, power, water & hope. • Avoiding temptation to jump to conclusions & via slow, careful analysis problems explained, compensated for & Apollo 13 returned safely.

45. Critical Learning Points (1) • What kind of problem are you facing? • Tame: manage the SOPs. • Critical: command the answer. • Wicked: lead the collaborative effort. • Organizations generate default cultures: • Hierarchists assume rules & power are critical. • Egalitarians assume greater solidarity is critical. • Individualists assume greater freedom is critical. • Fatalists have given up.

46. Critical Learning Points (2) • Elegant (single mode) solutions are OK for Tame & Critical Problems but not Wicked Problems. • Wicked Problems require Clumsy Solutions that pragmatically use all 3 elegant modes: • they require bricoleurs.

47. Problems • ‘Some problems are so complex that you have to be highly intelligent & well informed just to be undecided about them’. • Lawrence J Peter.

48. 16+17. Wicked Problems SLP(E) Course