1 / 13

Hydrologic Modeling For Flood Warning And Reservoir Management

Hydrologic Modeling For Flood Warning And Reservoir Management. Juan Borús, Marcelo Uriburu Quirno , Dora Goniadzki, Daniel Vila Hydrological Warning System for the Del Plata Basin National Water Institute ARGENTINA. BALWOIS 2006 23rd – 26th of May, 2006.

bordeaux
Download Presentation

Hydrologic Modeling For Flood Warning And Reservoir Management

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Hydrologic Modeling For Flood Warning And Reservoir Management Juan Borús, Marcelo Uriburu Quirno, Dora Goniadzki, Daniel Vila Hydrological Warning System for the Del Plata Basin National Water Institute ARGENTINA BALWOIS 2006 23rd – 26th of May, 2006

  2. CASE STUDY: IBICUI RIVER BASIN in BRAZIL Ibicui River Basin in South America Drainage network and rain gauges

  3. MODIFIED SACRAMENTO MODEL - SCHEMATIC DIAGRAM P ET1 • Rainfall-Runoff + Flow Routing • Four State Variables: Upper & Lower Layer Soil Moisture Contents (2) + Storages of the two Linear-Reservoir Cascade (2) • Parametric (10 parameters) • Physically-based • Continuous • Lumped • Conceptual SR INT PC ET2 BF + + SR+BF GW /

  4. STATE EQUATIONS. STATE SPACE [X1, X2, X3, X4] Soil Upper Layer Numerical Solution: 4th-order Runge-Kutta method Soil Lower Layer 1st Linear Reservoir 2nd Linear Reservoir

  5. PARAMETER OPTIMIZATION 10 PARAMETERS Optimization Method: Downhill Simplex Objective Function Weighting Function Constraints: Penalty Function Method

  6. CALIBRATED PARAMETERS & RUN STATISTICS

  7. OBSERVED AND MODELED HYDROGRAPHS IN CALIBRATION

  8. OBSERVED AND MODELED HYDROGRAPHS IN VALIDATION

  9. OBSERVED AND MODELED HYDROGRAPHS ALONG THE ENTIRE PERIOD

  10. Ibicui River Basin OPERATION IN QUASI-REAL TIME

  11. CONCLUSIONS & FUTURE ACTIONS (1) • Reliable operational forecast tool with input data readily downloadable from the Internet. • Sparseness of meteorological networks and unavailability of field records in real time are not a limiting factor for operational hydrology. • The model represents faithfully the physical processes and the daily water balance. • It simulated adequately the streamflows, both during floods and lowwaters. • Reduced peak error and very well resolved timing, important for operational forecasting of flood waves.

  12. CONCLUSIONS & FUTURE ACTIONS (2) • Very fine agreement also in low flow regimes. Total volume, well quantified. • Therefore, it is concluded that the model is suitable for operational use. • Future effort: a better representation of the spatial distribution of the daily precipitation field. • Future effort: implementation in othercatchments in the Del Plata Basin. • Further research: implementation of the updating mode, leading to improved forecasts.

  13. THANK YOU

More Related