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Asian Monsoon - ENSO Teleconnections + Climate Change Scenarios for India

K. Krishna Kumar CIRES Visiting Fellow ( kkrishna@colorado.edu ). Asian Monsoon - ENSO Teleconnections + Climate Change Scenarios for India. Outline. Monsoon Variability and ENSO Links Recent indifferent behavior of MONSOON-ENSO links and some plausible explanations

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Asian Monsoon - ENSO Teleconnections + Climate Change Scenarios for India

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  1. K. Krishna Kumar CIRES Visiting Fellow (kkrishna@colorado.edu) Asian Monsoon - ENSO Teleconnections+Climate Change Scenarios for India CSTPR-CIRES 24th October, 03

  2. Outline • Monsoon Variability and ENSO Links • Recent indifferent behavior of MONSOON-ENSO links and some plausible explanations • A brief description on Climate Change Scenarios for the Indian region and possible impacts on Rainfall/Temperature Extremes and Cyclonic Storms CSTPR-CIRES 24th October, 03

  3. Indian Summer Monsoon Flow CSTPR-CIRES 24th October, 03

  4. Monsoon –A Gigantic Land-Sea Breeze CSTPR-CIRES 24th October, 03

  5. Agriculture Facts • India lives mainly in its villages, 600,000 of them • Roughly 65% of the population is rural • India’s growth in per capita food production during 1979-92 was about 1.6% per annum – the highest in the world during this period • Agriculture provides livelihood to about 65% of the labor force • Agriculture contributes nearly 29% to the GDP • In terms of fertilizer consumption, India ranks 4th in the world • About 43% of India’s geographical area is used for agriculture CSTPR-CIRES 24th October, 03

  6. IRRIGATION CSTPR-CIRES 24th October, 03

  7. Total Foodgrain Production in India and its Relation to Indian Rainfall CSTPR-CIRES 24th October, 03

  8. UNESCO (2000) Report on World Water • Earth's hydrosphere contains a huge amount of water equivalent to 1386 million km3. • 97.5% of this amount is saline and only 2.5% fresh water. • The greater portion of this fresh water (68.7%) is in the form of ice and permanent snow cover in the Antarctic, the Artic and in the mountainous region. • Next 31.3% exit as utilizable fresh water. • Only 0.26% of the total amount of fresh water on the earth is concentrated in lakes, reservoirs, and river systems where they are most easily accessible for our economic needs and absolutely vital for water eco system. CSTPR-CIRES 24th October, 03

  9. India’s Water Situation CSTPR-CIRES 24th October, 03

  10. Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, India(An Autonomous Institute under Dept. of Science & Technology, Govt. of India) • Established 1962 • Initially part of Met Department • Autonomous in 1971 • 100 Scientists • Focus on Monsoon Research • Climate Diagnostics and Modelling CSTPR-CIRES 24th October, 03

  11. Mean Rainfall PatternsData Source: CMAP (1979-2000) Summer Monsoon (mm/season) Annual (mm/year) CSTPR-CIRES 24th October, 03

  12. Indian Summer Monsoon Contribution to Annual Rainfall and its VariabilityData Source : CMAP (1979-2000) Monsoon/Annual (%) Coefficient of Variation (%) CSTPR-CIRES 24th October, 03

  13. Mean Annual Cycle of All-India Mean Monthly Rainfall CSTPR-CIRES 24th October, 03

  14. Monsoon Variability Features Factors CSTPR-CIRES 24th October, 03

  15. Daily Evolution of Rainfall on all-India Scale 2002 2003 CSTPR-CIRES 24th October, 03

  16. The Stability of the Indian Summer Monsoon CSTPR-CIRES 24th October, 03

  17. CSTPR-CIRES 24th October, 03

  18. MonRF epochs CSTPR-CIRES 24th October, 03

  19. CSTPR-CIRES 24th October, 03

  20. CSTPR-CIRES 24th October, 03

  21. Schematic view of sea surface temperature and tropical rainfall in the the equatorial Pacific Ocean during normal, El Niño, and La Niña conditions . CSTPR-CIRES 24th October, 03

  22. Global Impacts of ENSO CSTPR-CIRES 24th October, 03

  23. Low-frequency co-variability of Monsoon Rainfall and ENSO CSTPR-CIRES 24th October, 03

  24. CSTPR-CIRES 24th October, 03

  25. CSTPR-CIRES 24th October, 03

  26. Difference in the Composites of Winter (Prior to Monsoon) Surface Air Temperatures over the Eurasian Region during El Nino Events pre-1980 and post-1980 periods (1981-97) – (1951-80) Diff. Climatologies of these Periods El Ninos CSTPR-CIRES 24th October, 03

  27. Relation between Indian Monsoon Rainfall and 200 (A,B) and the Composites of 200 for El Nino Events pre-,post-80’s (C,D) CSTPR-CIRES 24th October, 03

  28. Sea Surface Temp Anomalies in 1982 & 1997 JJA 82 SON 82 Monsoon Rainfall: -13% JJA 97 SON 97 Monsoon Rainfall: +2% CSTPR-CIRES 24th October, 03

  29. Sea Surface Temp Anomalies: 1987 & 2002 JJA 87 SON 87 Monsoon Rainfall: -18% SON 02 JJA 02 Monsoon Rainfall: -19% CSTPR-CIRES 24th October, 03

  30. Precipitation Anomalies: JJA 1982 1997 Monsoon Rainfall: -13% Monsoon Rainfall: +2% 2002 1987 Monsoon Rainfall: -19% Monsoon Rainfall: -18% CSTPR-CIRES 24th October, 03

  31. Precipitation Anomaly in NE Australia (DJF) and NE Brazil (JFM) in 1988 and 1998 1988 1998 1988 1998 CSTPR-CIRES 24th October, 03

  32. Surface Temp Anomaly over North America: DJF 1983 1998 1988 2003 CSTPR-CIRES 24th October, 03

  33. Precipitation/Forecasts of SST and Precipitation in JAS 2002 by Different GCMs CSTPR-CIRES 24th October, 03

  34. CSTPR-CIRES 24th October, 03

  35. CSTPR-CIRES 24th October, 03

  36. SST Patterns Used for ENSO Experiments CSTPR-CIRES 24th October, 03

  37. SST Patterns Used for Indian Ocean Experiments CSTPR-CIRES 24th October, 03

  38. C A A CSTPR-CIRES 24th October, 03

  39. Response of Indian Monsoon Rainfall to DifferentEl Nino Related SST Patterns Model Monsoon Rainfall ENSO - CTL NINODL- NINO ENSOGW- ENSO CSTPR-CIRES 24th October, 03

  40. CSTPR-CIRES 24th October, 03

  41. CSTPR-CIRES 24th October, 03

  42. CSTPR-CIRES 24th October, 03

  43. JJA-1 SON-1 MAM DJF-1 CSTPR-CIRES 24th October, 03

  44. CSTPR-CIRES 24th October, 03

  45. CSTPR-CIRES 24th October, 03

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