An Environmental Scan for Our Times

1. An Environmental Scan for Our Times Doug Easterling, Director of Institutional Research, Harper College Sherrie Taylor, Research Associate III, Center of Governmental Studies, Northern Illinois University Illinois Association for Institutional Research Forum 03-04 November 2011 Schiller Park, Illinois

2. What this Presentation Covers • Context for Harper Strategic Plan • Concept & Value of Environmental Scanning • New Tools Available for Scanning • Highlights of Scan Report . . . New & Interesting to Harper

3. What is Environmental Scanning? • Method of reducing uncertainty about the environment surrounding and within borders • Private Sector Concept • Bounded Rationality • Typical Components • External environment • Internal environment • Management environment • SWOT analysis

4. Value of Environmental Scanning for Strategic Planning • Provides broader operating context for implementation of plan • Identify trends & developments likely to impact implementation of plan • Identify opportunities & potential partners • Why this scan is different: • Specific alignment with strategic plan rather than just background • Use of new data tools & specialized expertise

5. Old Cooperation Paradigm

6. New Collaboration Paradigm

7. A Call to Action for Community Colleges

8. Completion Challenge Issue • U.S. was #1 in the World in College Degree Holders • Now, we are #12 among developed nations! • Challenge Goal: • Graduate 5 Million Additional Students by 2010 • Translating into Harper’s Share of 10,604 Additional Graduates

9. Key Factors Influencing Harper’s Strategic Planning Initiative • National Completion Agenda • Need to Change • Community-Based Strategic Planning • Student Success: Shift focus from Access to Completion • Implementing Change • Campus Engagement

10. Harper Profile • Comprehensive Community College in Northwest Suburbs of Chicago • Founded 1967 & named for William Rainey Harper • Fall 2011 headcount of 15,742 & 9,444 FTE • 59% Anglo, 17% Hispanic, 11% Asian, 5% African American • 56% female • 62% full-time/38% part-time • Student intent: 50% transfer/21% career/29% other • Student financial aid: 53% grants; 46% loans • Tuition: • In-district $102.50/credit hour • Out-of-district: $359.50/per credit hour/ • Out-of-state $435 per credit hour • 1600 employees: 60% faculty (23% full-time tenure track)

11. Community College District 512

12. Fiscal & Demographic Context

13. Fiscal & Demographic Context

14. Fiscal & Demographic Context

15. Median Household Income by Municipality Income Gains (2000-2010 in adjusted dollars) Four municipalities gained between 0.0-5.0% Seven municipalities gained between 5.0-10.0% Barrington gained 21.1%, which was an outlier! Income Loss (2000-2010 in adjusted dollars) Six municipalities lost between 0.0-5.0% Five municipalities lost greater than 25.0% Barrington Hills lost 43.21%! Source: Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau Decennial 2000 Census, EASI Analytics, Inc. for 2010 Figures, Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI Adjustment Calculator

16. A Vision without a Plan… • Remains a dream • A plan without a vision gets lost in the urgency of the present • But a vision with a plan can change the world

17. Harper Strategic Plan: Building Community through Student Success

18. Strategic Directions of Harper Plan IInspirationDevelop programs with educational partners that inspire postsecondary education and career readiness as a life goal. P PartnershipsEngage in partnerships to develop programs in existing and emerging career areas that enable students to succeed in a global economy. A AccountabilityCreate a culture of innovation, accountability and transparency. C CompletionIncrease completion and achievement of all students with a focus on underperforming student groups.

19. Inspiration • Educational attainment. Significant new markets are represented by the relatively high educational attainment of area residents and opportunities to attract more in-district postsecondary enrollees to Harper, particularly Baby Boomers. • Unemployment. As in Illinois and the nation, unemployment rates in the Harper College district have been increasing since 2006. Although times of high unemployment are historically good for community colleges, declining household incomes in the Harper district mean that fewer resources are available for education. • Commuting patterns and gas prices. New tools that profile commuters reveal learner markets for Harper College, opportunities that are bolstered by high gas prices. • Common core standards. Harper College’s focus on streamlining the educational system to improve academic achievement at all levels will be supported by Illinois’ adoption and implementation of the Common Core State Standards. • Innovative models. New strategies to help adults reengage with postsecondary education and earn a degree include the ready adult concierge, identifying adults who have earned many credits toward a degree, reducing time-to-degree, and transforming remediation so students can move swiftly to first-year success and completion.

20. Inspiration

21. Inspiration

22. Inspiration

23. Inspiration

24. Inspiration • “Ready Adult Concierge” • Financial Aid Concerns • Complex Re-enrollment Processes • Transcript Issues • Anxiety and Fear • Prior Learning Assessments • Class Scheduling and Alternative Delivery Modes

25. Partnership • Occupational projections. Middle-skill occupations that require credentials offered by community colleges offer careers with the most stability and growth potential. • Industry location quotients (LQs). LQs have the potential to help identify dominant industries and patterns of growth or decline. Four industries are relatively concentrated in the Harper College region: construction, financial activities, manufacturing, and professional and business services. • Future work skills. The global information economy calls for new work basic skills: sense-making, social intelligence, novel and adaptive thinking, cross-cultural competency, computational thinking, new media literacy, transdisciplinarity, design mindset, cognitive load management, and virtual collaboration.

26. Figure 21: 25 Largest Projected Growth Occupations Aggregated by Job Preparation Level Local Workforce Area 8 - 2008-2018 Partnership

27. Partnership Wage by Preparation Level - Local Workforce Area 8

28. Partnership

29. Inspiration • The six drivers are: • Extreme longevity – by 2025 it is estimated that the number of Americans over 60 years of age will increase by 70%. Over the next decade this will change the nature of careers and learning. • The rise of smart machines and systems– workplace automation will push humans even further out of rote, repetitive tasks. This will require us to rethink the content of our work and our work processes and strategies. • Computational world – the continued diffusion of sensors, communications, and processing power will yield unprecedented amounts of data and the opportunity to see new patterns and design systems. • New media ecology – new multimedia technologies are transforming how we communicate. A new ecosystem will emerge around more sophisticated video production, digital animation, augmented reality, gaming and media editing technologies. • Super-structured organizations – new technologies and social media platforms are allowing us to produce and create value outside of traditional organizational boundaries. • Globally connected world – higher rates of growth in developing countries are being fueled by a lack of legacy infrastructure combined with rapidly growing markets. • Source: Institute for the Future (IFTF) for the University of Phoenix Research Institute in early 2011

30. Future Skill Sets SocialIntelligence Design Mindset Sense-making Virtual Collaboration Computational Thinking Novel and Adaptive Thinking New Media Literacy Transdisciplinarity Cross-cultural Competency Cognitive Load Management

31. Accountability Harper College’s Strategic Plan describes this direction as creating a culture of innovation, accountability and transparency. Outcomes identified for this strategic direction include: • Securing at least $1.25 million in partnership funding over four years • Providing constituents with updates on Harper’s progress toward its strategic goals Trends and developments emerging in recent years that may have implications for this strategic direction include availability of funding, new accountability measures, and state data system building initiatives.

32. Accountability

33. Accountability

34. Accountability • New Reporting Requirements by DOE on “Gainful Employment:” • The name and Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) code of the occupations that the program prepares students to enter, along with links to occupational profiles on the U.S. Department of Labor's O*NET Web site • The on-time graduation rate for students completing the program • The tuition and fees the institution charges a student for completing the program • The typical costs for books and supplies (unless included as part of tuition and fees) and any applicable cost of room and board • The job placement rate for students completing the program • The median loan debt incurred by students who completed the program

35. Completion • Increasing completion and achievement of all students with a focus on underperforming student groups is the thrust of this strategic direction. Three associated goals were identified in the strategic plan: • Decreasing student achievement gaps of developmental, young male and black non-Hispanic students while increasing academic achievement for all • Increasing the percentage of first-time, full-time freshmen from feeder high school districts who begin in credit-bearing courses • Increasing the number of certificate and degree completers • Trends and developments in four areas may affect Harper College’s completion activities: income and poverty, K-12 student achievement data, competition, and technology.

36. Completion • Relatively Wealthy in Comparison to Other Areas • All High Schools Increasing Low Income Students • Correlation with Students Attending College • Greater Need for Funding Assistance

37. Completion Source: Illinois State Board of Education, Report Card Data, 2005 & 2010

38. Completion Future Technological Innovations Affecting Education • Source: The Horizon Report, 2011 Edition.

39. Cool Tools for Research Google Earth Application

40. Cool Tools for Research Census/IDES OnTheMap

41. Thank you! • Any Questions, Contact….. • Doug Easterling, Harper College • deasterl@harper.edu, 847.925.6955 • Sherrie Taylor, Northern Illinois University • taylor@niu.edu, 815.753.0925