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Rational Voting

Rational Voting. POLS 4349 Dr. Brian William Smith. Office Hours. When Today 10-2 Friday 10-12 Monday 10-2 And by appointment Doyle 226B. Learning Outcomes I. Evaluate how people develop political opinions and how this impacts their political behavior.

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Rational Voting

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  1. Rational Voting POLS 4349 Dr. Brian William Smith

  2. Office Hours • When • Today 10-2 • Friday 10-12 • Monday 10-2 • And by appointment • Doyle 226B

  3. Learning Outcomes I • Evaluate how people develop political opinions and how this impacts their political behavior. • Evaluate and interpret the importance of partisanship in shaping political opinion and vote choice • Identify and describe the formal and informal institutions involved in the electoral process

  4. Readings • Downs, Anthony. An Economic Theory of Democracy. Chapter 3. • Chapter 3: Partisanship (67-72) (Flanigan)

  5. Should We Vote? The rational voter model

  6. Normative Democratic Theory • The Classical View of Voting • How We should Participate

  7. Rational Choice Theory of Voting • When Should We Vote? • Who should We Vote For?

  8. The Purpose of an Election is Simple • A mandate for the incumbent to continue their policies or • A call for the opposition to Change things

  9. Our Choices are Simple • Abstain • Vote for Our Favorite Party • Vote for Some other Party Because our Favorite Party has no Chance • Vote For a Party at Random

  10. Stay at home Why we abstain

  11. Rational Abstention • The Costs of Voting versus the benefits of voting • The costs often outweigh the benefits • The Result is many eligible citizens never vote (rational abstention)

  12. Why Abstainers are important • Parties have no idea who is going to abstain • Parties cannot ignore these people • There are enough of these people to shift the electoral balance • Their abstention often does not harm them

  13. The Problems of Abstaining • Democracy Cannot Exist • The costs of democracy are too high • The benefits are too low.

  14. Should I vote or abstain?

  15. The Rational Voting Calculus • C= Cost of participation • B= Benefit of voting • P= Probability that your vote matters • D= The civic duty term C> PB +D We Stay At Home C< PB +D We Vote

  16. Information Costs • The costs of becoming an informed voter • Learning who is running • Understanding the Differences between candidates • Information costs are especially high

  17. Time Costs • Registration • Travel • The vote itself • Ways that we have reduced these over time?

  18. The Monetary Costs of Voting • Poll Taxes- Not any more • Costs of not working • Opportunity Costs

  19. The Impact of High Cost is Low Turnout • Not all costs are born equally • Those who vote less have less political power • This prevents people from making the “wrong Decision”

  20. High Costs can deter voters, even if they have a preference

  21. Benefits, Probability of Deciding an Election, Civic Duty BP +D

  22. Probability of Deciding the Election (P Term) • How Close you believe the election to be • How Many People are expected to vote • If no one votes, democracy collapses

  23. Does the P Term Matter? • Some Say No • Examine the Cumulative Effect • We do not vote for the sake of casting the tie-breaking ballot

  24. Benefits From Voting (B Term) • Direct benefits • Policy Benefits • Desire to see one side win

  25. Civic Duty (D Term) • Democracy is the reward for voting • If you believe this to be a high reward, you should vote • It can be a long term investment

  26. The Rational Voting Calculus C> PB +D We Stay At Home C< PB +D We Vote

  27. Partisanship Still the biggest factor in vote choice

  28. The Social-Psychological Model (Michigan Model This Not-This

  29. The Michigan Model • The Funnel of Causality • The events leading up to vote day • Socialization and temporal forces • Party Identification remains the most important part of the model

  30. Party Identification • The same as Partisanship • The Single Best Predictor for how people vote

  31. What is Party Identification • The Concept of party identification • When do we get it

  32. The Development of Party ID • How We Use it • How it evolves throughout our lives • The importance of strong partisans

  33. Strong partisans hold more extreme positions

  34. Party Identification

  35. Measuring Party ID through the Normal Vote • The Normal Vote is when people vote 100% along straight Party lines • What might cause deviations?

  36. Democratic Normal Vote

  37. Republican Normal Vote

  38. The Durability Of Partisanship in 2008 • Democrats voted for Obama, and Republicans voted for McCain • There are more Democrats in the electorate • Obama wins

  39. 2008 Vote by Party ID

  40. Turnout and party Id The 2010 Election

  41. Turnout in 2010 • Very Similar to 2006 • A Smaller Electorate than 2008 • 42% overall

  42. Midyear Tends to be boring

  43. Low Motivation from The Left • Every Democratic Group claimed responsibility for President Obama’s Victory • Supporters wanted immediate policy change on their issue

  44. Who Voted? • GOP was more energized • More conservative • Older • Whiter

  45. Party ID Rules the Day

  46. Groups most likely to vote Democratic stayed at home, and enabled the GOP to win at all levels

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