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GHG Modeling Forum, Sept 26-29 2011

Modeling and Forecasting Climate Change, Biophysical Impacts, and Ecological and Economic Implications: Discussion John Antle Agricultural and Resource Economics Oregon State University tradeoffs.oregonstate.edu. GHG Modeling Forum, Sept 26-29 2011.

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GHG Modeling Forum, Sept 26-29 2011

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  1. Modeling and Forecasting Climate Change, Biophysical Impacts, and Ecological and Economic Implications: Discussion John Antle Agricultural and Resource Economics Oregon State University tradeoffs.oregonstate.edu GHG Modeling Forum, Sept 26-29 2011

  2. Implications for Risk Assessment & Policy Design • Representing spatial and temporal variability to characterize outcomes people care about • climate (not just temp!) spatial and temporal scale • limits of crop models: extremes & thresholds; systems • relevant indicators: vulnerability? average calorie availability vs risk of deficit? environmental indicators? price variability? • Adaptation as an investment problem: need to differentiate impact from value of adaptation • limits of statistical and IA approaches

  3. Scope of impacts: • going beyond grains: fruits, veges, livestock, ornamentals… • poverty and food security • environment, ecosystem services • Policy interactions (Antle & Capalbo 2010 AEPP) • GHG mitigation • linkages to domestic, trade policy • effect on flexibility, e.g. conservation • trade implications of mitigation policies • long-term investments: infrastructure • how to “put climate” into policy process?

  4. Broader Concerns • Impact Assessment Perspective: are we following principles of good science? • the danger of GIS • experimental design perspective • ag-specific future scenarios linked to RCPs and SSPs: Representative Ag Pathways • future technology, prices, policy • towards an ensemble approach to quantify uncertainty, improve quality of the science: • integrating & improving data: documenting RAPs, model inputs & outputs • integrating & intercomparing within and across scales

  5. Prototype Economic Model Framework for Simulation and Intercomparison Scenario # - Climate & RAP Regional crop yields Farm/Regional Models Sub-national or national crop yields Aggregation of regional results to sub-national or national level National partial and general equilibrium models Input-Output Models Global partial equil models I-O and General Equil model intercomparison Partial and General Equilibrium Model Intercomparison Regional – aggregate model intercomparison

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