Older adults’ housing futures: policy-related research in changing times in Northern Ireland

1. Older adults’ housing futures: policy-related research in changing times in Northern Ireland Chris Paris* & Joe Frey** HSA Conference, York, April 2012 * Emeritus Professor of Housing Studies, University of Ulster ** Head of Research, Northern Ireland Housing Executive

2. Introduction • Paper reviews 5-year programme of research & policy analysis • Future housing needs and requirements of older people in NI • Programme funded & run by the Northern Ireland Housing Executive (NIHE) • Managed by NIHE Research Unit, advised by CP • Overview of 8 research studies • Consider aspects of rapidly changing context • Assess implications for future policy

3. Background • Programme responds to government concerns about ageing • Office of the First Minister and Deputy First Minister (2005) Ageing in an Inclusive Society • NIHE Older People’s Housing Policy Review Action Plan 2008-10 (NIHE, 2007) • Two key processes of change • Rapidly ageing population: growth of over-65s in NI >> UK over next 20 years • Changed and still-changing housing system • Together = new housing context for many more older people • Little NI work on older person’s housing needs & aspirations • NI = distinctive context • From conflict to devolved government & distinctive institutions • Home ownership lagged GB but 70% + by 2001

4. Initial scoping study • Explored numerous issues regarding older people’s housing • What secondary data are available &/or analysed? • What additional primary data is needed? • What literature is available & relevance to NI Ireland? • How should overall programme be organised & managed? • What should be included in the research brief? • Emphasised that older people are not a homogenous group • Needs & wishes of those near retirement differ from current OPs • Much higher levels of home ownership & lower level of social renting

5. Key findings of scoping study Changing health profile: Longer independent lives; ‘compression of morbidity’; health care issues emerge at older ages. But poor coordination of health services & hospital discharge. Need for help & support for independent living in one’s own home Including greater provision of assistive technology Dwelling use issues ‘Under occupancy’, adaptations, maintaining property to decent standard Suitability of current housing options, including retirement villages Isolation: rural (limited mobility) & access to services all areas. Finance: ‘asset rich/income poor’; from OO to supported social; RTB. Fear of crime: and need to feel safe & secure in their own home.

6. Developing & managing the programme • Overall aim • To provide a comprehensive assessment of the current provision of housing for older people in Northern Ireland; determine the adequacy of this provision; identify what new accommodation models and services are required as well as the policy complications of these findings • Research programme developed around 2 themes • Mechanisms to enable older people to remain in their own homes • New provision of accommodation for older people • Programme managed by NIHE Research Unit • Advisory Group & specialist expert adviser • Novel procurement: negotiation with selected consultants • Research Unit provided technical & administrative assistance

7. The overall programme • Eight specific projects relating to OP in NI, at NIHE website • Analysis of the need & demand for retirement villages in NI • Electronic assistive technology to support OP in communities • Review of OP’s housing & housing-related information needs • Home improvement agency services in NI • The potential for equity release schemes • Case study of a dementia-related supported living scheme • Future need & demand for housing & associated services • Review of sheltered housing (expected February 2012)

8. Changing context of OP research • GFC impact in NI >> rest of UK • NI boom 2003-07 • Average prices > England ‘07 • Boom was unsustainable anyway • Speculative, RoI investors • Housing bust amplified by GFC • RoI housing savaged by GFC • OP research initiated during boom but conducted in subsequent bust • Growing government spending restraint reducing scope for possible policy innovations Average house prices UK countries and selected regions as percentage of UK average London SE England England NI England NI Wales Scotland NE England

9. House prices & building NI & RoI RoI average prices (€) RoI housing completions 1994-2010 NI housing starts 1994-2011 NI average (£)

10. Impacts of changing context • Housing market impacts • Less housing equity & more concerns over risks • Affect equity release & viability of retirement villages • Less scope for public funding for innovations • Information provision, especially web-based EAT • Also housing improvement agency work • Demographic drivers not affected • Most research findings remain highly policy-relevant • Preference for ageing at home reinforced, not reduced • Overall research going directly into policy development

11. Key issues for policy development • Demographic trends & health • More over-55s, fewer under-15s = new health spending priorities? • More over-80s suggests rapid increase in number with dementia • Need home-based assistance & HIA schemes to support independence • Housing careers and preferences • Current 50-65s = very different housing careers than current 65+ • Much higher level of OO, less oriented toward social housing options • More scope for market options including retirement villages • Need critical review of social housing in relation to OP options • Need to review sheltered accommodation, both provision and funding • Clear need for better housing information • Including web-based EAT and in traditional forms • Much can be done at relatively little cost • Need much better information on OP preferences & aspirations

12. References • OFM/DFM statement at http://www.ofmdfmni.gov.uk/age-ageing-in-an-inclusive-society • OP research programme and reports • http://www.nihe.gov.uk/older_people_housing_policy_review_action_plan_2008-2010.pdf • http://www.nihe.gov.uk/analysis_of_the_need_and_demand_for_retirement_villages__june_2008_.pdf • http://www.nihe.gov.uk/electronic_assistive_technology_-_supporting_older_people_within_local_communities__published_october_2010_.pdf • http://www.nihe.gov.uk/strategic_review_of_housing_and_housing-related_information_needs_of_older_people_june_2008.pdf • http://www.nihe.gov.uk/moving_forward_with_services_for_older_people_in_northern_ireland.pdf • http://www.nihe.gov.uk/assessment_of_the_potential_for_equity_release_for_older_owner-occupiers__scoping_study___published_october_2010_.pdf • http://www.nihe.gov.uk/barn_halt_cottages_carrickfergus_-_a_study_of_a_supported_living_scheme_final_report__published_december_2010_.pdf • http://www.nihe.gov.uk/analysis_of_the_future_need_and_demand_for_appropriate_models_of_accommodation_and_associated_services_for_older_people__published_february_2011_.pdf • Sheltered housing report to come