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CAPS Forecast Suite for 2009 HWT (Hazardous Weather Testbed) Spring Experiment

CAPS Forecast Suite for 2009 HWT (Hazardous Weather Testbed) Spring Experiment.

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CAPS Forecast Suite for 2009 HWT (Hazardous Weather Testbed) Spring Experiment

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  1. CAPS Forecast Suite for 2009 HWT (Hazardous Weather Testbed) Spring Experiment • Daily 30-hour-long 18 to 20-member 4-km-resolution ensemble forecasts starting from 00 UTC with multiple models (WRF-ARW, WRF-NMM, ARPS). Covers a near-CONUS domain. Radar data from over 120 WSR-88D radars will be assimilated. Each model will have one member without radar data for impact study. • Daily convection-resolving forecast at 1 km resolution with radar data. Same forecast length and domain as 4-km ensemble. • Daily 2-member (one with and one without radar) 18-hour-long ensemble forecasts from 1200 UTC for a smaller domain centered on VORTEX-2 domain. • On-demand 1 or 2-member 12-hour-long forecasts from 1800 UTC, for the same smaller domain • The forecasts will use ~1500 CPUs at PSC for 4 km ensemble and ~10,000 CPUs at Oakridge National Lab/U. of Tennessee for 1 km forecasts and will consume about 2.7 million CPU-hours total. Forecasts will be sent to HWT and posted on the web in real time. All output will be archived.

  2. Table 1. Planned configurations for members with ARW core (for spring 2009). NAMa and NAMf refer to 12 km NAM analysis and forecast, respectively. ARPSa refers to ARPS 3DVAR and cloud analysis. * For all members: ra_lw_physics= RRTM; cu_physics= NONE

  3. Table 2. Planned configurations for members with NMM core for spring 2009 * For all members: cu_physics= NONE

  4. Statistics from Spring 2007 ensemble experiment, where phx referrs to members with physics perturbations only(see Table 1 of http://twister.ou.edu/papers/SchartzEtal_WAF2009.pdf) (Schwartz et al. WAF 2009)

  5. Example: 9-h WRF-ARW forecasts valid at 09 Z, 5/26/2008(Xue et al. GRL 2009, to be submitted) Observed composite reflectivity 1 km fcst assimilating radar 4 km fcst with radar 4 km fcst without radar

  6. Precipitation verification for spring 2008 forecastsHourly precipitation ETS scores against NSSL 1-km multi-sensor QPE 0.01 inch/hour threshold with radar No radar 0.5 inch/hour threshold with radar No radar (From Xue et al. 2008 SLS Conf.)

  7. (References. Links are live in presentation view, or right click then open hyperlink) Xue, M., F. Kong, D. Weber, K. W. Thomas, Y. Wang, K. Brewster, K. K. Droegemeier, J. S. K. S. J. Weiss, D. R. Bright, M. S. Wandishin, M. C. Coniglio, and J. Du, 2007: CAPS realtime storm-scale ensemble and high-resolution forecasts as part of the NOAA hazardous weather testbed 2007 spring experiment. 22nd Conf. Wea. Anal. Forecasting/18th Conf. Num. Wea. Pred., Salt Lake City, Utah, Amer. Meteor. Soc., CDROM 3B.1. Kong, F., M. Xue, Kelvin K. Droegemeier, D. Bright, M. C. Coniglio, K. W. Thomas, Y. Wang, D. Weber, J. S. Kain, S. J. Weiss, and J. Du, 2007: Preliminary analysis on the real-time storm-scale ensemble forecasts produced as a part of the NOAA hazardous weather testbed 2007 spring experiment. 22nd Conf. Wea. Anal. Forecasting/18th Conf. Num. Wea. Pred., Salt Lake City, Utah, Amer. Meteor. Soc., CDROM 3B.2. Xue, M., F. Kong, K. W. Thomas, J. Gao, Y. Wang, K. Brewster, K. K. Droegemeier, J. Kain, S. Weiss, D. Bright, M. Coniglio, and J. Du, 2008: CAPS realtime storm-scale ensemble and high-resolution forecasts as part of the NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed 2008 Spring Experiment. 24th Conf. Several Local Storms, Savannah, GA, Ameri. Meteor. Soc., Page 12.2 Kong, F., M. Xue, M. Xue, K. K. Droegemeier, K. W. Thomas, Y. Wang, J. S. Kain, S. J. Weiss, D. Bright, and J. Du, 2008: Real-time storm-scale ensemble forecasting during the 2008 spring experiment. 24th Conf. Several Local Storms, Savannah, GA, Ameri. Meteor. Soc., Paper 12.3. Coniglio, M. C., K. L. Elmore, J. S. Kain, S. Weiss, and M. Xue, 2009: Evaluation of WRF model output for severe-weather forecasting from the 2008 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Experiment. Wea. Forcasting, Conditionally accepted. Schwartz, C., J. Kain, S. Weiss, M. Xue, D. Bright, F. Kong, K. Thomas, J. Levit, and M. Coniglio, 2009: Next-day convection-allowing WRF model guidance: A second look at 2 vs. 4 km grid spacing. Mon. Wea. Rev., Accepted. Schwartz, C. S., J. S. Kain, S. J. Weiss, M. Xue, D. R. Bright, F. Kong, K. W.Thomas, J. J. Levit, M. C. Coniglio, and M. S. Wandishin, 2009: Toward improved convection-allowing ensembles: model physics sensitivities and optimizing probabilistic guidance with small ensemble membership. Wea. Forcasting, Conditionally accepted. Clark, A. J., W. A. Gallus, Jr., M. Xue, and F. Kong, 2009: A comparison of precipitation forecast skill between small near-convection-permitting and large convection-parameterizing ensembles. Wea. and Forecasting, Accepted. Xue, M., F. Kong, K. W. Thomas, J. Gao, Y. Wang, K. Brewster, and K. K. Droegemeier, 2009: Prediction of convective sorms at convection-resolving 1-km resolution over continental United States with radar data assimilation: An example case of 26 May 2008. Geophy. Res. Letters, Being submitted.

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