The Black Swan: Tactical Rules for Survival in Looney Times

1. The Black Swan 44: Tactical Rules for Survival (and success) in Looney times* (*plus “the basics”) Tom Peters/03 October 2008

2. NOTE:To appreciate this presentation [and ensure that it is not a mess], you need Microsoft fonts:“Showcard Gothic,”“Ravie,”“Chiller”and“Verdana”

3. The Black Swan 44

4. The Black Swan has landed!

5. Career =1 or 2 black swans

6. “I [will] not accept the explanation of a recession negatively effecting the [new] business. There are still people traveling. We just have to get them to stay in our hotel.”—Horst Schulze, former president of Ritz Carlton, on his new luxury hotel chain, Capella, from Prestige (06.08)

7. Black Swan Tactical Rules 1. K.I.S.S. 2. Hammer on the basics. 3. Focus on us, not the competition. 4. Puzzle-solving: How to turn this into an opportunity. 5. MBWA/X. 6. MBWA/I. 7. MBWA/Vendors. 8. Waaaaay over-communicate!!!!!! (With everyone—start with your banker.)

8. MBWA

9. Black Swan Tactical Rules 9. All work is team work. 10. Transparency. 11. Work the phones. 12. Perception of fairness. 13. Share the pain. 14. Decency!!!!!!! 15. Grace!! 16. “Thank you.” 17. Control your impatience— no temper tantrums. 18. Constant attitude checks—you.

10. Work the phones!

11. "’Overcommunication never hurts. If it is something significant, I would just pick up the phone and call Ben [Bernanke]. . . . One of the things I do is I create an atmosphere where I am so direct and so open and collaborative with people I trust that it brings out the same in them.” —Hank Paulson

12. Black Swan Tactical Rules 19. Dress for success. 20. Avoid burnout/you, the team, the entire organization. 21. Re-emphasize the company values-philosophy. (Now, more than ever.) 22. Quality!!!!!! (Now, more than ever.) 23. No corner cutting. (Now, more than ever.) 24. Constant reviews/War room. 25. Celebration of small wins.

13. Black Swan Tactical Rules 26. People First/HR is King. 27. Help people with personal financial management. 28. Be generous to those who are let go—e.g. healthcare benefits. 29. Don’t over-analyze. 30. Don’t under-analyze. 31. Cuts all at once—if possible. 32. Cuts explained in great detail. 33. Quantitative calendar management—focus on “to don’ts.”

14. 100 Ways to Succeed #139: Work the Damn Phones! Treble Your MBWA!* One of my favorite quotes, from Carolyn Lamb , goes like this: “A year from now you may wish you had started today.” Yes, today many of us wish we had “wildly” “over”invested in those employee-vendor-client-community relationships when the market was heading North and there was a little slack in the system. Well, perhaps we didn’t, but, and I’m not “doing a Tony Robbins” here, it really is never too late. That is: Work the damn phones. Keep working the damn phones. Show up. Keep showing up. Call clients and suppliers, ask them how things are going, and how you can help. This is not about sales (directly), but about “showing up”—taking time from your busy affairs to offer assistance of any sort. (E.g., offer up your network: “Well, Dave [one of your key suppliers], I know Ed Simpson, over there at [one of Dave’s problem clients]; his daughter and mine are co-captains of the [name of school] soccer team; I can give him a call for you if you’d like.” Etc.) This is even more important with our employees.** “Over”inform—the rumors are invariably worse than reality. “Over”do your MBWA—managing by wandering around. Keep your enthusiasm up if it kills you—not in a dopey grin, “all is well” way, but by exhibiting energy and masking any internal doom & gloom expressions that may in fact be just beneath the surface. [**I use the formal word “employees” here, a word I ordinarily dislike. But the point is that you do have a formal hierarchal relationship with those on your payroll, and thence a formal as well as an abiding moral obligation concerning their and their families’ well-being.] *A series of ideas from tompeters.com

15. Black Swan Tactical Rules 34. Increase customer-service training. 35. In general, minimize training cuts. 36. Be(very)ware R&D cuts; R&D quick pay SWAT teams. 37. Beware such things as sales travel cuts, ad cuts. 38. “Across the board” = Dumb. 39. Is this a time to over-invest if cash is at hand? (E.g., distressed innovative start-ups?)

16. Black Swan Tactical Rules 40. Stealth work on the likes of XF communication. 41. This could last a long time— LT prep is necessary now. 42. Prepare/Be prepared for more Black Swans. 43. Excellence. (Now, more than ever.) (44. Remember all this in peacetime—Chuck Knight’s legacy.)

17. this is your life. Think upside.

18. this is your life. Think excellence.

19. The greatest dangerfor most of usis not that our aim istoo highand we miss it,but that it istoo lowand we reach it.Michelangelo

20. Tom Peters’ EXCELLENCE. ALWAYS.The Basics.03 October 2008

21. L(+21) = L(-21)

22. Leadership(21A.D.) = Leadership(21B.C.)

23. walk

24. Sunday “Drive By”:The CEO of a very successful mid-sized bank, in the Mid-west, attended a seminar of mine in Northern California in the mid-80s—but I remember the following as if it were yesterday. I’ve forgotten the specific context, but I recall him saying to me, pretty much word for word,“Tom let me tell you the definition of a good lending officer. After church on Sunday, on the way home with his family, he takes a little detour to drive by the factory he just lent money to. Doesn’t go in or any such thing, just drives by and takes a sniff.”

25. Thank you Ben & Norm, Ike , Gust, David, Mark, Muhammad, Nelson, Ben II and Delaware …

26. L(+21) = L(-21)

27. Leadership(21A.D.) = Leadership(21B.C.)

28. Give good tea!

29. “Allied commands depend on mutual confidence [and this confidence] is gained, above all through the development of friendships.” —General D.D. Eisenhower, Armchair General * (05.08)*“Perhaps his most outstanding ability [at West Point] was the ease with which he made friends and earned the trust of fellow cadets who came from widely varied backgrounds; it was a quality that would pay great dividends during his future coalition command.”

30. George Crile (Charlie Wilson’s War) on Gust Avrakotos’ strategy:“He had become something of a legend with these people who manned the underbelly of the Agency [CIA].”

31. General David Petraeus’ “White lines along the road”: “Secure and serve the population. Live among the people. Promote reconciliation. Move mounted, work dismounted; situational awareness can only be achieved by operating face-to-face, not separated by ballistic glass. Walk.*” —David Petraeus, Men’s Journal (06.08) * “I love that last one for its simplicity.” —DP

32. 3K/5M

33. 5,000 miles for a 5-minute face-to-face meeting —Mark McCormack, super-agent

34. MBWA, Grameen Style!“Conventional banks ask their clients to come to their office. It’s a terrifying place for the poor and illiterate. … The entire Grameen Bank system runs on the principle that people should not come to the bank, the bank should go to the people. … If any staff member is seen in the office, it should be taken as a violation of the rules of the Grameen Bank. … It is essential that [those setting up a new village Branch] have no office and no place to stay. The reason is to make us as different as possible from government officials.” Source: Muhammad Yunus, Banker to the Poor

35. 

36. “I am a dispenser of enthusiasm.”—Ben Zander

37. “eighty percent of success is showing up.” —Woody Allen

38. The Real World’s “Little” Rule Book Ben/tea Norm/tea DDE/make friends WFBuckley/make friends-help friends Gust/Suck down Charlie/poker pal-BOF Eddie VII/dance-flatter-mingle-learn the language Vlad/birthday party of outgroup guy’s wife CIO/finance network ERP installer/consult-“one line of code” GE Energy/make friends risk assessment GWB/put Jim on the invitation list GHWB/T-notes Hank/60 calls MarkM/5K-5M Delaware/show up Oppy/snub Lewis Strauss NM/smile -$4.3T/tin ear TP/3M, I’m sorry tp.com/Big 4-What do you think? Women/genes Banker/after church Total Bloody Mess/Can they pay back the loan?

39. walk

40. 1982

41. Excellence1982: The Bedrock “Eight Basics” 1. A Bias for Action 2. Close to the Customer 3. Autonomy and Entrepreneurship 4. Productivity Through People 5. Hands On, Value-Driven 6. Stick to the Knitting 7. Simple Form, Lean Staff 8. Simultaneous Loose-Tight Properties”

42. “Breakthrough” 82* People! Customers! Action! Values! *In Search of Excellence

43. Hard Is SoftSoft Is Hard

44. Hard Is Soft (Plans, #s)Soft Is Hard (people, customers, values, relationships))

45. Thank you ,Herb and Robert …

46. “You have to treat your employees like customers.”—Herb Kelleher, complete answer, upon being asked his “secrets to success” Source: Joe Nocera, NYT, “Parting Words of an Airline Pioneer,” on the occasion of Herb Kelleher’s retirement after 37 years at Southwest Airlines (SWA’s pilots union took out a full-page ad in USA Today thanking HK for all he had done; across the way in Dallas American Airlines’ pilots were picketing the Annual Meeting)

47. “The role of the Director is to create a space where the actors and actresses canbecome more than they’ve ever been before, more than they’ve dreamed of being.”—Robert Altman, Oscar acceptance speech

48. Thank you ,Siberia and A.I.M. …

49. Why in the World did you go to Siberia?

50. Enterprise* ** (*at its best):An emotional, vital, innovative, joyful, creative, entrepreneurial endeavor that elicits maximum concerted human potential in the wholeheartedservice of others.****Employees, Customers, Suppliers, Communities, Owners, Temporary partners