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Expect the Unexpected: Salmon, Water, and Wind

Expect the Unexpected: Salmon, Water, and Wind. Mark R. Abbott College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences Oregon State University. Coastal Upwelling. Equatorward Winds. Winds push surface water offshore. Cold, deep water moves to surface, bringing nutrients.

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Expect the Unexpected: Salmon, Water, and Wind

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  1. Expect the Unexpected:Salmon, Water, and Wind Mark R. Abbott College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences Oregon State University

  2. Coastal Upwelling Equatorward Winds Winds push surface water offshore Cold, deep water moves to surface, bringing nutrients

  3. Conditions Leading to Low Oxygen Zones

  4. Equatorward, Upwelling favorable Interannual variability in wind stress Cumulative wind stress since Spring Transition Barth et al. (2007)

  5. PISCO Late, weak upwelling in 2005 led to low nutrients and chlorophyll long-term average Barth et al. (2007)

  6. Interannual variability – Supercharged upwelling of 2006 Equatorward, Upwelling favorable Cumulative wind stress since Spring Transition 2005 2006 Two extremes in two years ! Barth/Pierce (OSU)

  7. “This is a bleak year.” - NOAA

  8. “Some of the highest numbers we’ve ever seen” - NOAA

  9. “It’s a mystery. This is nothing like what was predicted.” - NOAA

  10. Historic Runs of Salmon in the Columbia River

  11. Native American Gillnetters

  12. John Day Dam

  13. Fish Ladder at John Day Dam

  14. Irrigation in Hermiston

  15. Wind Farm in the Gorge

  16. Potential Wind Resources in the Columbia Basin

  17. Coastal Ocean Observing

  18. Data Assimilation System, Oregon Shelf, Summer 2001 Data Assimilation: Model + Data = Optimized Solution (3D+Time)

  19. What types of IT do We Need? • Data streams • Management, provenance • Knowledge extraction • Seeking patterns and relationships • Computation • Scenarios, real-time predictions • Communication • Diverse users – and two-way communications • Semantics and ontologies • Presentation and visualization • Distributed and mobile

  20. Climate Change and Public Policy • Regard people as a “keystone species,” not just extracting ecosystem services • Require combination of social and ecological systems • Respond to new information and understanding • Combination of adaptation and mitigation • Integrated and inclusive approaches to policy formulation and refinement

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