Isagani R Serrano

1. Sustainable agriculture and climate changePresentation at the CBCP-NASSA Sustainable Agriculture Farmers’ Assembly, 19 May 2008, NASSA SA Learning Laboratory and Demonstration Farm, Misereor Village, BgyBalaring, General Natividad, Nueva Ecija Isagani R Serrano Acting President, Philippine Rural Reconstruction Movement (PRRM) and Co-convenor of Go Organic! Philippines, Social Watch Philippines, and Philippine Network on Climate Change

2. Agriculture’s responsibility in the changing climate • 12 percent of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, according the Interagency Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Does not include deforestation which accounts for about 18 percent. • Between 16 and 30 percent, if you ask Greenpeace. • In the Philippines, a basically agrarian economy, agriculture’s share in GHG emissions is 33 percent, including land use change and forestry (LULUCF). • A full-cycle assessment of agriculture may reveal a larger carbon footprint overall.

3. Contrasting scenarios of UNFCCC-IPCC translated for agriculture • From more-of-the-same or business-as-usual (BAU) scenario human action may focus on economic (A) or environmental (B); and global (1) or regional (2). So from this you get four storylines and several combinations: e.g. A1 is economic/global; B1 environmental/global; A2 economic/regional; B2 environmental/regional. • UNFCCC/IPCC ends up with 40 such scenarios and timelines of hundred years which may be meaningless if you’re worried about what CC has in store for you tomorrow. • What if you extend this modeling down to country and sub-country levels? Variations can be mindbending as you go local and implications and uncertainties for agriculture and food systems even much more complex and unimaginable.

4. Range of climate stabilization • Globalwarming (GW) predictions vary from 0.5 to 4 degrees Centigrade. • Climate stabilization levels expressed in parts per million (ppm) of carbon concentration in the air are 350 ppm, 450 ppm, 550ppm and 650 ppm. • Safety level we’re advised NEVER to cross---2 degrees Centigrade. • Which means the deeper we cut on our emissions---our carbon footprint---the safer it will be for us.

5. Contrasting scenarios for agriculture • Agriculture-as-usual (AAU)---modern, industrial, corporate-led and marginalizing for small farmers; Green Revolution/genetic modification (GR/GM) oriented; global trading and longer food mile; natural resource depletion and environmental pollution; high external input and energy-intensive; larger carbon footprint. • Sustainable agriculture (SA)---organic, local, resource-regenerating; bias for small farmers; local food systems and shorter food miles; oriented to social and environmental justice and sustainable development.

6. How might it be if BAU and AAU scenarios continue?

7. CC disturbs the water cycle • Water cycle---how water moves from Earth’s surface to the atmosphere and back to the surface again through evaporation (transpiration), condensation, and precipitation (rain). • But water is fixed quantity (75% of Earth’s surface 97% of it salty and only 3% fresh) and doesn’t go anywhere outside of our ecosphere. So why worry? If short of freshwater there’s the ocean full of it, desalinate and you get more than enough to irrigate your farms and fill all swimming pools. Really? • It’s not quantity we should worry about but the physical states (solid, liquid, gas) and distribution of water that will change with climate change. Global warming melts the ice fields, warms the oceans, dries or heats up whatever it hits and brings us extreme weather events like violent storms, floods, and droughts that affect water condition and farming everywhere.

8. CC disturbs the carbon cycle • Carbon cycle---how carbon molecules move between the living (biotic) and nonliving (abiotic) world. • More CO2 emissions more CO2 fertilization? • But gains in CO2 fertilization may be offset by hot and rising temperatures.

9. CC disturbs the nitrogen cycle • Nitrogen cycle---how nitrogen moves from the atmosphere to the soil, to living organisms, and then back to the atmosphere. • Like water, nitrogen is fixed quantity (78 % of the air). More bad weather, more lightning that fixes nitrogen in the soil. So more nitrogen fertilization? Who knows.

10. Climate justice principle • UNFCCC Art. 3.1 – countries should act “on the basis of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities” • Annex I Parties or developed countries who polluted the most are mainly responsible for mitigation and have a special obligation to transfer money and clean technology to Non-Annex I Parties or developing countries who contributed less but are deemed to suffer more from the consequences of climate change.

11. Climate justice principle in agriculture • Agriculture is not just about growing food. It’s also about social and environmental justice. • Industrial agriculture/factory farming accounts for much of the depletion of natural resources and pollution of the environment; • SA regenerates resources, cleans up poisoned water, soil, and air; in contrast to highly-centralized industrial agriculture, SA is more decentralized and empowering to small farmers and local communities.

12. Sustainable agriculture can feed the world • Since the 1960s, the prevailing wisdom has been that only Green Revolution can save the world from hunger. • The Hunger Project of 1980 aimed to end world hunger by 2000. • Today, close to a billion people still suffer from hunger. • The International Assessment of Agricultural Science and Technology for Development (IAASTD 2000) admitted to the shortcomings of GR technology and recognized the critical role of indigenous knowledge and sustainable agriculture in attaining food security. • Transition worries, like possible drop in production, could be offset through, say, reduction in costs of production and increased incomes for farmers and change in eating habits and lifestyles (eg, from ‘fast food’ to ‘slow food’). • Carbon-intensive chemical agriculture is a dead end. The future is organic.

13. How it’s been since 1960s, or farther back in time Pathway to the current conception of modern agriculture

14. Sustainable agriculture • A farming culture or a whole system---a philosophy, set of principles, knowledge, science & technology (KST), using diverse approaches---that >regenerates natural resources and protects the environment; >is economically viable; >empowers small farmers and promotes common good; and >is grounded on holistic science.

15. The complex integrated world of SA(short of Steiner’s biodynamic farming universe)

16. SA and CC mitigation • Sustainable agriculture has a comparatively smaller carbon footprint. • SA helps reduce GHG emissions (eg, avoidance/withdrawal of synthetic chemical inputs). • SA helps capture, store and utilize carbon. • SA will restore the humus—the foundation of farming. • SA rehabilitates depleted resources and detoxifies poisoned land, water and air. • SA shortens the food mile: food is produced as close as possible to where it’s consumed. • SA recycles wastes. • SA doubles as carbon sink and natural carbon factory. • With its many plusses for both mitigation and adaptation, and hardly any downsides, SA should be a “no regrets” option.

17. SA and CC adaptation • Restoring the humus for better growth of plants and microorganisms, water retention, reducing soil erosion and degradation, and carbon capture. • Restoring farm biodiversity (eg. crop diversification) to reduce effects of crop failure in extreme weather events. • In SA, small farmers are ‘king’ and ‘queen’. • With SA, communities can adjust better to CC as their farms become more resilient.

18. SA and REDD • SA cannot prosper without reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD) which accounts for about 18 % of GHG emissions. Forests are the farms’ headlands. • SA includes agro-forestry and watershed protection; improvement of soil and water quality; and sustainable livelihoods for forest communities and indigenous peoples. • So-called ‘net green’, based on monoculture industrial tree plantation, is inconsistent with SA and sustainable forestry.

19. SA and finance and technology transfer • SA and organic farmers deserve to be compensated for doing a great job for securing our food system and building a zero-waste society for all of us. • SA knowledge, science and technology (KST) is being freely shared around the world and undergoing continuous improvement. This should be duly credited as a bottom-up contribution in climate talks and negotiations.

20. In conclusion • Even with the best knowledge, we do not know exactly how nature will behave. But we do know humanity had done itself and nature a great injustice, and we know what needs to change. • SA is doing justice to society and our environment. It’s one major pathway to sustainable development.