DROUGHT STATUS IN THE AGRICULTURE SECTOR

1. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE, FORESTRY AND FISHERIES DROUGHT STATUS IN THE AGRICULTURE SECTOR PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE ON WATER AND SANITATION 7 FEBRUARY 2018

2. PRESENTATION LAYOUT Acronyms Impact of Drought in the Sector Livestock production Crop production Impact on Forestry and Aquaculture Status of drought in the Country Provincial analysis on the current status – Western Cape Provincial analysis on the current status – Northern Cape Provincial analysis on the current status – Eastern Cape Dam levels and Implications On-going projects to alleviate drought Progress on Communication, Public Awareness and Advocacy on Drought Conclusion

3. ACRONYMS ARC Agricultural Research Council CSA Climate Smart Agriculture CEC Crop Estimate Committee DAFF Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries DRM Disaster Risk Management DRR Disaster Risk Reduction EC Eastern Cape HA Hectares KyD Kaonafatso ya Dikgomo NC Northern Cape NJDCC National Joint Drought Coordinating Committee NAC National Agrometeorological Committee WC Western Cape

4. IMPACT OF DROUGHT IN THE SECTOR

5. LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION Due to the precipitation received previously in some of the Provinces, livestock are in a very good condition with the exception of the Western Cape (WC) Province, Sarah Baartman district of Eastern Cape (EC) Province and parts of the Namaqua District of the Northern Cape (NC) Province, including areas that have not recovered fully. Livestock prices are also reported to be good (excluding WC, EC and NC) and farmers are still encouraged to sell weaners and unproductive stock in drier areas. Above normal precipitation which previously occurred in most provinces also alleviated feed shortages and high prices in the drought stricken areas. The poultry industry is mainly affected by avian influenza – which lead to higher prices in eggs while the feed (poultry) prices were decreasing.

6. CROP PRODUCTION (source: Food Security Bulletin, 12 January 2018 issue) According to the Crop Estimate Committee (CEC), the areas planted for 2017 is 3 981 700 hectares (ha) as compared to 3 273 550 ha in 2016 (+708 150 ha planted in 2017). The CEC further notes that, the size of the expected commercial maize crop has been set at 16,413 million tons which is 2,78% or 444 175 tons more than the previous forecast of 15,969 million tons. It is the largest maize crop produced in the history of South Africa. The area estimate for maize is 2,629 million hectares, while the expected yield is 6,24 tons/hectare, the highest yield ever. The three main maize producing areas, namely the Free State, Mpumalanga and North West Provinces are expected to produce 83% of the 2017 crop.

7. CROP PRODUCTION (continued) According to the CEC, 2017 the area of planted maize in the non-commercial agricultural sector is estimated at 366 650 ha’s, which represents an increase of 37,77%, compared to the 266 130 ha of the previous season. Higher crop production benefits consumers than producers. Producers intentions to plant summer crops are based on the results of a non-probability survey conducted by the Directorate: Statistics and Economic Analysis of the Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries and reflects the position as at the middle of October 2017. According to the results of the survey, commercial producers intend to plant 2,470 million ha of maize for 2018, which is 6,0% or 158 200 ha less than the 2,629 million ha planted last season. The figures show that producers intend to plant 1,404 million ha of white maize, which is 239 000 ha (14,5%) less than in the previous season. In the case of yellow maize, the expected plantings are 1,066 million ha, which is 80 800 ha (8,2%) more than in the previous season.

8. CROP PRODUCTION (continued) Producers indicated that less maize, especially white maize, will be planted for the 2018 season, mainly because of farmers switching to other crops such as oilseeds and yellow maize, due to price competitiveness. In the case of sunflower seeds, the expected area planted is estimated at 665 500 ha, which is 4,7% or 29 750 ha more than the 635 750 ha planted last season. The increase in the expected area planted of sunflower seed is mainly because of increases in the Free State and North West Provinces, due to indications that the expected area planted with white maize will decrease more in the afore-mentioned provinces than in the other provinces. The intended plantings of soybeans shows an increase of 25,4% or 146 050 ha compared to the previous season – from 573 950 ha to 720 000 ha. The expected plantings of groundnuts will also increase by 17,0% or 9 500 ha, from 56 000 ha to 65 500 ha.

9. CROP PRODUCTION (continued) The intended plantings of sorghum is expected to increase slightly by 3,2% or 1 350 ha to 43 700 ha, compared to the previous season. The expected plantings of dry beans is estimated at 60 000 ha, which is 33,2% or 14 950 ha more than in the previous season. Please note that the preliminary area planted estimate for summer grains for 2018 will be released on 30 January 2018.

10. IMPACT ON FORESTRY AND AQUACULTURE Commercial Forestry • Minimal rain and or no rain affects planting thus increasing Temporary Unplanted Areas and the cost of planting • Heat waves experienced during the planting season i.e. Quarter 3 and 4 affects seedlings resulting in a high mortality rate. • Veld fires are imminent with potential to have long term impact on the sector. • Proliferation of pests and diseases. The above could result in job losses in the sector. Aquaculture No direct impact identified regarding the current drought status on aquaculture. Most of the aquaculture farmers are using sea water and boreholes.

11. CURRENT STATUS

12. AFFECTED PROVINCES The following analysis is based on the National Agro-meteorological Committee (NAC) reports and National Joint Drought Coordinating Committee (NJDCC) reports as presented by respective Provincial Disaster Management Centres (PDMC) Western Cape Eastern Cape Northern Cape Free State Limpopo North West KwaZulu Natal Mpumalanga Gauteng At the worst currently with the Western Cape on top of the list Provincial states of drought declared in all three with the Eastern Cape still pending Premier’s approval Most parts of the provinces received near normal to above normal rainfall but experience very high temperatures. However, most parts of the Free State received below normal rainfall and as such dam levels are decreasing. Situation still good currently in most parts of both Provinces

13. STATUS OF DROUGHT IN THE COUNTRY Provincial reports analysis indicate that the WC, EC and parts of the NC Provinces continue to experience dire conditions of drought. The WC Province, shares the largest percentage in terms of the Provinces affected by the drought currently. According to the NAC, 2017 vegetation activity is low in the Western Cape, parts of the Eastern Cape, southern and western parts of the Northern Cape, eastern parts of Limpopo and northern KwaZulu-Natal. In other areas of the country, the vegetation activity is generally near normal. However, due to the dependency of livestock on grazing, the state of vegetation further contributed to the double digit inflation of meat prices. Very high temperatures experienced in January resulted in high evaporation. Statistics South Africa, 2017 notes that the high levels of meat inflation are attributable to a number of factors; one main factor being herd rebuilding as a result of drought.

14. PROVINCIAL ANALYSIS ON CURRENT STATUS–WESTERN CAPE (UPDATE UP TO JANUARY 2018) • The overall water level of state dams in the Province remained extremely below the levels of the previous winter season and dropping further due to the dry conditions during this month, resulting in an average of 28% on 8th of January 2018 compared to 43% in 2017 and 51% in 2016. Rainfall over most areas (including summer and winter rainfall regions) in the Province was 50% below normal. According to the Crop Estimates Committee media release of 19th December 2017, the current wheat crop stands at 586 800 tons, which is much lower than for example 2014’s figure of 883 500 tons. Smaller fruit and grape harvests are imminent (fruit trees having been uprooted). The Matzikamma region and the Karoo regions are still exposed to extreme drought conditions. The next round of drought assessments are to be done this week.

15. PROVINCIAL ANALYSIS ON CURRENT STATUS–WESTERN CAPE (UPDATE UP TO JANUARY 2018) (continuation) • In order to maintain the condition of livestock through the provision of sufficient additional feed, farmers are receiving the necessary drought aid in most of the districts of the Province. R40m was allocated for the provision of fodder for drought and fire incidences. R20m has already been spent servicing 2158 farmers with livestock fodder to date. There are approximately 350 subsistence/small holder farmers participating in KaonafatsoyaDikgomo(KyD) (Animal Improvement Scheme) in the WC with herd size of 6 150 LSU. 40% Of the farmers sold animals due to drought, 60% reduced stocking rate. Although feed prices are high, farmers are buying feed from other Provinces. Farmers are advised to sell animals which are not productive and save the money for restocking in the future when conditions improve.

16. PROVINCIAL ANALYSIS ON CURRENT STATUS – NORTHERN CAPE • Large portions of the Namakwa and PixleykaSeme districts are experiencing severe drought conditions. • The precipitation shortfall in the drought affected areas remains a concern. • The Namakwa and Pixley ka Seme District Municipalities declared a local state of drought disaster; thus the classification has been granted as provincial declaration. • No field crops were planted due to the low rainfall in the early raining season. Wine grapes and dry grapes are in full growth and farmers are busy with exporting table grapes. The veld and livestock conditions are poor in most parts. The availability of livestock water remains a problem in some areas. The Province has allocated R1million for fodder and transportation Interventions are needed for fodder and water Alien vegetation is a major problem consuming underground water.

17. PROVINCIAL ANALYSIS ON CURRENT STATUS – EASTERN CAPE • The Province received below normal rainfall, except in parts of the Alfred Nzo and Amathole Districts where normal rainfall was received. The conditions of crops range from fair to poor, with the exception of some areas in Alfred Nzo, Joe Gqabi, Chris Hani, and Sarah Baartman Districts where they are in a very poor condition. Livestock conditions are reported to be fair to very poor in some parts of the Province. All regions to the south and north-east of the Province reported reasonable to good pasture conditions, whereas the rest of the Province reported poor to very poor conditions. The Amatole, Chris Hani, OR Tambo and Alfred Nzo districts (approximately 1500 subsistence/small holder farmers with herd size 600) - farmers participating in KyD experienced high livestock mortalities. Some of the small holder farmers are buying feed from commercial farmers but most farmers are not still not adhering to advise to reduce livestock.

18. DAM LEVELS AND IMPLICATIONS Provincial State of Dams as at 15 January 2018

19. DAM LEVELS AND IMPLICATIONS (continuation) Water restrictions are still in place across the Country. Level 6 restrictions have been implemented in the Western Cape. (No watering/irrigation with Municipal drinking water is allowed. The use of boreholes for outdoor activities including irrigation is greatly discouraged to preserve groundwater). Agricultural users will have to reduce monthly water usage by 60% in the WC. Wine Production will decline. However, the drier conditions in general means improved quality of wine. The lower volumes may lead to a modest increase in prices to the benefit of the producers. Reduction in water levels generally affects irrigation farming, however, farmers are still advised to abide by water conservation measures. The delay of the planting season (most areas did land preparation and planting of summer crop in December).

20. ON-GOING PROGRAMMES TO ALLEVIATE DROUGHT R40 million allocated to the Western Cape for feed provision is underway. The Northern Cape has allocated R1million for feed provision and transportation. Dissemination of early warning information and advisories. Public awareness campaigns. DAFF is working with the Agricultural Research Council (ARC) to assist small-holder farmers to improve the productivity and profitability of their businesses under changing environmental condition through implementation of Kaonafatso ya Dikgomo (animal improvement scheme). As part of the KyD, the ARC uses farmers’ days as a platform for information dissemination on benefits of participating in KyD as well as sharing information on pertinent issues such as drought feeding strategies, veld assessment, bull selection and stock theft.

21. ON-GOING PROGRAMMES TO ALLEVIATE DROUGHT (continuation) Climate Smart Agriculture (CSA) – implementation of crop suitability programmes on sustainable soya bean production is on-going in Mpumalanga, Limpopo, Free State and North West Provinces. Climate change information dissemination, experiential learning, extension, awareness and training targeting smallholder and resource poor farmers.

22. PROGRESS ON COMMUNICATION, PUBLIC AWARENESS AND ADVOCACY ON DROUGHT DAFF has embarked on capacitating farming communities on understanding, interpretation and usage of weather and climate to agriculture for disaster risk reduction (DRR) and also enhance their day to day farming activities. These include roving seminars and study groups where farmers share experiences of how best natural hazards can be mitigated at the farm level as well as adaptation strategies. Capacity building on disaster risk management (DRM) and climate change continues in the sector with the aim of mitigating impacts of hazards including drought and climate change. Booklets on coping strategies for natural hazards have been developed following research on best farming practices and translated into all official languages to be understood by all. The booklets are for various hazards including for drought. These booklets continue to be distributed during sectoral events including farmers’ days.

23. CONCLUSION Drought is still persisting in most parts of the Country and therefore strict measures are still in place. Farmers are still advised to be conservative in their planning as the Country is not out of drought yet. Livestock farmers are advised to keep stock numbers in line with the available grazing so as to prevent overstocking/overgrazing. Farmers are encouraged to implement measures provided in the early warning/advisory information issued. Programmes to conserve the natural resources are encouraged; however, sharing of resources at communal farms makes this less achievable. Less rainfall received and high temperatures experienced affected both crop and livestock negatively but recent rains experienced over the summer rainfall area will relieve all producers throughout the country .

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