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Rational Voting

Rational Voting. POLS 4349 Dr. Brian William Smith. Office Hours. When Today- no office hours Wed 10-2 And by appointment Doyle 226B. Learning Outcomes I. Evaluate how people develop political opinions and how this impacts their political behavior.

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Rational Voting

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  1. Rational Voting POLS 4349 Dr. Brian William Smith

  2. Office Hours • When • Today- no office hours • Wed 10-2 • And by appointment • Doyle 226B

  3. Learning Outcomes I • Evaluate how people develop political opinions and how this impacts their political behavior. • Evaluate and interpret the importance of partisanship in shaping political opinion and vote choice • Identify and describe the formal and informal institutions involved in the electoral process

  4. Readings • Chapter 3: Partisanship (67-72) (Flanigan)

  5. Should We Vote? The rational voter model

  6. Rational Choice Theory of Voting • When Should We Vote? • Who should We Vote For?

  7. The Rational Voting Calculus • C= Cost of participation • B= Benefit of voting • P= Probability that your vote matters • D= The civic duty term C> PB +D We Stay At Home C< PB +D We Vote

  8. Benefits, Probability of Deciding an Election, Civic Duty BP +D

  9. Benefits From Voting (B Term) • Direct benefits • Policy Benefits • Desire to see one side win

  10. Civic Duty (D Term) • Democracy is the reward for voting • If you believe this to be a high reward, you should vote • It can be a long term investment

  11. The Rational Voting Calculus C> PB +D We Stay At Home C< PB +D We Vote

  12. Partisanship Still the biggest factor in vote choice

  13. The Social-Psychological Model (Michigan Model This Not-This

  14. The Michigan Model • The Funnel of Causality • The events leading up to vote day • Socialization and temporal forces • Party Identification remains the most important part of the model

  15. Party Identification • The same as Partisanship • The Single Best Predictor for how people vote

  16. What is Party Identification • The Concept of party identification • When do we get it

  17. The Development of Party ID • How We Use it • How it evolves throughout our lives • The importance of strong partisans

  18. Strong partisans hold more extreme positions

  19. Party Identification

  20. Measuring Party ID through the Normal Vote • The Normal Vote is when people vote 100% along straight Party lines • What might cause deviations?

  21. Democratic Normal Vote

  22. Republican Normal Vote

  23. The Durability Of Partisanship in 2008 • Democrats voted for Obama, and Republicans voted for McCain • There are more Democrats in the electorate • Obama wins

  24. 2008 Vote by Party ID

  25. Turnout and party Id The 2010 Election

  26. Turnout in 2010 • Very Similar to 2006 • A Smaller Electorate than 2008 • 42% overall

  27. Midyear Tends to be boring

  28. Low Motivation from The Left • Every Democratic Group claimed responsibility for President Obama’s Victory • Supporters wanted immediate policy change on their issue

  29. Who Voted? • GOP was more energized • More conservative • Older • Whiter

  30. Party ID Rules the Day

  31. Groups most likely to vote Democratic stayed at home, and enabled the GOP to win at all levels

  32. The Big Question for 2012 was which electorate would we get: 2008 or 2010?

  33. Those Wacky Fellows What about independents

  34. Two Perceptions of Independents • Wise people who are logical, rational and vote the man not the party • Apolitical morons who do not know anything about politics.

  35. Independents Matter

  36. Why they Matter • 1/3 of the electorate • Necessary to get their support • Often Break for the Wining Candidate • 2004 vs. 2008

  37. The Independent Leaner • Claim to be independent • Actually lean to one of the parties • Have the same behavior as partisans

  38. The Pure Independent • The growth in Independents is not from this group. • Only 7-8% of the population • Less likely to vote and more likely to vote for third party candidates.

  39. Very Few Have No Preference

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