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Rational Voting. POLS 4349 Dr. Brian William Smith. Office Hours. When Today 10-2 Friday 10-12 Monday 10-2 And by appointment Doyle 226B. Learning Outcomes I. Evaluate how people develop political opinions and how this impacts their political behavior.
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Rational Voting POLS 4349 Dr. Brian William Smith
Office Hours • When • Today 10-2 • Friday 10-12 • Monday 10-2 • And by appointment • Doyle 226B
Learning Outcomes I • Evaluate how people develop political opinions and how this impacts their political behavior. • Evaluate and interpret the importance of partisanship in shaping political opinion and vote choice • Identify and describe the formal and informal institutions involved in the electoral process
Readings • Downs, Anthony. An Economic Theory of Democracy. Chapter 3. • Chapter 3: Partisanship (67-72) (Flanigan)
Should We Vote? The rational voter model
Normative Democratic Theory • The Classical View of Voting • How We should Participate
Rational Choice Theory of Voting • When Should We Vote? • Who should We Vote For?
The Purpose of an Election is Simple • A mandate for the incumbent to continue their policies or • A call for the opposition to Change things
Our Choices are Simple • Abstain • Vote for Our Favorite Party • Vote for Some other Party Because our Favorite Party has no Chance • Vote For a Party at Random
Stay at home Why we abstain
Rational Abstention • The Costs of Voting versus the benefits of voting • The costs often outweigh the benefits • The Result is many eligible citizens never vote (rational abstention)
Why Abstainers are important • Parties have no idea who is going to abstain • Parties cannot ignore these people • There are enough of these people to shift the electoral balance • Their abstention often does not harm them
The Problems of Abstaining • Democracy Cannot Exist • The costs of democracy are too high • The benefits are too low.
The Rational Voting Calculus • C= Cost of participation • B= Benefit of voting • P= Probability that your vote matters • D= The civic duty term C> PB +D We Stay At Home C< PB +D We Vote
Information Costs • The costs of becoming an informed voter • Learning who is running • Understanding the Differences between candidates • Information costs are especially high
Time Costs • Registration • Travel • The vote itself • Ways that we have reduced these over time?
The Monetary Costs of Voting • Poll Taxes- Not any more • Costs of not working • Opportunity Costs
The Impact of High Cost is Low Turnout • Not all costs are born equally • Those who vote less have less political power • This prevents people from making the “wrong Decision”
Benefits, Probability of Deciding an Election, Civic Duty BP +D
Probability of Deciding the Election (P Term) • How Close you believe the election to be • How Many People are expected to vote • If no one votes, democracy collapses
Does the P Term Matter? • Some Say No • Examine the Cumulative Effect • We do not vote for the sake of casting the tie-breaking ballot
Benefits From Voting (B Term) • Direct benefits • Policy Benefits • Desire to see one side win
Civic Duty (D Term) • Democracy is the reward for voting • If you believe this to be a high reward, you should vote • It can be a long term investment
The Rational Voting Calculus C> PB +D We Stay At Home C< PB +D We Vote
Partisanship Still the biggest factor in vote choice
The Social-Psychological Model (Michigan Model This Not-This
The Michigan Model • The Funnel of Causality • The events leading up to vote day • Socialization and temporal forces • Party Identification remains the most important part of the model
Party Identification • The same as Partisanship • The Single Best Predictor for how people vote
What is Party Identification • The Concept of party identification • When do we get it
The Development of Party ID • How We Use it • How it evolves throughout our lives • The importance of strong partisans
Measuring Party ID through the Normal Vote • The Normal Vote is when people vote 100% along straight Party lines • What might cause deviations?
The Durability Of Partisanship in 2008 • Democrats voted for Obama, and Republicans voted for McCain • There are more Democrats in the electorate • Obama wins
Turnout and party Id The 2010 Election
Turnout in 2010 • Very Similar to 2006 • A Smaller Electorate than 2008 • 42% overall
Low Motivation from The Left • Every Democratic Group claimed responsibility for President Obama’s Victory • Supporters wanted immediate policy change on their issue
Who Voted? • GOP was more energized • More conservative • Older • Whiter
Groups most likely to vote Democratic stayed at home, and enabled the GOP to win at all levels