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Scenarios and Vision for the E uropean T erritory in 2050 (ET 2050)

Scenarios and Vision for the E uropean T erritory in 2050 (ET 2050). Philippe Doucet ERRIN Conference “Smart specialisation, integrated strategies and territorial cohesion: tension or synergies” 27 September 2012 - Brussels. The ESDP process: 1989-1999, 14 ministerial meetings.

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Scenarios and Vision for the E uropean T erritory in 2050 (ET 2050)

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  1. Scenarios and Vision for the EuropeanTerritory in 2050 (ET 2050) Philippe Doucet ERRIN Conference “Smart specialisation, integrated strategies and territorial cohesion: tension or synergies” 27 September 2012 - Brussels

  2. The ESDP process: 1989-1999, 14 ministerial meetings

  3. “What needs to be done and where?”: no answer... No map displaying geographically-differentiated policy objectives • in the Territorial Agenda 2007 (adopted in 2007 in Leipzig) • in the Green Paper on Territorial Cohesion • in the Territorial Agenda 2020 (adopted in 2011 in Gödöllő) • in the Baltic Sea Region and Danube Region Strategies

  4. But some attempts were made, for example: Europe 2030 (Conference of Peripheral and Maritime Areas CPMR , 2002)

  5. Eurocities: European Territorial Vision and Framework (ETVF) “Giving Spatial Expression to the Concept of Territorial Cohesion”

  6. All these exercises were tricky, and no formal attempt has ever been made in the framework of the EU economic, social and territorial cohesion policy. However, the ESPON 2006 programme, launched in 2002, was meant to provide technical support to the Territorial Agenda process, hence to contribute to a geographically differentiated policy approach. ESPON 2006 = “European Spatial Planning Observation Network”. ESPON 2013 = “European Observation Network for Territorial Development and Cohesion”. ESPON 2006, Project 3.2 : “Scenarios on the territorial future of Europe”.

  7. ESPON Project 3.2 (published May 2007)

  8. ESPON Project 3.2 “Roll-back scenario”

  9. ESPON 2013 Programme: ET2050 Project ET 2050 stands for: « Scenarios and Visionfor the European Territory in 2050 (ET 2050) » Goal: supporting policy makers in formulating a long-term integrated and coherent VISION for the development of the EU territory from 2010 up to 2050.

  10. ET2050 Consortium POLIMI Roberto Camagni Roberta Capello Ugo Fratesi IOM Marek Kupiszewski Dorota Kupiszewska RIKS Jaspers de Vliet Hedwig van Delden Nordregio Alexandre Dubois University of Thessaly (UTH)Harry Coccosis WSEJacek Szlachta ISISCarlo Sessa ERSILIA Jaume Jorba MCRIT, LP Andreu Ulied Oriol Biosca Rafael Rodrigo TERSYN (Jacques Robert) IGEAT Valérie Biot Philippe Doucet Vincent Calay RKKIvan Illes Katalin Süle S&WMichael Wegener Klaus Spiekermann ESPON CU Sara Ferrara Marjan van Herwijnen Sounding Board Patrick Salez Karl Peter Schon

  11. ET2050 Methodology Scientifically-driven (what may happen in the future?) Politically-driven (what would we like to happen?)

  12. State of progress (1st Interim Report) Scientifically-driven (what may happen in the future?) Politically-driven (what we would like to happen?)  

  13. ET2050 work plan Late Sept. 2012

  14. Tasks already performed (First Interim Report) • Analysis of Present State(16 reports) • By Sectors(demography, economy, energy, transport, land-uses, environment, governance) • By Territories(9 macro-zones covering EU+NC) • By European Policies(Cohesion, Agricultural, Transport, Environment…) • CriticalBifurcationsahead(aprox. 25) • Definition ofKey Directions (aprox. 15 Trends + 15 Policies) • Comparison of Baseline Scenarios(aprox. 100 future-oriented studies) • Foresight exercise(indicators at World/EU scale (1950-2050, 10+50 indicators) • Forecast exercise (indicators at NUTS3) • Sectoral models (MULTIPOLES, MASST, MOSAIC-TT, METRONAMICA) and Integrated model (SASI) • Analysis of results and adjustment of Baseline Scenario

  15. Baseline Reference World Indicators

  16. Baseline R&D Indicators

  17. Critical Bifurcation Federalism (Superstate) Structural Reforms / Voluntarist Scenario Limited Federalism Limited Reforms / Likely Scenario (Most Win) Euro-crisis Wellfare (in average) Break-up Worse-case Scenario for ST (All Lost) 1992 2012 2020 2050

  18. Critical Bifurcation Federalism (Superstate) Structural Reforms / Voluntarist Scenario Limited Federalism Limited Reforms / Likely Scenario Baseline BAU (no Reforms) Scenario Euro-crisis Wellfare (in average) Break-up Worse-case Scenario (All Lost) 1992 2012 2020 2050

  19. ET 2050 Scenario – Territory Matrix First tentative outline !

  20. The Vision-scenarios iterative process Scientifically-driven The building process of the scenarios and the Territorial VISION should be cyclical and dynamic allowing various key-players to take an active part in the development and testing of the VISION and scenarios VISION Scenarios Politically-driven Important to address key-values and policy goals at an early stage of the ET2050 project implementation process

  21. Please visit: www.et2050.eu Thank you for your attention!

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