GULF SEISMIC FORUM 2005

1. GULF SEISMIC FORUM 2005 SEISMOLOGY AND EARTHQUAKE STUDIES IN THE EASTERN ARABIAN PLATE REGION 20-23 February 2005 11-14 Muharram, 1426 UAE UNIVERSITY,AL-AIN ,UAE

2. A COOPERATIVE PROGRAM ON THE ARABIAN SUBCONTINENT SEISMICITY AND SEISMIC HAZARD Sahil A. Alsinawi Middle East Seismological Forum(M.E.S.F) http://www.meseisforum.net salsinawi@verizon.net

3. A COOPERATIVE PROGRAM IS SUGGESTED TO SERVE SEISMOLOGICAL MONITORING,SEISMIC RISK, EARTHQUAKE CODE DEVELOMENT AND OTHER NATURAL HAZARD ACTIVITIES IN THE ARABIAN SUBCONTINENT,THE RED SEA,THE GULF OF ADEN,THE GULF OF OMAN AND THE ARABIAN GULF REGIONS

4. What Do we have at our Hands • We got • Seismicity Maps • Hazard Maps • Staions Networking in the region • We Try Hard to make the Maximum use of the available resources to improve on the basic material available to the users.

6. The state of earthquake monitoring, earthquake catalogues, seismic waveform archives, emergency response measures, training, research and human resources development should be addressed collectively to streamline the various activities in the region that needs a unified outlook through a well planned and efficient cooperative scheme .The MESF website could serve as the media platform to facilitate the various discussions to outline the fundamental goals, operational concepts, strategic plans and actions required. The help and support of the ongoing programs and organizations are essential to Secure balanced and well coordinated execution.

9. Let us review The Main Earthquake Science related meetings & seminarsorganized in The Arab Region in the last three decades

10. ARAB SEISMOLOGICAL SEMINARS The First Seminar /Baghdad The Second Seminar/ Rabat The Third Seminar/ Riyadh The Fourth Seminar / Sana’a / Dhamar ! The Fifth Seminar, Where and When ?

11. The First Arab Seismological SeminarBaghdad, December 18-20 1978 Organized by The Iraqi Seismological Unit/The Iraqi Foundation of Scientific Research (FSR) Attended by representatives of Unesco, ISC, Union of Arab Universities, Arab Geologists Union and delegates from Jordan, UAE, Algeria, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Somalia, Iraq, Palestine,KuwaitLibya, Egypt& Iraq. Adopted 25 resolutions covering survey of seismological facilities, training and ,proposed Arab seismic network, establishing center for data analysis & establishing a follow up committee to prepare for the second seminar. Produced a final document distributed world wide

12. THE SECOND ARAB SEISMOLOGICAL SEMINARRabat, October 28-30 1981 • Organized by the Moroccan center of Scientific Research Planning ,Rabat. • Attended by Unesco, Alecso, Arab Fund for Social &Economic Development, ISC,UN- Geneva ,Union of Arab Scientific Research Centers and Union of Arab Geologists . • Participants were from France, Italy, Australia, Federal Germany, UK,US ,Yugoslavia, Jordan, Bahrain, Tunisia, Algeria, Saudi Arabia ,Iraq, Palestine, Qatar, Kuwait & Morocco. • Ten major recommendations were adopted ,mainly the proposal to launch the PAMERAR project with the support of the Unesco, Arab Fund and Islamic Bank for Development . • A follow up committee was formed to prepare for the third seminar.

13. THE THIRD ARAB SEISMOLOGICAL SEMINAR Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, March 8-10,1986 • Organized by King Abdul Aziz City of Science & Technology • Attended by Union of Arab Scientific Research Council Union, King Saudi University, Arab Fund for Economic and Social development ,& Alecso • Attended by representatives from Jordan, Algeria, Syria, Somalia, Iraq,Kuwait,Egypt,Morocco,Yemen Arab republic, Democratic Yemen & Saudi Arabia . • Reemphasizing the recommendations of the 1st and 2nd seminars, thirteen recommendations were adopted concerning the establishment of a unified Data center and a unified Arab seismic network. • A recommendation was taken to hold the next seminar during 1988.

14. The Fourth Arab Seismological Seminar Sana’a, April 23-25 1994 • This meeting was organized by The Higher Education Sector of the Yemeni Ministry of Education, The Geology Department of Sana’a University, Union of Arab Research Councils & The Arab Geologists Union .The meeting was postponed . • The trend in the Seminar announcement was more comprehensive to include all natural hazards • A meeting was organized at Dhamar University in Yemen in 1999 to replace the same activity. No final communiqué or follow up of this meeting is available to the author of this presentation

15. THE “FIFTH” ARAB SEISMOLOGICAL SEMINARLocation?, Date?, Sponsors ? • A new and genuine momentum is needed to revive this activity. ************************************** HOWEVER • Other meetings took place in • the region during the last decade

16. What characterized the previous meetings • Were they focused • Any continuity in the meetings, any follow up to the resolutions and recommendations made • Did we really need those meetings • Which is more effective National and Regional meetings or International meetings • What will this meeting add to our objectives on the local , national and international level

17. THE PAMERAR PROJECTProgramme for Assessment and Mitigation of Earthquake Risk in the Arab RegionBackground One of the most fatal earthquakes in the 20th century was the 1980 earthquake in El- Asnam (Shlif) which destroyed 80% of the city, killed or injured around 10.000 people and rendered 300,000 people homeless. More than US$4 billion was the estimated damage to houses and infrastructures, aside from extensive damage to valuable archeological sites and to the countryside. In the aftermath of this devastating quake, UNESCO was invited by the Arab Fund for Economic and Social Development (AFSED) and the Islamic Bank to assess the requirements of ten Arab countries and submit proposals for reducing earthquake risk. In 1983, the Programme for Assessment and Mitigation of Earthquake Risk in the Arab Region (PAMERAR) was launched, funded by an overall loan of US$21 million from AFSED to Algeria, Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, Syria, Tunisia ,Iraq and Yemen .

18. The UNESCO PAMERAR TEAMR. Adams, S. Alsinawi, N. Ambraseys, M. Barazangi,H. Benallou, D. BenSari, F. De Alb, I. Idriss, Y. Petrovski, B. Rouhban, V. Karnik & K. Abu Bakir

19. Objectives and achievements of PAMERAR Based on the preliminary evaluation carried out, the objectives of PAMERAR, on a national basis, are to establish or reinforce seismic and strong motion networks, promote the formulation of aseismic building codes and provide trainingseismology, earthquake engineering and civil defense As a result of PAMERAR, a number of Arab countries have substantially improved their human and physical capabilities in earthquake risk reduction. Training courses in seismology, earthquake engineering and civil defense were conducted to develop skills, and seismic and strong motion networks of approximately 300 instruments have been installed, i.e. in Morocco, Tunisia, Iraq, Yemen, Jordan, Syria and Egypt, as well as equipment for civil defense. Earthquake resistant building codes have been set up in Algeria, Jordan, Morocco and Tunisia. DO WE NEED TO LAUNCH PAMERAR II

20. The Role of UNESCO in PAMERARUNESCO implements the training and technical assistance components of the PAMERAR national projects in Morocco, Tunisia and Syria. More than 3000 days/men of training have been provided for scientists, engineers and technicians since the start of the programme, and more than 35 missions of technical assistance have been organized. UNESCO has been the catalyst for the participation of Arab states in international programmes

21. Five-Point RELEMR Action Plan to Reduce Earthquake Losses • 1. Seismotectonic framework studies using geological, geophysical, geodetic, seismological, archaeological and historical techniques to improve understanding of the cause and nature of seismicity. • 2. Earthquake monitoring using modern seismograph networks and strong motion instrument arrays to determine earthquake parameters and characteristics. • 3. Assessment of earthquake hazards to determine locations, recurrence intervals, and effects of future earthquakes • 4. Assessment of earthquake risks to evaluate potential losses • 5. Implementation of earthquake risk reduction measures to reduce vulnerabilities and losses. .

22. RELEMRSEMINAR ONEARTHQUAKE HAZARDS OF THE EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN REGION • Based on the PAMERAR programme, UNESCO and the U.S. Geological Survey launched in 1993 the Reducing Earthquake Losses in the Mediterranean Region (RELEMR) programme with the purpose of assessing, evaluating and reducing expected earthquake losses in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR). RELEMR is carried out with the European Mediterranean Seismic Centre (EMSC) and is associated with the Council of Europe through the Open Partial Agreement for Major Hazard. The participating countries in the programme are Cyprus, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, West Bank and Gaza Strip, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Turkey and Yemen. Algeria, Greece, Mauritania, Morocco, Oman and Tunisia are also involved in some RELEMR activities. • One of the recent accomplishments of the RELEMR programme was the compilation of the regional seismic hazard map which was carried out under the Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Programme (GSHAP) umbrella (http://seismo.ethz.ch/GSHAP).

23. ACTIVITIES of RELEMR1993-2000The followings activities took place as initiatives of the Program for Reducing Earthquake Losses in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (RELEMR) organized by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) and UNESCO in co-operation with EMR, European and US earth sciences organizations: Seminar on Earthquakes Hazards of the Eastern Mediterranean Region, Cairo, Egypt, 16-21 October 1993 Workshop on Earthquake Hazards in the Gulf of Aqaba Region, Taba, Egypt, 17-20 April 1994Workshop on seismic network data exchange and post-earthquake investigations, Nicosia, Cyprus, 25-28 April 1994Executive briefing on the Programme for Reduction of Earthquake Losses in the Eastern Mediterranean Region, Paris, France, 10-11 May 1995Workshop on Seismic Monitoring in the Eastern Mediterranean Region - Meeting on the Joint Observation Period - I , Nicosia, Cyprus, 15-19 May 1995Training Course on Seismology and Earthquake Engineering , Advanced Procedures for Hazard and Risk Assessments, Istanbul, Turkey, 2 weeks, November 1995Second Regional Workshop on the Seismicity of the Gulf of Aqaba Region, Amman, Jordan, 3-5 June 1996Workshop on Seismic Monitoring in the Eastern Mediterranean Region. Joint Seismic Observing Period – II, Nicosia, Cyprus, 8-11 December 1996International Workshop on Active Faults and Seismicity of the Gulf of Aqaba, Nicosia, Cyprus, 26-31 October 1997Regional Workshop on Magnitude Calibration in the Eastern Mediterranean Region, Amman, Jordan, 4-7 May 1998.Planning Workshop on Magnitude Calibration and GSHAP Seismic Hazard Map and Workshop on Seismic Hazards and magnitude calibration in the Easter Mediterranean Region, Istanbul, Turkey, 14-17 October 1998Workshop on Seismic Hazards in the Mediterranean Region and the Operation of CTBT Auxiliary Seismic Stations, Nicosia, Cyprus, 3-7 May 1999. Intensive training course on seismic data analysis and Workshop on Seismic Calibration in the Eastern Mediterranean Region, Istanbul, Turkey, 21 May-1 June 2000.

24. ALMASHRIQ GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH GROUP A.G.R.G. The group is initiated to carry out the following tasks: Create awareness of the available geophysical research activities conducted on the Almashriq Region. Conduct coordinated research and make available publications contributing to an understanding of the internal structure and evolution of Almashriq region including, but not limited to, the following Seismicity (paleoseismology, observational seismology and macro, micro and induced seismicity studies), seismotectonics and seismic hazard analyses of Almashriq region. Geodynamics and stress distribution of the Arabian Subcontinent (defining the Arabian Plate) with special emphasis on the Zagros Thrust zone, the Dead Sea Transform, the Red Sea Divergence, the Gulf of Aden and the Afar Triple Junction. Promote research in the fields of Applied and Environmental geophysics, which emphasises the application of high-resolution geophysical and data modelling techniques to engineering and environmental problems utilizing the various data from the available geophysical techniques. Apply advanced geophysical data analysis and modelling techniques to identify environmental hazards and evaluate areas selected for the establishment of critical structures. Coordinate and utilize the available National Geophysical Observatories data of the Region toestablish a unified geophysical database on the geophysics of Almashriq region. A coordinating committee is to be established to organize the flow of proposals, streamlining of data collection and analysis, final text writing and eventual publications. Herein, we're extending an invitation to all the Geophysicists of Almashriq Region to join the A.G.R.G. and contribute to the above listed tasks. Specific Research Proposals must be submitted with the Desire to Join the Research Group. THE AGRG IS coordinated by Sahil Alsinawi & Mazin Al Salim

25. THE GULF FORUM EPISODES • The First Forum/Al Sharjah ,UAE 2004 • The PRESENT Second Form/Al Ain,UAE 2005 • A possible Forum 3 / at ? , 200? • WHAT IS NEXT

26. HOW AND WHEN WILL THE REGION’S INSTITUTIONS TAKE THE INITIATIVE TO ORGANIZE & FUND ACTIVITIES ON EARTHQUAKES & OTHERNATURAL HAZARDS

27. THEPRESENCE OR ABSENCE OF SCIENCE STRATEGIES AND SCIENCE POLICIES IS TO BE EMPHASIZED AS AN IMPORTANT FACTOR IN PROMOTING THE CONTINUITY AND DEVELOPMENT OF ANY INSTITUNIZED SCIENTIFIC ACTIVITY

28. We are seeking a new Institution without walls that would • Help upgrade National centers to integrate and establish regional coordination within the region and links to the international arena. • Create public awareness • Organize post earthquake field investigations and evaluation task force • Conduct the needed raining and technical management • The countries of Somalia, Eritrea, Sudan and Djibouti should be incorporated in the program

29. THERE IS A NEED FOR A PERMANENT SECRETARIAT ON THE REGIONAL LEVEL TO CARRY THE FOLLOWING TASKS • The cooperative program needs an executive council • Donor Organizationsto secure funding for sustainability • Conduct and streamline cooperative research plans between the scientists of the region • Facilitate Instrumentation exchange and maintenance • Provide software & Documentation • Conduct training sessions & Organize regional workshops and conferences • Provide Consultancy services to government and private sectors • Publishing and disseminating research result to the public and private sectors in the region for possible adaptation and implementation

30. Middle East Seismological Forum (MESF)http://www.meseisforum.netMESF is planning to organize its 1st seismic workshop in Beirut, during late 2005 or early 2006 Tsunamis in the MediterraneanAn organizing committee is formed headed by MESF Board Member Rami Al Khouryramy.elkhoury@rafikelkhoury.com