Dynamics Model of a Net-Zero Neighborhood

1. Dynamics Model of a Net-Zero Neighborhood Brandon Davis Alabama Agricultural and Mechanical University Dr. Gilbert Weigand Computing and Computational Science Directorate August 2009

2. Overview • Background • Methods • Results • Conclusions • Future work

3. Background • America is • addicted to foreign oil • In 1970, imported 24% of oil currently nearly 70% and rising • Largest wealth transfer ever known to world underway from west to Middle East • losing jobs to foreign competitors • Since 1999 25% of manufacturing jobs lost to foreign competition* • Between 2001 and 2003 (that’s 2 years), Goldman Sachs and Company estimates that 20% of technology jobs have moved overseas, including sophisticated design and innovation jobs • Not leading in the global energy and climate debate • Between 1990 and 2005 U.S. CO2 emissions rose by 1 billion tons (GT) to 7.2 GT/yr • Between 2005 and 2030, additional growth of CO2 emissions will be 2.5 GT** (35%) • U.S. faces growing energy needs and costs in all sectors: residential, commercial, industrial, and Transportation • U.S. faces progressive environmental policy discussion for future, Cap and Trade, higher CAFÉ standards, renewables and conservation incentives, climate protocols, and NIMBY and BANANA*** * Apollo Alliance, www.apolloalliance.org ** U.S Department of Energy, Energy Information Agency *** NIMBY: Not In My Back Yard; BANANA: Build Absolutely Nothing Anywhere Near Anything 3

4. U.S. energy consumption flow Energy sources Energy consumption Electricitygeneration 29% renewables & nuclear 70% fossil (coal & gas only) Industrial 14% electricity 33% gas 39% oil Lost energy (from electricity generation, transmission, and distribution) • Renewablesand Nuclear • 5.9% Renewables • 8.1% Nuclear 24% 27% 38% 14% Residential and Commercial 45% electricity 41% gas 12% oil • Fossil • 22.9% coal • (0% imported) • 40.1% oil(>60% imported) • 22.7% gas • (16% imported) 20% Transportation 99% oil % of Total Energy Sources = 86% 2005 U.S. Energy Flows from: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (Total U.S. energy sources = approximately 100 Quadrillion BTUs <=> 50 million railroad cars full of coal or 50 billion gas-tanks full of gasoline) 28% 4

5. Net-Zero Neighborhood Model Net-zero neighborhood • Take transportation off the gasoline grid • And • Take residential off the grid Cloud Battery ESP Solar grid grid Bio = biologically derived energy generation 5 Industrial scale-solar Industrial scale-solar Industrial Scale Wind

6. Methodology • Use Stella simulation software to create a dynamic model • Represents energy consumption of population of 300,000 • Prove Net-Zero neighborhood trend works • Show lower CO2 emissions • Show decrease in gasoline consumption

7. Net-Zero Neighborhoodsand the Smart Grid 500-mile batteries Electrictransportation Electrictransportation Net-Zero Residential and ESPs Energy storage Energy storage Local Gen Local Gen • Incorporate the energy storage (e.g., batteries) into local smart grid • Electric transportation becomes point to point mass transit • Net-zero neighborhoods use local generation • Energy service providers net-zero neighborhoods along with providing local generation Solar Wind Other Nuclear Central power E-Storage and local smart grid E-Storage and local smart grid National Grid National Grid Geo-thermal FossilCoal, Oil & Gas Hydro Local Gen Local Gen Energy storage Energy storage Electrictransportation Net-Zero Commercial and ESPs Electrictransportation 500-mile batteries 7

8. Governing Equations • Model as an initial value problem • dEk = fi dt and solve using Euler’s method • Euler’s equation first terms of Taylor series expansion • Ek = energy • fi = generation • ti = time • 24 hour time period

9. Net-zeroneighborhood 500-Mile Batteries ElectricTransportation ElectricTransportation Net-Zero Residential & ESPs Energy Storage Energy Storage Local Gen Local Gen Model Wind Solar Other Nuclear National Grid Central Power E-Storage & Local Smart Grid E-Storage & Local Smart Grid National Grid Geo-thermal FossilCoal, Oil & Gas Hydro Local Gen Local Gen Energy Storage Energy Storage • NZN = Local Storage + Local Generation + Electrify Transportation • NZN integrates seamlessly with other energy generation plans and the national grid ElectricTransportation ElectricTransportation Net-Zero Commercial & ESPs 500-Mile Batteries Coal Gas Nuclear Oil Electricity Commercial Residential ESP Storage Hybrid EV Net-Zero Neighborhood Simulation Map Stella model

10. Stella model

11. Results Storage Consumption

12. Simulation Results

13. Discussion of Results • Comparison between 2010 and 2030 were analyzed account 50 percent net-zero generation and 50 percent transportation • Local storage switches all energy generation forms, e.g., solar and wind, into base load capacity • At 50% market penetration • NZN reduces CO2 emissions by more than 50% • NZN can reduce oil imports by as much as 50%

14. Conclusion • NZN effectively reduces U.S.: • CO2 emissions and oil imports • creates U.S. jobs in NZN locals • national environmental sustainability goals • energy security goals

15. Future Work • Develop more comprehensive model to include time zone, seasonal, and regional affects, and multiple year • Investigate specific R&D options for 500-mile battery to electrify transportation and 50% efficient solar cells

16. Acknowledgements • Dr. Gilbert Weigand, Debbie McCoy, Rashida Askia, Dr. Z.T. Deng, Alabama A&M University • Office of science • Oak Ridge National Laboratory • Department of Energy

17. Questions