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Planning for change

Planning for change. Professor John Handley School of Environment and Development University of Manchester Forests & Climate Change Conference, BAFTA, London, November 21 st 2007. Change in mean annual temperature by the end of this century. Based on IPCC SRES Scenario A2

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Planning for change

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  1. Planning for change Professor John Handley School of Environment and Development University of Manchester Forests & Climate Change Conference, BAFTA, London, November 21st 2007

  2. Change in mean annual temperature by the end of this century Based on IPCC SRES Scenario A2 (EC Green Paper, 2007)

  3. Change in mean annual precipitation by the end of this century Based on IPCC SRES Scenario A2 (EC Green Paper, 2007)

  4. Confidence in UK climate change • Average temperature increases • High temperature extremes increases in frequency • Low temperature extremes decrease in frequency • Sea-surface temperature warms • Thermal growing season lengthens • Winter precipitation increases • Winter precipitation intensity increases • Snowfall decreases • Summer soil moisture decreases • Sea-level rises • Extremes of sea-level become more frequent Source: UKCIP02

  5. Twin responses to global climate change “There are two methods of curing the mischiefs of faction: the one by removing its causes, the other by controlling its effects.” James Madison et al, The Federalist Papers 1. Mitigation of climate change slow down global warming by reducing greenhouse gas emissions 2. Adaptation to climate change respond to the predicted impacts of unavoidable climate change Because of the inertia in the climate system, impacts through to the latter 2040s will be determined by emissions already made in the latter part of the 20th Century. Therefore, impacts through to the 2040s are unavoidable and need to be addressed (now) UK Climate Impacts Programme

  6. Pathways to climate change adaptation

  7. England’s Northwest

  8. Climate Change Impacts in the Built Environment • The built environment is distinctive • High building mass increases thermal capacity • Surface sealing increases rainfall run-off • Climate change strengthens the urban heat island and accelerates run-off

  9. Priority themes for risk assessment

  10. Temperature change in the Mersey Belt

  11. Surface temperature

  12. Trees in the public realm

  13. Effect of adding/subtracting greenspace on surface temperature

  14. Trees and air conditioning, Bratislava

  15. Tree cover in the urban area of Greater Manchester

  16. Surface Cover and Residential Density

  17. Red Rose Forest: Green Streets

  18. Green Infrastructure “Green Infrastructure is an interconnected network of green space that conserves natural ecosystem values and functions and provides associated benefits to human populations” Benedict & McMahon, 2002

  19. Climate Adaptation via the Green Infrastructure Corridor Patch Matrix Functional importance of urban greenspace needs to be reflected in RSS and LDFs

  20. Green Infrastructure in Greater Manchester

  21. The case for trees around towns ‘The suitable pattern therefore seems inevitable – we should surround our towns and cities with trees. The Forestry Commission is proving to be an excellent amenity body in its handling both of scenery and recreation; it also has powers to buy land to improve the landscape, and nowhere would its operations mean more improvement than here.’ ‘New Lives, New Landscapes’, Nan Fairbrother, 1970

  22. The National Community Forest Programme

  23. What makes a Community Forest? • Plan – long term • Vision – sets the direction • Partnership – responsive and focused, support, steering • Team – enabling, coordinating, developing projects with communities

  24. Climate change may bring opportunities “there are potential benefits resulting from climate change in some economic sectors, especially tourism and recreation, but we can be less certain about the scale of such benefits and they are unlikely to be distributed evenly across the sector”

  25. Changes in Tourism Climatic Index for Blackpool and Balearics Source: Amelung & Viner, 2006

  26. Climate Change and the Visitor Economy Case Study Landscapes: • Integrity of the Sefton Dune System • Moorland wildfires in the Peak District • Footpath erosion in the Lake District • Public Spaces in Manchester city centre

  27. Visitor Economy Climate Change Pressures Responses State of the landscape Impacts on the landscape and its utilisation CCVE Research Framework

  28. Invest to sustain visitor capacity in the ‘man-made wild’

  29. Regional importance of high capacity landscapes e.g. Delamere and Grizedale Forests

  30. Heavier winter rainfall in the Lake District

  31. Woodland cover increases visitor capacity

  32. Delamere Forest – a heavy duty landscape close to 4 million people

  33. Conclusion “England’s trees, woods and forests have a major role to play in helping us to cope with life in a changing climate. The 10-15 year timescale of this strategy is set within a longer term vision of what we want England’s trees, woods and forests to look like and to deliver in the second half of this century.” (A Strategy for England’s Trees, Woods and Forests, DEFRA, 2007).

  34. Acknowledgements • To Gina Cavan for assistance with this presentation • To EPSRC, DEFRA and NWDA for supporting the underpinning research

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