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Dr.Heinz-Detlef Gregor, WGE Bureau Consultant, Director and Professor a.D., Umweltbundesamt

The Potential for Further Developing Effects Monitoring. Monitoring and modelling air pollution effects on a European scale in the framework of the Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution. Recommendations for Increasing EECCA Participation. Dr.Heinz-Detlef Gregor, WGE Bureau

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Dr.Heinz-Detlef Gregor, WGE Bureau Consultant, Director and Professor a.D., Umweltbundesamt

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  1. The Potential for Further Developing Effects Monitoring Monitoring and modelling air pollution effects on a European scale in the framework of the Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution Recommendations for Increasing EECCA Participation Dr.Heinz-Detlef Gregor, WGE Bureau Consultant, Director and Professor a.D., Umweltbundesamt Germany CAPACT final meeting, Almaty, Kazakhstan 4-6 July 2007

  2. Photo: B.O. Rosseland In the beginning were the effects ... Photo: H.D.Gregor CAPACT final meeting, Almaty, Kazakhstan 4-6 July 2007

  3. N NO 194 DK 132 Export [ 10 5 kg nitrogen], i.e. IE 7 Depositions in other European SE 371 countries, caused by Germany, year 2000 IS 5 FI 142 GB 58 PL 702 NL 79 UA 238 1199 BY 133 RU 653 LV 61 EE 44 BE 48 LT 70 396 CZ 329 SK 67 LU 7 HU 76 TR 39 FR 210 GR 18 AL 7 ES 16 RO 112 PT 2 BG 30 CH 44 HR 36 MD 11 YU 43 104 SI 21 IT 96 BA 30 AT 268 HR 42 FYM 4 MK 5 4.434 * 105 kg CAPACT final meeting, Almaty, Kazakhstan 4-6 July 2007

  4. Import [105 kg nitrogen], i.e. depositions in Italy, caused by other European countries, year 2000 AT 30 CH 42 DE 96 SE 1 FI 0 DK 3 PL 16 NO 1 UA 6 12 BY 1 IE 2 RU 5 LV 0 IS 0 EE 0 LT 0 22 GB 21 CZ 18 SK 4 HU 13 NL 15 TR 6 BE 12 GR 25 LU 1 AL 7 MK 3 FR 232 RO 13 BG 9 ES 182 HR 23 CY 0 51 PT 17 MD 0 YU 13 SI 19 BA 19 855 * 105 kg N CAPACT final meeting, Almaty, Kazakhstan 4-6 July 2007

  5. Kara Sea Barents Sea Kara Sea Barents Sea Artic Ocean Artic Ocean Canada Canada Iceland Pacific Ocean Iceland Finland of America Pacific Ocean North Sea United States of America Finland Atlantic Ocean North Sea Norway Sweden Atlantic Ocean Russian Federation Estonia Norway Sweden Russian Federation Estonia Latvia Lithuania Denmark Latvia Lithuania Denmark Ireland Belarus United Poland Ireland Kingdom Netherlands Belarus United Poland Germany Kingdom Netherlands Belgium Ukraine Czech Rep. Germany Belgium Kazakhstan Luxembourg Slovakia Ukraine Czech Rep. Austria Luxembourg Slovakia Hungary Moldova France Liechtenstein Austria Switzerland Aral Hungary Moldova Atlantic Ocean Slovenia France Liechtenstein Romania Switzerland Sea Aral Croatia Atlantic Ocean Slovenia Romania Sea Bosnia and Croatia Yugoslavia Monaco Herzegovina Black Sea Bosnia and Kyrgyzstan Caspian Bulgaria Serbia and Montenegro Monaco Herzegovina Georgia Black Sea Kyrgyzstan Caspian Sea Bulgaria F.Y.R.of Italy Georgia Sea Albania Macedonia F.Y.R.of Italy Azerbaijan Albania Macedonia Armenia Spain Armenia Spain Greece Turkey Portugal Greece Turkey Portugal Malta Malta Cyprus Mediterranean Sea Cyprus Mediterranean Sea 34  51 Parties to the Convention CAPACT final meeting, Almaty, Kazakhstan 4-6 July 2007

  6. The Protocols S - ambition levels increased stepwise - • 1985 and 1994 Sulphur Protocols • 1988 NOx Protocol • 1991 VOC Protocol • 1998 Heavy Metals Protocol • 1998 POP Protocol • 1999 Gothenburg Protocol • multi-pollutant multi-effect N VOC HM POP Multi CAPACT final meeting, Almaty, Kazakhstan 4-6 July 2007

  7. What are the main obstacles for so many Parties to sign/ratify Protocols? CAPACT final meeting, Almaty, Kazakhstan 4-6 July 2007

  8. M&M Protocol obligations:The Parties shall reduce their emissions (Art. 2), support the provision of information (Art. 5), gather information on effects on human health, ecosystems and materials and ensure its availability (Art. 6). submit emission data on S, N, VOC (Art. 7), support harmonisation of methods for monitoring and assessment of effects and trends (Art. 8). CAPACT final meeting, Almaty, Kazakhstan 4-6 July 2007

  9. EOA: monitor state of the environment and changes with causative explanations develop and validate models detect changes by biomonitoring investigate ecosystems, cross-media fluxes cause-effect approach stocks at risk/risk assessment critical levels/loads and exceedances Cause-effect approach Cross-media flux approach CAPACT final meeting, Almaty, Kazakhstan 4-6 July 2007

  10. Monitoring the Environment with Effects in Mind CAPACT final meeting, Almaty, Kazakhstan 4-6 July 2007

  11. ICP VEGETATION ICP Waters The International Cooperative Programmes (ICPs) and the Task Force on Health: observation networks Effects Community: 42 170 1900 Integrated Monitoring ICP CAPACT final meeting, Almaty, Kazakhstan 4-6 July 2007

  12. Participation in EOA ICP Forests ICP Waters ICP Materials ICP Vegetation ICP Integr. Monitoring ICP Modelling and Mapping Taskforce Health mt data mt dt m data mt data mtg data mtg data mtg Armenia 2007 Belarus level I § 06 06 2005 (HM) 2005 2006 2007 2005 2005 2007 2005 2006 2007 Azerbaijan 2007 Georgia 2007 2005 2006 2007 Kazakhstan 2007 Kyrgyzstan 2006 2007 Republic ofMoldova level I § 07 1998 2006 2007 Russian Federation 05 06 1996 (soil) 06 06 1987–2003 05 06 07 2007¤ (HM) 2005 2006 2007 2005 2005 2006 2007 2005 2006 2007 2005 2006 Tajikistan* Turkmenist.* Ukraine 05 level I § 07 2007 O3 HM 2005 2006 2007 2005 2006 2007 2005 Uzbekistan* 07 * not Party to the Convention ¤ Data for moss survey in 2005–2006 will be supplied in 2007. § Data for defoliation for some years. What are the main obstacles for so many Parties to join EOA? CAPACT final meeting, Almaty, Kazakhstan 4-6 July 2007

  13. Level II plots CAPACT final meeting, Almaty, Kazakhstan 4-6 July 2007

  14. mean defoliation [%] 1989 2001 CAPACT final meeting, Almaty, Kazakhstan 4-6 July 2007

  15. ICP Forests – Selected major achievements (2006) Significant downward trends in S deposition, no trends in N depositions Correlations between pollution status and vegetation clear relationship between soil pH and ground vegetation N deposition was reflected in composition of ground vegetation Dynamic modelling Assuming Gothenburg implementation many plots will show recovery within the next decades, but the original soil pH will not be reached at all plots. Biodiversity The BERN Model was applied at 3 plots. Changes in the C/N ratio and base saturation as result of atmospheric deposition would lead to vegetation changes. CAPACT final meeting, Almaty, Kazakhstan 4-6 July 2007

  16. CAPACT final meeting, Almaty, Kazakhstan 4-6 July 2007

  17. Heavy metals moss survey European heavy metal (N) in moss survey: 2005/6 • Ca. 7000 (3200) sites in 32 (18) countries • Al, As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Fe, Hg, Ni, Pb, Sb, V, Zn, (N) • Interlaboratory calibration exercise CAPACT final meeting, Almaty, Kazakhstan 4-6 July 2007

  18. ICP VEGETATION 25th WGE session Five regional centres to collate field-based evidence for effects of ozone CAPACT final meeting, Almaty, Kazakhstan 4-6 July 2007

  19. Biological recovery(as observed by ICP Waters in Norway) shows improvements over the last 10 – 14 years. The recovery is most pronounced the latest years Baetis Rhodani EB.AIR/WG.1/2004/6 CAPACT final meeting, Almaty, Kazakhstan 4-6 July 2007

  20. The catchment approach deposition wet dry aerosols and gases tree bioelements epiphyte response tree response understorey veg. response litter fall throughfall weathering soil water soil decomposition, mineralisation root uptake groundwater surface water run off http://www.environment.fi/default.asp?contentid=17110&lan=en process oriented - budget calculations CAPACT final meeting, Almaty, Kazakhstan 4-6 July 2007

  21. input – output relations in out CAPACT final meeting, Almaty, Kazakhstan 4-6 July 2007

  22. ICP Materials – Selected major achievements (2005) Areas with increased risk of corrosion 1980 2000 CAPACT final meeting, Almaty, Kazakhstan 4-6 July 2007

  23. WEG, 25th Session, Task Force on Health Main recent activities - Health risk of heavy metals from LRTAP- Health risks of PM from LRTAP - Health risks of O3 from LRTAP- Assessment of health impacts of air pollution in EECCA CAPACT final meeting, Almaty, Kazakhstan 4-6 July 2007

  24. WGE, 25th Session, Task Force on Health Estimated rural concentrations of ozone (average meteorological data for 1997, 1999, 2000 and 2003): SOMO35, ppb.days 2000 2020 CAPACT final meeting, Almaty, Kazakhstan 4-6 July 2007

  25. Simple Mass Balance CAPACT final meeting, Almaty, Kazakhstan 4-6 July 2007

  26. Prioritization: Pollutants: - SOx, NOy, NHx - Heavy metals Receptors: - Forest - Natural and semi-natural vegetation - Aquatic ecosystems CAPACT final meeting, Almaty, Kazakhstan 4-6 July 2007

  27. CAPACT final meeting, Almaty, Kazakhstan 4-6 July 2007

  28. Excess deposition of acidity over Critical Loads in 1990 and 2010 if the Gothenburg protocol is fully implemented. 1990 2010 The observed decrease in exceedances is due to a substantial sulphur reduction. However, the emission of nitrogen oxides and ammonia will continue to contribute to acidification and eutrophication. CAPACT final meeting, Almaty, Kazakhstan 4-6 July 2007

  29. Recommendations to ensure active and stepwise increasing participation in EOA Analyse current national situation: Identify existing expertise and experts in the research community; Identify existing national monitoring and modelling activities and available databases; Provide infrastructure for national coordination / subregional cooperation Describe areas where national expertise could benefit from capacity building or other support. CAPACT final meeting, Almaty, Kazakhstan 4-6 July 2007

  30. Recommendations to ensure active and stepwise increasing participation Analyse current national situation: Identify existing expertise and experts in the research community; Identify existing national monitoring and modelling activities and available databases; Provide infrastructure for national coordination / subregional cooperation Describe areas where national expertise could benefit from capacity building or other support. Affiliate to activities: Prioritize receptors according to their sensitivity for monitoring, modelling and research: e.g. human health, lake and stream catchments, forest soils, trees, vegetation, crops, biodiversity, technical materials and cultural objects etc.); Nominate individual experts to coordinators and participants for prioritized programmes (ICPs/TF); Appoint official national focal points for prioritized programmes; Define basic workplans for national focal points. CAPACT final meeting, Almaty, Kazakhstan 4-6 July 2007

  31. Recommendations to ensure active and stepwise increasing participation Analyse current national situation: Identify existing expertise and experts in the research community; Identify existing national monitoring and modelling activities and available databases; Provide infrastructure for national coordination / subregional cooperation Describe areas where national expertise could benefit from capacity building or other support. Affiliate to activities: Prioritize receptors according to their sensitivity for monitoring, modelling and research: e.g. human health, lake and stream catchments, forest soils, trees, vegetation, crops, biodiversity, technical materials and cultural objects etc.); Nominate individual experts to coordinators and participants for prioritized programmes (ICPs/TF); Appoint official national focal points for prioritized programmes; Define basic workplans for national focal points. Participate in prioritized programme activities (ICPs/TF) with existing national data and expertise: Compile and submit existing data to resp. Programme Centres Participate actively in the evaluation of those data; Ensure experts to attend annual programme meetings, always with oral presentation / written summary in English. CAPACT final meeting, Almaty, Kazakhstan 4-6 July 2007

  32. Recommendations to ensure active and stepwise increasing participation Analyse current national situation: Identify existing expertise and experts in the research community; Identify existing national monitoring and modelling activities and available databases; Provide infrastructure for national coordination / subregional cooperation Describe areas where national expertise could benefit from capacity building or other support. Affiliate to activities: Prioritize receptors according to their sensitivity for monitoring, modelling and research: e.g. human health, lake and stream catchments, forest soils, trees, vegetation, crops, biodiversity, technical materials and cultural objects etc.); Nominate individual experts to coordinators and participants for prioritized programmes (ICPs/TF); Appoint official national focal points for prioritized programmes; Define basic workplans for national focal points. Participate in prioritized programme activities (ICPs/TF) with existing national data and expertise: Compile and submit existing data to resp. Programme Centres Participate actively in the evaluation of those data; Ensure experts to attend annual programme meetings, always with oral presentation / written summary in English. Design sites and start to monitor effects: Identify priority parameters and responsible experts for monitoring (for chosen most important receptors); Check minimum data requirements; Assess existing capacity for actually conducting the monitoring; Start with few sites that cover requirements of several programmes (ICPs/TF); Ensure resources to analyse data and report results. CAPACT final meeting, Almaty, Kazakhstan 4-6 July 2007

  33. ^^ Recommendations to ensure active and stepwise increasing participation Analyse current national situation: Identify existing expertise and experts in the research community; Identify existing national monitoring and modelling activities and available databases; Provide infrastructure for national coordination / subregional cooperation Describe areas where national expertise could benefit from capacity building or other support. Affiliate to activities: Prioritize receptors according to their sensitivity for monitoring, modelling and research: e.g. human health, lake and stream catchments, forest soils, trees, vegetation, crops, biodiversity, technical materials and cultural objects etc.); Nominate individual experts to coordinators and participants for prioritized programmes (ICPs/TF); Appoint official national focal points for prioritized programmes; Define basic workplans for national focal points. Participate in prioritized programme activities (ICPs/TF) with existing national data and expertise: Compile and submit existing data to resp. Programme Centres Participate actively in the evaluation of those data; Ensure experts to attend annual programme meetings, always with oral presentation / written summary in English. Design sites and start to monitor effects: Identify priority parameters and responsible experts for monitoring (for chosen most important receptors); Check minimum data requirements; Assess existing capacity for actually conducting the monitoring; Start with few sites that cover requirements of several programmes (ICPs/TF); Ensure resources to analyse data and report results. Integrate research activities: Coordinate monitoring, evaluation of data, modelling and overall assessment; Ensure cooperation, coordination and harmonisation at national and subregional levels; Conduct/participate in subregional (thematic) workshops, expert training sessions and cooperation with neighbouring countries. CAPACT final meeting, Almaty, Kazakhstan 4-6 July 2007

  34. Do you see more clearly now ?? Thank you for your kind attention! See you in Geneva, August 2007, and at 2008 programme meetings! CAPACT final meeting, Almaty, Kazakhstan 4-6 July 2007

  35. ......and report to WGE on your experiences, results, technical or scientific problems, ......and expectations. CAPACT final meeting, Almaty, Kazakhstan 4-6 July 2007

  36. 27 years of work under the UNECE Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution has resulted in a wealth of published material and internet presentations that made it an easy task to collate this brochure. The effort of numerous individual authors, groups and organisations that directly or indirectly found its way into this presentation is gratefully acknowledged. • Information on recent reports & publications, the 2007 TF Meetings and more details on achievements and ongoing activities of ICPs and TF Health may be drawn from the • Joint Report: Doc. EB.AIR/WG.1/2007/3, • the Technical Reports: Doc. EB.AIR/WG.1/2007/5 ..... /14 • and the CLRTAP´s, WGE´s and ICPs´/TFs´ web sites: Need more information? Try here: gregor.wge@web.de or: Programme Centre ICP Forest http://www.icp-forests.org/ Programme Centre ICP Waters http://www.niva.no/ICP-waters/ICP_index.htm Programme Centre ICP Materials http://www.corr-institute.se/ICP-Materials/ Programme Centre ICP Vegetation http://icpvegetation.ceh.ac.uk/ Programme Centre ICP Integrated Monitoring http://www.environment.fi/ default.asp?contentid=17110&lan=en Programme Centre ICP Modelling and Mapping http://www.icpmapping/org Joint Task Force on Health Aspects, WHO European Ctre for Env. and Health, Bonn Office http://www.euro.who.int/air CAPACT final meeting, Almaty, Kazakhstan 4-6 July 2007

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