Adapta tion to Climate Ch ange and the Worl d Bank

1. Adaptation to Climate Change and the World Bank Ian Noble

2. The poor will face the greatest challenges from climate change. 2 Billion people in developing countries affected by a climate related disaster in the 1990s. Double in the 2000s? 40 to 80% of the population in developing countries versus a few % in more developed countries

3. Identify vulnerable sectors Local social, economic, environmental and political pressures Prioritise Compile list of measures Prioritise the list of measures Developing Country Development decision Guidance for TNA Most development decisions Other Lenders & Donors World Bank Climate Change

4. Investment flow UNFCCC

5. Climate change is already affecting natural and social systems Implicit: “And your project could be next!” And is relevant to project planning Messages to my Bank colleagues

6. Climate variability is already a major impediment to development. Ethiopia A water rich developing country, but with GDP still tied to yearly rainfall variations 25 20 15 10 5 0 0 % -5 -20 1992 1987 1990 1997 1998 2000 1989 1993 1995 1988 1991 1994 1996 1999 1982 1984 1985 1983 1986 -10 -15 -40 rainfall variability -20 -60 GDP growth -25 Ag GDP growth -80 -30 year Preliminary results from :A Country Water Resources Assistance Strategy for Ethiopia From Claudia Sadoff

7. Ethiopia Including climate variability gives a different picture of growth prospects • Model of 12 years of growth using • Smoothed (average rainfall) • A simulated 2-year drought • Realistic variability 1%

8. Ethiopia Using variable rainfall gives a more balanced outcome for investments in irrigation versus roads

9. Climate change is a development issue – right now Should we use the term “climate proofing”?

10. A climate risk approach Climate risk management means that the Bank should assess, and where necessary act upon, the threats and opportunities that result from both existing and futureclimate variability, including those deriving from climate change, in all project and country level activities. Sub text: Climate volatility is another factor that must be taken into account in development planning

11. How are we going? Currently only 17 out of 73 CASs and 4 out of 35 completed PRSPs refer to the potential effects of climate change. Of the 17 CASs only 8 have a clear statement about adaptation

12. Pitfalls • “Projectisation” of adaptation • Separates adaptation form core development planning • Often embroils adaptation in institutional rivalries • Not appreciating the immediacy • Endless loop of “better information” • Downscaling & impact modelling • Seeking the ideal at the expense of the pragmatic • E.g. Seeking only ‘adaptation with mitigation’ synergies

13. Next steps • Improve tools available to project managers – within Bank and in client countries • Pilot projects to gain practical experience in mainstreaming adaptation • Move climate variability and change issues into planning tools such as CEA

14. Next steps • Improve tools available to project managers – within Bank and in client countries • Simple screening tool • Readily available tools for ‘downscaling’ and impact assessment • Linking the biophysical and the socio-economic analyses • Pilot projects to gain practical experience in mainstreaming adaptation • Move climate variability and change issues into planning tools such as CEA

15. Agricultural data Meteorological data Hydrological data Drought mitigation strategies Agro-meteorological model  Crop yield and production, livestock losses model Planting areas model Hydrological model Probabilistic drought risk assessment model Climate change scenarios Rainfall simulator Direct agricultural loss estimates Macro Economic analysis State fiscal exposure Risk financing arrangements Direct and indirect economic losses Structure of AP Analysis

16. Integrated Tool

17. Next steps • Improve tools available to project managers – within Bank and in client countries • Pilot projects to gain practical experience in mainstreaming adaptation • Effective use of GEF resources • These are critical “pump priming” funds • Move climate variability and change issues into planning tools such as CEA

18. Next steps • Improve tools available to project managers – within Bank and in client countries • Pilot projects to gain practical experience in mainstreaming adaptation • Move climate variability and change issues into planning tools such as Country Assistance Strategies (CASs) and PRSPs • Approach with caution • Let’s provide the “carrots” first (e.g. the tools etc) before appearing to threaten with a “stick”

19. Next steps • Improve tools available to project managers – within Bank and in client countries • Pilot projects to gain practical experience in mainstreaming adaptation • Move climate variability and change issues into planning tools such as CEA Ultimately climate volatility should be treated as other volatilities (commodity prices, exchange rates, social volatilities etc) in development planning

20. A Screening & Design Tool for Considering Adaptation to Climate Change

21. Target Audience: Project developers (national, bilateral and multilateral) and assessors; NGOs Not community level decision making This is a different, and critically important task Seek compatibility and synergies Purpose: Provide a first, quick check of potential issues that might arise in project design or implementation Provide a lead into appropriate knowledge & experience Increase awareness of the issues of climate variability and change Screening & design tool Contact Ian Noble World Bank inoble@worldbank.org

22. Levels of advice provided Red flag – adaptation issues are important and further follow up is strongly recommended Yellow flag – some concerns, which should be checked Orange – Not enough known to assess Green flag – No adaptation issues foreseen Blue flag – Positive action for adaptation Based on existing knowledge Captured via expert systems to identify key activities that might be sensitive to climate variability & change Qualitative climate change data based combining models and current trends Qualitative assessment of risks and opportunities Pointers to appropriate literature, projects, tolls and experts Screening & design tool Contact Ian Noble World Bank inoble@worldbank.org

23. User Guidance on risk avoidance and adaptation options A framework for a screening & design tool What do project managers need?

24. Document database Experts Additional tools Project database User Guidance on risk avoidance and adaptation options A framework for a screening & design tool Bring together the expanding database of information Good Practice Interpretation

25. Document database Experts Additional tools Location Climate parameter Project database User Guidance on risk avoidance and adaptation options (eg average rainfall, rainfall variability, temperature etc) Projected direction of climate change Climate parameter Risk elements & Location Climate sensitivity for an activity Climate sensitivity Activities Direction of climate change (increase, no change, decrease, unknown) A framework for a screening & design tool Provide a screening tool to guide user to appropriate material Technical complexity – Multiple models – changing data bases

26. Document database Experts Additional tools Location Climate parameter Project database User Guidance on risk avoidance and adaptation options (eg average rainfall, rainfall variability, temperature etc) Projected direction of climate change Climate parameter Risk elements & Location Climate sensitivity for an activity Climate sensitivity Activities Direction of climate change (increase, no change, decrease, unknown) A framework for a screening & design tool Based on best expert advice? Selected scenarios and current trends Expert assessment of sensitivities Expert assessment of relevant activities

27. Document database Experts Additional tools Location Climate parameter Project database User Guidance on risk avoidance and adaptation options (eg average rainfall, rainfall variability, temperature etc) Projected direction of climate change Climate parameter Relevant guidance to … Risk elements & Location Climate sensitivity for an activity Climate sensitivity Leading to … Activities gdfsgfd gdfsgfd Direction of climate change (increase, no change, decrease, unknown) gdfsgfd gdfsgfd A framework for a screening & design tool What does the user see? A series of questions about their project

28. Tool for Adaptation to Climate Change TACC

29. Help about the question and about each option Ability to change ones mind

30. Users are asked to identify the location of their project. This can either be via lat-long coordinates or pointing to a map The underlying climate change data base will be based on expert assessment of the various models and of recent trends. A composite map representing climate change for each variable over the next 20 to 30 years will be prepared.

31. Printed summary

32. Printed list of documents

33. An identified climate sensitive activity – yellow flag An explanation of the rating Useful documents Most documents can be displayed from the Tool

35. Simple Expert System

36. The tool is being designed and implemented initially in Excel. It has a number of tools to help users to expand or modify the knowledge base. Later it will be converted to a web-based script. The tool and many of the documents will fit on a CD

37. Adaptation in the Bank • Climate change is already a threat to development • A risk management approach (tackle current climate variability and climate change) • Learn through pilots and ESW • Develop good practice guidance and tools for project designers • Goal to treat climate volatility as an essential part of development planning