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Verification results of heat wave warnings in Croatia

Verification results of heat wave warnings in Croatia. L. Kalin and Z. Vakula Meteorological and Hydrological Service of Croatia. heat waves. July – August 2003 in France approx. 70 000 deaths associated with heat stress. warnings.

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Verification results of heat wave warnings in Croatia

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  1. Verification results of heat wave warnings in Croatia L. Kalin and Z. Vakula Meteorological and Hydrological Service of Croatia 13th EMS-ECAM, 09 – 13 September 2013, Reading,UK

  2. heat waves... • July – August 2003 in France • approx. 70 000 deaths associated with heat stress 13th EMS-ECAM, 09 – 13 September 2013, Reading,UK

  3. warnings... • a major role of national meteorological services in the future will be associated with weather warnings • reliableand in-time prediction of high impact weather can provide more efficient mitigation, it can reduce costsand save lives 13th EMS-ECAM, 09 – 13 September 2013, Reading,UK

  4. heat warnings... • since 2012 • Meteorological and Hydrological Service of Croatia • in cooperation with Ministry of Health • issued daily - for the next four days – 8 regions 13th EMS-ECAM, 09 – 13 September 2013, Reading,UK

  5. criteria... if both conditions are met OR a level persists for 3 days then go one (and only one) level up! 13th EMS-ECAM, 09 – 13 September 2013, Reading,UK

  6. end product • Issued every day at 11 am • Delivered to special users 13th EMS-ECAM, 09 – 13 September 2013, Reading,UK

  7. seasonal forecast 13th EMS-ECAM, 09 – 13 September 2013, Reading,UK

  8. summer 2012 • Extremely hot (in many places record breaking) 13th EMS-ECAM, 09 – 13 September 2013, Reading,UK

  9. July forecast/observed • Operational forecast (for the next day) 13th EMS-ECAM, 09 – 13 September 2013, Reading,UK

  10. August forecast/observed • Operational forecast (for the next day) 13th EMS-ECAM, 09 – 13 September 2013, Reading,UK

  11. results • a significant number of days with warning level (observations), particularly on the coast 13th EMS-ECAM, 09 – 13 September 2013, Reading,UK

  12. results • significant overestimation, not related to lead time 13th EMS-ECAM, 09 – 13 September 2013, Reading,UK

  13. results ...particularly for the “very high danger” events 13th EMS-ECAM, 09 – 13 September 2013, Reading,UK

  14. results ...still a number of “misses” 13th EMS-ECAM, 09 – 13 September 2013, Reading,UK

  15. scores ...no evolution with time 13th EMS-ECAM, 09 – 13 September 2013, Reading,UK

  16. scores ...no evolution with time 13th EMS-ECAM, 09 – 13 September 2013, Reading,UK

  17. summary • DHMZ issues heat warnings since 2012 • based on objective/climatological guidance (Tmin and Tmax) • positive societal impact • forecasts slight overbiased, particularly for the higher danger levels – reasonable? • no significant dependance on lead time? • system slightly “oversensitive” – leads to spatial-temporal incoherence (reflects on the verif. scores) • provide feed-back to the forecasters • improve forecasting system for the next seasons 13th EMS-ECAM, 09 – 13 September 2013, Reading,UK

  18. Thank you for your attention! 13th EMS-ECAM, 09 – 13 September 2013, Reading,UK

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