1 / 15

ROSNO, Deputy CEO (Corporate Sales), Denis Kuzavlev September, 2009

VMI in crisis CURRENT SITUATION TREND FORECAST. VMI in crisis CURRENT SITUATION TRENDS FORECAST. ROSNO, Deputy CEO (Corporate Sales), Denis Kuzavlev September, 2009. By Denis Kuzavlev, ROSNO, Deputy CEO (Corporate Sales) September 25, 2009. Insurance Market Outlook 2009: Russia.

boris
Download Presentation

ROSNO, Deputy CEO (Corporate Sales), Denis Kuzavlev September, 2009

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. VMIin crisisCURRENT SITUATIONTRENDFORECAST VMIin crisisCURRENT SITUATIONTRENDSFORECAST ROSNO, Deputy CEO (Corporate Sales),Denis Kuzavlev September, 2009 By Denis Kuzavlev, ROSNO, Deputy CEO (Corporate Sales) September 25, 2009

  2. Insurance Market Outlook 2009: Russia Nominal GDP and NL penetration GDP, RUR Bn NL penetration, % Non-Life penetration GDP RF, RUR Bn 1,74% 1,60% 1,46% 1,41% 1,32% 2007 2008 2009 E 2010 E 2011 E Source: Rosstat, FSSN, Allianz forecast

  3. 10,3% 15,1% -10,6% 11,9% Life 624 Non-Life 566 566 22 506 491 19 19 17 23 2007 2008 2009 E 2010 E 2011 E CAGR 6,8% Insurance Market Outlook 2009: Russia Total market GPW Bottom-up approach (RUR bn) Official market (as published in FSSN statistics)

  4. 6,2% +13% +20% -11% +6% 89 83 78 74 70 2007A 2008А 2009E 2010E 2011E Insurance Market Outlook 2009: Russia Insurance LoBs: VMI & PA Official VMI Market GPW (RUR bn) CONCLUSIONS • About 95% of VMI GPW is financed by employers and therefore is related to the aggregate payroll funds. • In 2009 we expect the aggregate payroll funds to contract due to both redundancies and decrease in the average salary. • The ratio of VMI GPW to payroll funds is likely to decrease as employers will seek to cut VMI GPW as low-priority expenses in order to economize during the crisis. Sources:Rosstat, Troika Dialog, Allianz team estimates

  5. 30 26 24 22 20 Insurance Market Outlook 2009: Russia Insurance LoBs: VMI & PA Official PA Market GPW (RUR bn) CONCLUSIONS • About ½ of PA GPW is financed by employers and therefore is related to the aggregate payroll funds. The expected payroll funds contraction and decreased PA GPW to payroll funds ratio apply here as well. • The other ½ of PA GPW comes from mortgage borrowers and credit card holders. In both cases the bank is the beneficiary. • The mortgage market is now frozen, credit card loans are expected to decrease. Therefore the bank assurance part of PA GPW is expected to be under pressure. 10,4% +17% +15% 16% -7% 2007A 2008А 2009E 2010E 2011E Sources:Rosstat, Troika Dialog, Allianz team estimates

  6. Factors affecting VMI price2009 market trends Number of persons insured Altered a little Basically have not changed Scope of cover Frequency of visits to doctor Increased by 20-30% Frequency of hospitalization & emergencies Slightly increased Policlinics price list Increased by 10%

  7. Factors affecting VMI price2009 market trends Network programs Still very popular Relatives program section Still in the major programs Bonuses Still in & very popular Quality of medical care Going down Policlinics staff turn over Drastically increased

  8. Development of medical infrastructure lags behind the needs of the VMI Market. Share of payments to the 15 most popular Moscow health facilities is over 45% of the total payments. Factors Influencing VMI Development Market has created a situation of high concentration of corporate clients in a small number of popular health care facilities.

  9. Factors influencing VMI price Care Facilities Price-lists trend Price dynamics in most popular Moscow Health Care Facilities High demand for small number of care facilities allows them to raise prices unreasonably and without increase of services quality

  10. Increasing market interest to network programs Quantity of insured in a network program

  11. Network program claims

  12. Increasing market interest to network programs Quantity of VMI contracts in a network program Corporate Clients Private Clients

  13. Recommendations VMI price Decrease • Relatives to be excluded from the VMI programs • To have real cheap price re-design the program and scope of cover • Beware of net working programs • Do not insist on bonuses • Do not expect high quality in expensive clinics • Prepare bad days plan

  14. Conclusions 2009 • VMI prices are slightly going down • Claims ratio increased • Newly launched cheap anti crisis VMI programs are not popular

  15. Thank you for your attention! www.rosno.ru

More Related