1 / 47

Rational Voting

Rational Voting. POLS 4349 Dr. Brian William Smith. Office Hours. When Today 10-2 Friday 10-12 Monday 10-2 And by appointment Doyle 226B. Learning Outcomes I. Evaluate how people develop political opinions and how this impacts their political behavior.

belle
Download Presentation

Rational Voting

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript


  1. Rational Voting POLS 4349 Dr. Brian William Smith

  2. Office Hours • When • Today 10-2 • Friday 10-12 • Monday 10-2 • And by appointment • Doyle 226B

  3. Learning Outcomes I • Evaluate how people develop political opinions and how this impacts their political behavior. • Evaluate and interpret the importance of partisanship in shaping political opinion and vote choice • Identify and describe the formal and informal institutions involved in the electoral process

  4. Readings • Downs, Anthony. An Economic Theory of Democracy. Chapter 3. • Chapter 3: Partisanship (67-72) (Flanigan)

  5. Should We Vote? The rational voter model

  6. Normative Democratic Theory • The Classical View of Voting • How We should Participate

  7. Rational Choice Theory of Voting • When Should We Vote? • Who should We Vote For?

  8. The Purpose of an Election is Simple • A mandate for the incumbent to continue their policies or • A call for the opposition to Change things

  9. Our Choices are Simple • Abstain • Vote for Our Favorite Party • Vote for Some other Party Because our Favorite Party has no Chance • Vote For a Party at Random

  10. Stay at home Why we abstain

  11. Rational Abstention • The Costs of Voting versus the benefits of voting • The costs often outweigh the benefits • The Result is many eligible citizens never vote (rational abstention)

  12. Why Abstainers are important • Parties have no idea who is going to abstain • Parties cannot ignore these people • There are enough of these people to shift the electoral balance • Their abstention often does not harm them

  13. The Problems of Abstaining • Democracy Cannot Exist • The costs of democracy are too high • The benefits are too low.

  14. Should I vote or abstain?

  15. The Rational Voting Calculus • C= Cost of participation • B= Benefit of voting • P= Probability that your vote matters • D= The civic duty term C> PB +D We Stay At Home C< PB +D We Vote

  16. Information Costs • The costs of becoming an informed voter • Learning who is running • Understanding the Differences between candidates • Information costs are especially high

  17. Time Costs • Registration • Travel • The vote itself • Ways that we have reduced these over time?

  18. The Monetary Costs of Voting • Poll Taxes- Not any more • Costs of not working • Opportunity Costs

  19. The Impact of High Cost is Low Turnout • Not all costs are born equally • Those who vote less have less political power • This prevents people from making the “wrong Decision”

  20. High Costs can deter voters, even if they have a preference

  21. Benefits, Probability of Deciding an Election, Civic Duty BP +D

  22. Probability of Deciding the Election (P Term) • How Close you believe the election to be • How Many People are expected to vote • If no one votes, democracy collapses

  23. Does the P Term Matter? • Some Say No • Examine the Cumulative Effect • We do not vote for the sake of casting the tie-breaking ballot

  24. Benefits From Voting (B Term) • Direct benefits • Policy Benefits • Desire to see one side win

  25. Civic Duty (D Term) • Democracy is the reward for voting • If you believe this to be a high reward, you should vote • It can be a long term investment

  26. The Rational Voting Calculus C> PB +D We Stay At Home C< PB +D We Vote

  27. Partisanship Still the biggest factor in vote choice

  28. The Social-Psychological Model (Michigan Model This Not-This

  29. The Michigan Model • The Funnel of Causality • The events leading up to vote day • Socialization and temporal forces • Party Identification remains the most important part of the model

  30. Party Identification • The same as Partisanship • The Single Best Predictor for how people vote

  31. What is Party Identification • The Concept of party identification • When do we get it

  32. The Development of Party ID • How We Use it • How it evolves throughout our lives • The importance of strong partisans

  33. Strong partisans hold more extreme positions

  34. Party Identification

  35. Measuring Party ID through the Normal Vote • The Normal Vote is when people vote 100% along straight Party lines • What might cause deviations?

  36. Democratic Normal Vote

  37. Republican Normal Vote

  38. The Durability Of Partisanship in 2008 • Democrats voted for Obama, and Republicans voted for McCain • There are more Democrats in the electorate • Obama wins

  39. 2008 Vote by Party ID

  40. Turnout and party Id The 2010 Election

  41. Turnout in 2010 • Very Similar to 2006 • A Smaller Electorate than 2008 • 42% overall

  42. Midyear Tends to be boring

  43. Low Motivation from The Left • Every Democratic Group claimed responsibility for President Obama’s Victory • Supporters wanted immediate policy change on their issue

  44. Who Voted? • GOP was more energized • More conservative • Older • Whiter

  45. Party ID Rules the Day

  46. Groups most likely to vote Democratic stayed at home, and enabled the GOP to win at all levels

More Related