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Assessment of Land-Surface Air Temperature and Precipitation Trends

This study evaluates trends and variability in land-surface air temperature and precipitation. The focus is on model reproducibility, with results spanning from 1872 to 2001.

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Assessment of Land-Surface Air Temperature and Precipitation Trends

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  1. Trend and Year-to-year Variability of Land-Surface Air Temperature and Land-only Precipitation Simulated by the JMA AGCM By Shoji KUSUNOKI, Keiichi MATSUMARU, Toshiyuki NAKAEGAWA, and Osamu ARAKAWA Climate Research Department Meteorological Research Institute Japan Meteorological Agency

  2. Contents • Purpose • Model • 3. Experimental design • 4. Results • 5. Summary

  3. Purpose • Evaluate model’s reproducibility • 1. Focus • 　　　●Trend • 　　　●Year-to-year variability • Target physical variable • ● Land surface temperature • ●Land-only precipitation

  4. Model : MJ98 Resolution: T42, 270 km grid spacing, 30 levels, 0.4 hPa top Radiation: Shibata et al. (1999) Deep convection: Prognostic of Arakawa-Schubert, Randal and Pan (1993) Land surface: Simple Biosphere (SiB) model, Sato et al. (1989) Vertical diffusion: Mellor and Yamada (1974), level 2 closure Gravity wave drug: Iwasaki et al. (1989)

  5. Experimental Design Standard Run: 6 members 1872 2001 SST=OBS, CO2=OBS CO2 Const Run: 6 members 1951-2001 Run: 6 members 1872 1949 1951 2001 SST=OBS CO2= 285 ppmv SST=OBS CO2=OBS

  6. Standard Run External forcing Sea Surface Temperature: HadISST1.1 Sea Ice: HadISST1.0 CO2: GISS data by Hansen et al. (2002) N2O=306 ppbv, CH4=1650 ppbv by AMIP2 NO sulfates, Solar constant unchanged NO ozone depletion Ensemble size: 6 Target period: 1872-2001, 130 years

  7. Sea Surface Temperature (SST),Global mean, Annual meanAnomaly from 1961-1990 climatology 1872 YEAR 2001

  8. CO2 Concentration 370 Standard run 288 CO2 285 ppm run 285 2001 1872 1949

  9. Observational Data for Verification Land surface temperature Source: Jones et al. (2001) Target period: 1872~2001 Resolution: Monthly, 5 degree grid Precipitation, Land only Source: Hulme et al. (1998) Target period: 1901~1997 Resolution: Monthly, 5 degree grid http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/

  10. Land Surface Air TemperatureGlobal, Annual, Anomaly from 1961-1990 climatology OBSERVATION Each Model Run YEAR 1872 2001

  11. Land Surface Air TemperatureGlobal, Annual, Linear Trend OBSERVATION MODEL Ensemble Average YEAR 1872 2001

  12. Land surface Air Temperature, Global Linear trend (C/Century) OBS MODEL Ann Spr Sum Aut Win

  13. Annual Trend (C/Century) 1872-2001 OBS Model

  14. Land Surface Air TemperatureGlobal, Annual, Anomaly from 1961-1990 climatology Each Model Run OBSERVATION 1945 1910 YEAR 1975 1872 2001

  15. Annual Trend (C/Century) 1910-1945 OBS Model

  16. Annual Trend (C/Century) 1946-1975 OBS Model

  17. Annual Trend (C/Century) 1976-2001 OBS Model

  18. Land Surface Air TemperatureGlobal, Annual, Linear Trend OBSERVATION MODEL Ensemble Average YEAR 1872 2001

  19. Land surface Temperature, Temporal correlation coefficient (%)between observation and modelAnnual, 1905-2001, Detrended

  20. Land surface Temperature, Temporal correlation coefficient (%)between observation and modelSummer (JJA), 1905-2001 , Detrended

  21. Land surface Temperature, Temporal correlation coefficient (%)between observation and modelWinter (DJF), 1905-2001 , Detrended

  22. Land Surface Air TemperatureGlobal, Annual, Linear Trend MODEL Ensemble Average 1872-1891 YEAR 1982-2001

  23. Model, Zonal Average

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