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Severe Weather Briefing 11/21/2011 srh.noaa/shv/briefing

Severe Weather Briefing 11/21/2011 www.srh.noaa.gov/shv/briefing. Keith Stellman Warning Coordination Meteorologist. National Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana. Overview. This afternoon through tonight: Setup: Complicated Forecast!

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Severe Weather Briefing 11/21/2011 srh.noaa/shv/briefing

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  1. Severe Weather Briefing11/21/2011www.srh.noaa.gov/shv/briefing Keith Stellman Warning Coordination Meteorologist National Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana

  2. Overview This afternoon through tonight: Setup: Complicated Forecast! Surface front with cold air “oozing” south and east has made it a little further east than anticipated Most of the good forcing is forecast to be in the area behind the front Upper level system drawing near should pull the front back to the northwest during the day. Key in determining severe weather threat type. Impacts Hail(elevated supercells behind the front) Damaging Winds (ahead of the front and later tonight as the upper level system catches up) Tornadoes(lesser threat today…increases a bit overnight/tomorrow) National Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana

  3. Currently Location of Front at 8:30 AM National Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana

  4. Radar @ 900 • Note the storms developing north of the front • Expect most of the activity today to remain north of the front

  5. Models Vary on Front location today • Noon Forecast (NAM) • Front showing signs of backing up to the northwest

  6. Forecast Front Position @ 6 PM • 6 PM Forecast (NAM) • Front edging northwest

  7. Forecast Front Position @ Midnight • 12 AM Forecast (NAM) • Front almost out of the area

  8. SPC slight risk area • Note: Most of the risk area is behind the front

  9. Tornado Threat • Best chances exist within a narrow corridor ahead of the front • Late Monday/Tuesday

  10. Damaging Wind • Best chances exist within a narrow along and ahead of the front • Late Monday/Tuesday

  11. Hail • Most likely with elevated supercells behind the front • Monday and Tuesday

  12. Tuesday Threat • Front on the move • Wind Shear and Instability line up ahead of the front • Slight Risk area for storms primarily 11 AM and after SPC slight risk area • Greatest Risk of Severe

  13. Computer Model Rainfall Forecast (GFS) • Heaviest behind the front • I-30 corridor • Less in areas south and east of the front

  14. Computer Model #2 Rainfall Forecast (NAM) • Heaviest behind the front • I-30 corridor • Lesser total amounts

  15. Official Rainfall Forecast (Monday/Tuesday) 2.50” 2.00” 1.50” 1.00”

  16. Summary This afternoon into tonight: Complicated forecast due to surface front Warm air riding over top of surface front…allowing storms to develop north of front Reduces overall tornado threat Increases hail threat Greatest threats for tonight: Hail Damaging winds Tornadoes **If the front can back up further…tornado threat increases across NE Texas/SW Arkansas late today Tuesday Damaging Wind and tornado threat increases Especially Eastern and Central LA during the afternoon National Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana

  17. NEXT CONFERENCE CALL: Wednesday 11/23 @ 10 AM www.srh.noaa.gov/shv/briefing National Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana

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