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ECONONOMIC SUMMIT SUMMARY

ECONONOMIC SUMMIT SUMMARY. A Compilation of information presented at the January 14, 2008 Economic Summit in St. George. 1990 to 2000 Population Growth by County. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 to 2007 Population Growth by Count y.

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ECONONOMIC SUMMIT SUMMARY

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  1. ECONONOMIC SUMMITSUMMARY A Compilation of information presented at the January 14, 2008 Economic Summit in St. George

  2. 1990 to 2000 Population Growth by County Source: U.S. Census Bureau.

  3. 2000 to 2007 Population Growth by County Source: Utah Population Estimates Committee; Utah Governor’s Office of Planning and Budget.

  4. Population Change 2007-2008 In 2007, Washington County was the second-fastest growing county in Utah. Source: Utah Population Estimates Committee.

  5. Washington County Dwelling Unit Permits Lowest number since 1989. . . *Forecast based on January-November data. Source: U of U; Utah Bureau of Economic and Business Research.

  6. Annual Change in Washington County New Dwelling Unit Permits *January-November 2007 compared to January-November 2008. Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services.

  7. 2007-2008* Washington County Change in Permitted New Dwelling Units by Community *January-November. Source: Utah Bureau of Business and Economic Research.

  8. Change in Number of Washington County Homes Sold Inventory of homes for sale is slowly shrinking *Third Qtr 2008 compared to Third Qtr 2007. Source: Utah Association of Realtors.

  9. Foreclosure Rate Estimates; June 2008 3.50% or higher Rich 0.4% Cache 1.5% 3.00% to 3.49% Box Elder 2.5% 2.00% to 2.99% 1.00% to 1.99% Weber 3.3% Less than 1.00% Morgan 1.3% Davis 2.2% Summit 0.9% Daggett 1.7% Salt Lake 2.8% Tooele 3.7% Wasatch 2.2% Duchesne 3.0% Uintah 3.5% Utah 2.5% Juab 3.5% Carbon 3.1% Sanpete 3.5% Emery 2.7% Millard 3.0% Grand 1.5% Sevier 2.7% Beaver 3.3% Piute 1.1% Wayne 0.5% Iron 2.6% Garfield 3.0% Source: U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. San Juan 3.4% Kane 1.6% Washington 3.5%

  10. Washington County Change in Gross Taxable Sales Big declines in building/garden, furniture and auto sales. Source: Utah State Tax Commission.

  11. Washington County Change in Car/Light Truck Sales Source: Utah State Tax Commission.

  12. Annual Unemployment Rates U.S Utah Washington Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

  13. Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rates Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services.

  14. Year-Over Change in Nonfarm Jobs Washington County Utah United States Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

  15. Year-Over Change in Nonfarm Jobs Washington County Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services.

  16. Washington Industry Year-Over Job ChangeSeptember 2007 Source: Utah Dept of Workforce Services.

  17. Washington Industry Year-Over Job ChangeSeptember 2008 Down 3,200 jobs total Source: Utah Dept of Workforce Services.

  18. Percent Change in Washington County Nonfarm Jobs by Industry; September 2007 – September 2008 Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services.

  19. Migration of Washington County Residents Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey.

  20. Washington County Net Migration Source: Utah Population Estimates Committee.

  21. My Not-So-Secret Formula • Year-Over Percent Change in Nonfarm Jobs. • “Year-over” change between one month and the same month the previous year. (March 2008 employment compared to March 2007 employment). • Employment data is current and some of the best data around. • It’s easy. • Available for small areas. • Not what the Bureau of Labor publishes in their press release—not seasonally adjusted.

  22. Most Importantly. . . • It works! • Nationally, when year-over growth rates trend down and eventually result in job loss, there has always a recession as defined by NBER.

  23. U.S. Year-Over Change in Nonfarm Jobs Recessionary period as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

  24. U.S. Year-Over Change in Nonfarm Jobs Recessionary period as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

  25. U.S. Year-Over Change in Nonfarm Jobs Recessionary period as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

  26. U.S. Year-Over Change in Nonfarm Jobs Recessionary period as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

  27. U.S. Unemployment Rates Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

  28. Washington County New Hires Four-Qtr Moving Average Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Local Employment Dynamics Program.

  29. U.S. Annual Percent Change in Real GDP * Fourth Qtr 2007-Third Qtr 2008 compared to the previous four quarters. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

  30. U.S. Quarterly Percent Change in Real GDP Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

  31. Gray Skies Ahead Anyway you view it, Utah’s economy will face some challenges during the first part of 2009. After losing 15,000 jobs during the past year, the state’s construction industry will still be hurting as a sluggish economy has delayed, or even halted, major development projects. And with acres of commercial real estate sitting vacant and dozens of development sites abandoned, contractors, developers and all those associated with the real estate market will have definite obstacles to overcome. Utah Business MagazineDecember 2008

  32. Light at the Tunnels End? There are reasons to be optimistic about Utah’s 2009 economic forecast. The state’s work ethic combined with the appealing cost of doing business, affordable cost of living, strong technology and business environments, an educated workforce and growing population contribute to the recovery. However, business owners, consumers and employees need to be patient as the national market works through the financial crisis. Utah is not immune to the effects of the global economy and residents will certainly feel the pressure. But by practicing old-fashioned values, the average home owner or business owner should survive the financial quandary. Utah Business Magazine December 2008

  33. Economic Recovery! How Much Longer? We should plan on 2009 being a pretty difficult year for the full year. It’s possible at sometime in the second half of the year that the stock market could begin to improve. But in terms of the underlying economy it is going to take at least a year before we see some type of improvement. I don’t think unemployment rates will start coming down until 2010. I would like to hope that we make serious progress in the housing area in 2009. That will take getting more homes sold and reducing foreclosures. There’s probably just no way to get this problem solved without somebody or some segment somewhere eating some of the loss in terms of reducing the principal. There’s got to be some reduction in principal to stabilize the situation. Kelly Matthews – Wells Fargo Bank Salt Lake REALTOR Magazine – 12/08

  34. In Washington County. . . Job losses should bottom-out in 1st Qtr 2009. Higher unemployment likely in 2009. Housing market adjustment will take longer. Market correction related to U.S. recovery.

  35. Softening Effects . . . Out-migration of undocumented workers Lower prices boosts disposable income. Economic Stimulus Package; confidence. Different economy; different demographics.

  36. Cautionary Tales . . . Panic could continue to drive economy. Housing bubbles collapse slowly. Stimulus package may be timed poorly.

  37. Watch the Indicators for a turnaround!!!

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