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Radar Refractivity: validation and application to forecasting

Explore the validation of radar refractivity data for forecasting, compare surface measurements, mesonets, and AERI data for accurate predictions. Discover the potential of radar refractivity in nowcasting and forecasting.

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Radar Refractivity: validation and application to forecasting

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  1. Radar Refractivity: validation and application to forecasting Crystalyne R. Pettet, Tammy M. Weckwerth, and James W. Wilson—NCAR/ATD Frédéric Fabry and ShinJu Park—McGill University

  2. Validation

  3. Sfc comparisons S-Pol N varies most strongly with moisture

  4. Sfc comparisons High correlation between S-Pol N and station N

  5. Mobile mesonets S-Pol N compares favorably with areas of relatively constant mobile N

  6. Mobile mesonets S-Pol N gradients are smoothed

  7. UWKA S-Pol N gradient smoothed over ~10 km S-Pol N compares favorably with areas of relatively constant UWKA N

  8. AERI—Atmospheric Emitted Radiance Interferometer

  9. AERI • Transition between 220-355 m from high to low r values

  10. P-3 • If CBL is well-mixed, N represents at least half the depth of the CBL.

  11. AERI—diurnal and height differences • N bias is strongest at night and improves with mixing of CBL • Strongest relationship occurs at low levels

  12. AERI—diurnal and height differences • Low levels—strong relationship from one hour after sunrise until 2 hours after sunset • Increasing height—strong relationship begins later in the morning and drops off by 2200 UTC

  13. Soundings • Similar results to AERI—lowest 200-250 m

  14. SRL • Strong correspondence between SRL mixing ratio magnitude, surface station mixing ratio, and S-Pol N

  15. Forecasting Utility

  16. Boundary development

  17. CI—10 June 2002

  18. CI—10 June 2002

  19. CI—12-13 June 2002

  20. CI—12-13 June 2002

  21. Summary • Radar refractivity shows excellent correlation with refractivity calculated from other datasets • Vertical depth represented by radar refractivity is typically below 200-250 m AGL, but may be dependent upon the extent of vertical mixing • Horizontal scale of refractivity varies, and appears to be as high as 2 km at times and lower than 4 km at other times

  22. Summary • Radar refractivity shows great promise as a potential nowcasting and forecasting tool

  23. For more information… • Contact me at pettet@ucar.edu to get a pdf of the manuscript that has been submitted to JAM that this talk is based on.

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