UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education, Delft (member of NCR, Netherlands) Prof. R.K. Price

1. Novel approaches to modelling floods:data-driven and hybrid modelling, managing risk and uncertainty[ FLOODsite FP6 project] UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education, Delft (member of NCR, Netherlands) Prof. R.K. Price Dr. D.P. Solomatine (presenting, sol@ihe.nl ) www.ihe.nl/hi

2. Modelling • Physically-based modelling: • integrated meteorological, reservoir control, rural and urban catchment runoff, channel-flood plain routing, estuary and coastal water surges • integrated monitoring and modelling for reliable updating • Novel complementary approaches: data-driven modelling (computational intelligence) • flood forecasting using artificial neural networks • remote sensing images classification using Kohonen neural networks and support vector machines • pattern recognition of radar images for rainfall forecasting • Hybrid modelling in integrated modelling frameworks • combination of different modelling paradigms EU-FP6: Floods. IHE-Delft.

3. Knowledge transfer • Platform-based community of practice focussed on best practices and incorporating dynamic knowledge bases with case studies • Modelling systems laboratory accessible by Internet • Continuing professional development including courses on Flood management and modelling: • combination of e-learning and face-to-face • training based on extensive use of modelling tools • licensing of modelling practitioners EU-FP6: Floods. IHE-Delft.

4. UNSECO-IHE: research group in Hydroinformatics • 4 lecturers and researchers, all with PhD titles • 3 PhD students • 120 publications in the last 5 years • main area of expertise: novel approaches in water-related modelling, including data mining and computational intelligence • experience in 6 EU projects during the last 5 years: • TELEFLEUR (Flood emergencies in urban areas) • ELTRAMOS - Electronic trading of modelling services and assets for engineering small and medium enterprises and institutes • ETNET 21 ENVIRONMENT-WATER - European Thematic Network of Education and Training for Environment-Water • OSIRIS - Operational Solutions for the Management of Inundation Risks in the Information Society • projects related to education EU-FP6: Floods. IHE-Delft.

5. OSIRIS: Operational Solutions for the Management of Inundation Risks in the Information Society • Main objectives: • Increase awareness • Efficient protection measures • Improve quality of information and modelling • Access to information • Results oriented towards: • Basin managers • Emergency centres • Concerned citizens End User Sites Members: SOGREAH (France), IMWM (Poland), BTUC (Germany), Italy and others. IHE’s main contribution: • Quality of information and modelling: uncertainty management EU-FP6: Floods. IHE-Delft.

6. Uncertainty Issues to be Addressed Characterization: • Quantitative and Qualitative uncertainty Methods for representation and propagation: • Probability theory-based (quantitative uncertainty) • Fuzzy set theory-based (qualitative uncertainty) Future vision: • Quantitative/qualitative concept to risk quantification • Develop generic tool that integrates both approaches • Uncertainty/risk based warning systems EU-FP6: Floods. IHE-Delft.

7. Architecture of a hydroinformatics system for flood warning (EU TELEFLEUR project) EU-FP6: Floods. IHE-Delft.

8. TELEFLEUR project: interface to the flood warning DSS EU-FP6: Floods. IHE-Delft.

9. (w . x) + b = 0 x2 (w . x) + b < 0 (w . x) + b > 0 support vector machines x1 weights weights a ij b jk x 1 y1 u 1x x 2 y2 y3 x 3 u s x n ym Hidden layer Inputs Outputs Using computational intelligence (machine learning) in flood forecasting neural networks committee machines EU-FP6: Floods. IHE-Delft.

10. Experience in software development and integration neural network modelling system EU-FP6: Floods. IHE-Delft.

11. We would like to complement partners that: • have expertise in flood-related issues • recognise the importance of new approaches to modelling • are fun to work with EU-FP6: Floods. IHE-Delft.