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VIA Water lunch lectures Unesco-IHE Africa 2100

VIA Water lunch lectures Unesco-IHE Africa 2100. Ton Dietz African Studies Centre Leiden www.ascleiden.nl http://countryportal.ascleiden.nl. My Silverlining Storyline in 2011:

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VIA Water lunch lectures Unesco-IHE Africa 2100

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  1. VIA Water lunch lectures Unesco-IHE Africa 2100 Ton Dietz African Studies Centre Leiden www.ascleiden.nl http://countryportal.ascleiden.nl

  2. My Silverlining Storyline in 2011: Micro-perspective: Northern Ghana/Southern Burkina Faso: PADevresults: localperceptions of overall impressiveimprovements of naturalandphysicalcapital, human capabilities, economicgrowth, globalconnections (mobile phones; internet) andpoliticalvoice, and major changes in culturalidentitiesbetween ca 1980 and ca 2010. Macro-perspective: forthewhole of Africa: major improvements in life expectancy, education levels, access to health care and safe water, and on average high economicgrowthfigures 2000-2010: “Africarising”, “EmergingAfrica”. Based on high pricesforrawmaterials + Asiandemand + rapidgrowth in urbandemandandemergingmiddle classes + more stable, andpartly more developmentalstates, and ‘pockets of effectiveness’. Sincethen: from MDG to Global Goals. Africa as major focus of the ‘development industry’. And more emphasis on inequality and inclusive development to counter inequality.

  3. YES, theworldnow has Global Goals forSustainable Development for 2015-2030, aftertheMDGs 2000-2015. But theyneglectAfrica’spopulationgrowth…….

  4. First: what are the population and fertility data? • Year Europe Africa • 1650 100m = 17% 80-100m = 16% • 1900 650m = 25% 100-150m= 5% • 2015 750m = 11% 1166m = 16% Fertility: Africa leads, by far http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2012/9/19/668145-13480896190968738-Jan-Schalkwijk.jpg

  5. Current fertilitydifferences in Africa. World championfertility 2015 : Niger (6.76 children per woman); followedby Burundi (6.09) and Mali (6.06) Other African countries: Nigeria 5.19 Ethiopia: 5.15 Congo DR 4.66 Senegal: 4.44 Ghana: 4.06 Kenya: 3.31 Egypt: 2.83 South Africa: 2.33 https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2127rank.html Africa: populationpyramid 2015, with 1,166,239,000 inhabitants http://populationpyramid.net/africa/2015/ >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

  6. Africa = Veryyoungpopulation (withmany girls whowill get manychildren) + High fertility (far above ‘replacementrate’) + Growing life expectancy = For many decades tocome: (very) high populationgrowth BIG differencewith Europe!

  7. Extremelyyoung indeed! http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_median_age

  8. Demographicpredictions: People in millions Europe Africa 2015 740m 1080-1170m 2030 720-750m 1700-1900m 2050 700-800m 2000-2400m 2100 650-850m 3400-4400m Estimate 2030 on the basis of http://www.demographics.at/Growth-Decline/images/fig_tot-pop_africa_variants_1950-2100_wpp2012_s.gif Estimates 2050 and 2100 for Africa: http://www.demographics.at/Growth-Decline/images/PPP2015_Africa_Tot-Pop_1950-2100.gif Europa: http://www.demographics.at/Growth-Decline/fig_ppp2015_africa-europe_tot-pop.htm

  9. http://www.demographics.at/Growth-Decline/fig_ppp2015_africa-europe_tot-pop.htmhttp://www.demographics.at/Growth-Decline/fig_ppp2015_africa-europe_tot-pop.htm

  10. Predictionsfor 2010-2050? http://e360.yale.edu/images/features/Chart1_total_fertility_rate.jpg

  11. Long term prospectsfor 2100? http://explainingprogress.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/UN-Estimates-and-Forecasts-Total-fertility-by-major-regions-1950-2100-children-per-woman-UN.png

  12. So: despiteloweringfertility: Africamight have 3.4 or even 4 billionpeople in 2100

  13. But currentlyalready big differences in populationdensities https://inafu6212-001-2012-3.wikischolars.columbia.edu/Telemedicine+-+Nigeria+case+study

  14. And MAJOR FurtherUrbanisationtobeexpected. Yearurban % urbanpeople 10 10m 1900 15 15m 1960 20 65m 2015 45 480m 2050 60 1200-1440m 2100 70 2400-3100m

  15. Welcometo Lagos! 2010: 17.6m – 21m inhabitants Nigeria: currentpopulationgrowth per year: 2.67% Ifthatgrowthcontinues, andtheurbangrowth is 20% higherthanthegrowthforthe country as a whole: Lagos willgrowwith 3.2% per year Ifthatreallycontinues: the Lagos agglomerationwill have between 62 and 75 millionpeople in 2050. And in 2100: 292 – 361 million…..

  16. Allurbanpeopleneed shelter, food, water, energy, etc, etc. Most urbanpeople are young, impatient, full of energy and well informedabouttheworld. It willcreate a (further) explosion of demandforgoodsand services fromthesurrounding hinterland anditthat is notenough: imports. But can ‘emergingAfrica’ payforthat? CanAfricacompetewiththedemandfromelsewhere? AndwillAfricanyouthbepatientenoughnottoleaveen masse?

  17. WhatwillthismeanforAfrica’snatural resources? It is obvious (is it?): Major intensification and expansion of crop cultivation, animal husbandry, horticulture and forestry (already happening) + expanding cityscapes. = An even higherpressure on land and water + threatstoremainingforestsandwildlife. + Geographicalexpansion of pressure on land, water andminerals + High chances of conflicts over natural resources andbetweenpeoplewith different identities. And at theexpense of nature, biodiversityandclimatestability.

  18. Will Africareally get somany (new) urbanpeople? NOT IF: The fertilitydecreases more rapidlythanpredicted Youngsters are lessinclinedto go tothecities Elderlypeople return tothe countryside ManypeoplewillmigratefromAfrica Manypeoplewill die because of (civil) war, famine, epidemics or other disasters (theMalthusianperspective).

  19. And indeed: fertility CAN becomemuchlowermuchfasterthanexpected: theexample of South Africa! http://www.faculty.fairfield.edu/faculty/hodgson/Courses/so191/Projects2010/Marianne_Gil/Part3.html

  20. CanitbeexpectedthatallthoseyoungAfricansstay in Africa? Or is itmuch more likelythatmanywill (want to) migrate? In 2012 therewere ca 14 millionAfricansoutsideAfrica, in 2015 16 million? Same numbers: refugees or internally displaced in Africaitself (So: togetherthat is 3% of allAfricans. 97% is neither a crosscontinent-migrant nor a refugee-migrant). However: manymigratedwithintheircountries or toneighboringcountries. http://www.voanews.com/MediaAssets2/projects/AK/fromAfrica10.jpg (2012 Voice of America).

  21. Anddon’tforget: Part of thosemigrants are indeed refugees! But certainlynotall! Registred ‘boatrefugees’ whocrossedtheMediterranianbetweenJanuaryandOctober 2015 (Volkskrant 11 11 2015, p. 6) x1000 Eritrea 38 Nigeria 20 Somalia 17 Sudan 9 Gambia 7 Senegal 5 Photo: http://cache.boston.com/universal/site_graphics/blogs/bigpicture/africa_01_23/a04_16975333.jpg

  22. There is enormousmobilitywithinAfrica. MOBILITY IS THE NORM, NOT STABILITY Dietz & Veldhuizen, 2004 Impact of Climate Change in Drylands

  23. Canyou stop migrantswho want tocometo Europe? Hein de Haas: notverylikely on the long run. Migration is the outcome of: Migration aspirations + migrationcapabilities Low income + increasing aspiration = anger and frustration, but normally low migration, except push migration forced by war, disasters and climate change. Higher income and better prospects = more capacity to migrate, to nearby cities but also to far away areas that are regarded as attractive and promising benefits>costs. So: also to Europe.

  24. Oxford migrationspecialists: economicgrowth = migrationgrowth; more outmigrationthaninmigrationuntilabout 5000€/capita Paul Collier: “The relationship between income and propensity to migrate is like an inverted U. The poorest would like to migrate but can’t afford it, the richest can afford it but wouldn’t gain much. It is those in the middle that have both the incentive and the means”. Paul Collier, 2013, Exodus: Immigration and Multiculturalism in the 21st Century. http://www.heindehaas.com/Publications/Hein%20de%20Haas%20-%20Migration%20transitions%20-%20WP%2024.pdf

  25. Development = more mobility = more outmigration and more immigration, but the balance is negativeuntilcountries have reached high levels of income!!! http://heindehaas.blogspot.co.uk/2011/05/development-leads-to-more-migration.html

  26. And becareful: • Migration is notonly a result of aspirations for work and income. Many African youngstersmigratebecause of education! • And young people also migrate because they want adventure! They want to create a distance between them and their (grand)parents and local norms and values. They want to explore • Migration is entrepreneurship!

  27. Should Europe preparing itselfformassivemigrationfromAfrica? I thinkitshould. 50 million € from Minister Ploumentocreatework in Africaitselfhelps, but onlyveryveryverylittle. Don’tbefooled. Don’t fool yourself. Don’tbeanostrich!

  28. What are the medium-term expectationsaboutAfrica’seconomicprospects? 1) Most leading African businesspeople are still engaged with Europe, but They become ever more focused on Africa itself And they are ever more looking to Asia for contacts and inspiration!

  29. 2)

  30. 3) Africa’s macro economy in 2015 Africa’s Exports, total 385b$ Imports: total 547b$ InternalAfrica: 68 67 Europe: 149 (EU: 136) 190 (EU 169) Asia: 124 (China: 47) 234 (China 104) America: 37 (NAFTA: 26) 49 (NAFTA: 32) Oceania: 2 4 Composition: Mineralfuels: 171 Mineralfuels: 77 Otherminerals: 65 Iron and steel, plastics, chemicals: 60 Coffee, tea, cocoa, tobacco: 17 Cereals: 21 Other food: 18 Fruits, vegetables, edibleoil: 17 Machinery, electricalgoods, 108 Fish, meat: 7; Wood: 3 Pharmaandopticals: 24 Clothing: 9 Clothing: 6 Machines, vehicles, plastics, etc: 40 Total: 385 Total: 548

  31. 4)

  32. My prediction: • Deglobalisation; greaterprotection in USA, UK and EU • Africawillbecomebattleground of competingblocks • Chinese firmswill ever more establish branches in Africa: rapidindustrialisation of Africa, making use of cheap, andeagrelabour • Weakening (or even the end of) the Washington Consensus: Africa no longerpreventedfromprotectingits manufacturing industryandits home market • SoalsoAfricanstatesandcapitalistswilldevelop (agro-industries) fortheirexpanding home markets • But on a regional or even continental basis, andwithfurthergrowth of internalmigrationtothe major growthpoles: themetropoles. • In Africa’speriphery: marginalisation, upheavalsandconflicts or even anarchy, unlesssolar, wind andhydro-energy will change thoseareas in cash cows (servingdemandfromAfricaandthe rest of theworld?), wherelocalpopulationswill get part of therewards. • Morocco will lead this development. • But elsewhere: explosivesituationswhere ‘ever-lasting crisis’ plus anangryyouth means revolutionandoutmigration, alsoto Europe. • Let’s look at thelikelycandidateforthe first explosion.

  33. EGYPT: Canary in the Coalmine?????? http://www.prb.org/images08/patterns-of-fertility.gif

  34. Duringthe time of thepharaos Egypt had 3 millioninhabitants In 1900: 10 million 2014: 87 million In 2025: 100 million? In 2050: 150 million? In 2100???

  35. Egypt’scropland is 2.9 % of itssurface, almostallirrigatedby Nile waters ha/capita 2011: EU 0.21, USA 0.51. Egypt 0.036 ha

  36. Egypt currently IMPORTS >50% of its FOOD NEEDS How diditpayforthat deficit food import? Oil & Gas export Tourism Remittances Aid Cotton http://media-cdn.tripadvisor.com/media/photo-s/03/9b/2e/10/sharm-el-sheikh.jpg http://www.financialmail.co.za/incoming/2015/02/25/cairo-egypt-libya-islamic-state/ALTERNATES/crop_680x417/Cairo+Egypt+Libya+Islamic+State

  37. 2010-2015: Oil: -- Tourism: -- Remittances: -- Cotton: notmuch Aid???? http://www.bloomberg.com/quicktake/content/uploads/sites/2/2015/04/EgyptAidSub.png

  38. Andwhere does theimported food comefrom??? Current food deficit and food surplus countries

  39. Andifyou talk about food youneedto talk aboutclimate change…..

  40. Whatwillprobably happen in theworld’s food surplus areas? RegionalisedClimate change (rainfall) predictions. Look at: USA and Canada Eastern South America Australia andsouth-eastAsia France, Ukraine and Kazachstan Also look at Russia AndwhataboutAfrica???? e.g. the Nile Basin? Andwhere in Africawilldroughts NOT become a problem??? „Drought under global warming“ Augio Dai, 2012

  41. Silverlining ups-and-downs; theworld market price of silver as a metaphoreformy views on Africa…… Courtesy: theidea of thislecture was born duringan EADI conference in Olomouc in 2015 and I owesome of theideasand pictures to speakers at that conference http://goldsilverworlds.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/silver_price_sp500_2000_2015.jpg

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