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Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Impact in Midwestern US Agricultural River Basin

This seminar discusses the integrated assessment of climate change impact in a typical agricultural river basin in the Midwestern US, focusing on the effects on low flow frequency and agricultural profits. It explores climate change scenarios, mitigation efforts, and the use of a hydrological and agricultural modeling tool to analyze the impacts. The seminar also highlights the implications and limitations of the study.

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Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Impact in Midwestern US Agricultural River Basin

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  1. EPA STAR Seminar Civil and Environmental Engineering U N I V E R S I T Y O F I L L I N O I S A T U R B A N A – C H A M P A I G N Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Impact in Typical Agricultural River Basin of the Midwestern US Hyunhee An*, Hua Xie J. Wayland Eheart and Edwin Herricks EPA Region 5 Chicago, July 14, 2004

  2. Projects Publications • US. EPA Star program : Award No. EPA R827451-01 • Eheart, J.W. and Tornil, D.W.  Low flow frequency exacerbation by irrigation withdrawals in the agricultural midwest under various climate change scenarios, Water Resources Research Vol. 35, no. 7, p.2237 2246 Jul 1999. • Wollmuth, J.J. C. and J.W. Eheart, Surface Water Withdrawal Allocation and Trading Systems for Traditionally Riparian Areas, Journal of the American Water Resources Association, April 2000. • Hyunhee An and J. W. Eheart, Protecting Midwestern stream from Climate change impact, Annual meeting of EWRI, Orlando, FL, May 20-24, 2001

  3. Hyunhee An and W Eheart, Investigation of Trading of stream withdrawal permits in   traditionally humid areas, Annual meeting of EWRI, Roanoke, VA, May 19-22, 2002 • Hua Xie and J. W. Eheart, Assessing Vulnerability of Water Resources to Climate Change in Midwest, Annual meeting of EWRI, Philadelphia, PA,  June 23-26,  2003 • Hyunhee An and J. W Eheart, Evaluations of regulatory programs that constrain water withdrawals based on a regulated riparian legal foundation, Annual meeting of EWRI, Salt Lake City, UT, June 27-July 1, 2004 • Hua Xie and J. W. Eheart, Implications of Climate Change for a Typical Agricultural River Basin of the Midwestern US , Annual meeting of EWRI,Salt Lake City, UT, June 27- July 1, 2004

  4. Mackinaw River Basins

  5. Study Basin: Economy & Ecology

  6. Sequence • Selection of climate change scenarios • Mitigation efforts: irrigation, alternative crops • Selection of criteria to demonstrate impacts: LF and Profits • Model Run and analysis

  7. 1. Selection of Climate change scenarios

  8. Two GCMs for climate change scenarios (National Assessment Synthesis Team, 2000) More frequent droughts with irregular rainfall

  9. Canadian Model Temperature & Precipitation Data Source: Oklahoma City, OK Atmospheric CO2 Increased use of fossil fuels  700 ppm by 2100 National Assessment Synthesis Team, 2000

  10. Climate change scenarios 1. Current climate - Bloomington, IL, 1963-1992 2. Future climate - Oklahoma City, OK 1963-1992 (CO2= 350ppm) - Oklahoma City, OK 1963-1992 (CO2= 700ppm)

  11. 2. Mitigation efforts

  12. Basin response to climate change Plant biomass development Evapotranspiration Precipitation Crop yield Irrigation Streamflow Photo from Jian-Ping Suen

  13. Mitigation efforts • Irrigation • Alternative crops • Corn • Soybean • Double cropping (Soybean + winter wheat)

  14. 3. Selection of criteria to demonstrate impacts: Low flow frequency Profits

  15. Criterion 1 Vulnerability of Regional Water Resources: Low flow frequency Low flow standard 7Q10

  16. Locations of Reference Gauging Stations

  17. Criterion 2Impacts on agricultural economy • Farmers’ aggregate Profits Yit = crop yields (bushel/ha-yr) CP = Crop market price ($/bushel) IRit = the amount of irrigation (mm/yr) VIRCit = variable irrigation cost ($/ha-mm) FIRCit = fixed irrigation cost ($/ha-yr) NIRCit = Non-irrigation cost for crop production ($/ha-yr)

  18. Assessment Framework The direct effects of climate change The effects of irrigation Alternative crops – Corn / Soybean / Soybean + winter wheat

  19. 4. Model Runs and Analysis

  20. SWAT(Soil & Water Assessment Tool) • SWAT is a river basin scale hydrological and agricultural model • Predicts water movement, impacts of land management practices in a watershed with varying landuse and soil types under given climate

  21. Model performance – Corn Yields USDA: US Department of Agriculture FBFM: Illinois Farm Business Farm Management Association

  22. Model Performance - Hydrograph

  23. Results

  24. Results - corn yields

  25. 370ppm 550ppm Field experiments Uribelarrea et al., 2003

  26. Profits – Cumulative distribution

  27. Low Flow Frequencies - CDF near Congerville

  28. Low Flow Frequencies - CDF near Green Valley

  29. Alternative crops – Profits

  30. Alternative Crops – Low flow frequency

  31. Same / better Worse Worse / Same Worse Summary Alternative crops – similar results as corn

  32. Implications • Climate change could leave basins more or less unchanged • Irrigation could threat health of aquatic systems  Regulatory program to control surface water withdrawals in IL

  33. Limitations • Uncertainty • climate change scenarios • Down-scaling techniques • Model adequacy for simulating elevated CO2 • Model adequacy for simulating double cropping

  34. Acknowledgements • Dr. Jeff Arnold, Dr. Susan Neitsch, and Ms. Nancy Sammons – USDA ARS Blackland Research Center , Temple, TX

  35. Questions?? Email: Hyunhee An, han4@uiuc.edu

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