Approach to the Wind Resource Assessment for the Sixth Power Plan

1. Approach to the Wind Resource Assessment for the Sixth Power Plan Northwest Power & Conservation Council Generating Resources Advisory Committee August 21, 2008

2. Objective • Estimate a supply curve of wind power plausibly available to the Northwest over the next 20 years • Considering: • Transmission feasibility • Competition from other load centers

3. Alternative approaches • "Informed expert" estimate (of quantity) (5th Plan) • Adopt/modify a recent assessment • RMATS • NTAC Montana - Northwest & C-N-C studies • Western Governor's Association CDEAC initiative • US DOE 20% Wind Energy by 2030 • Build on or adopt an ongoing assessment • WECC 2009 NERC Long-term Reliability Analysis (LRTA) 15% renewables scenario • WGA/USDOE Western Renewable Energy Zone project • Independent assessment, drawing on information from all the foregoing where feasible

4. RMATS Wind Assessment* Goal: "Identify technically, financially and environmentally viable generation projects with potential for development in the Rocky Mountain Sub-region in the near future". Annual capacity factors and capacity values calculated for load regions based on NREL wind speed data. * Hamilton, et al. Integrating Wind into Transmission Planning: The Rocky Mountain Area Transmission Study (RMATS). March 2004

5. RMATS load regions & wind capacity factors

6. NTAC C-N-C Study Resource areas & transmission corridors

7. WGA CDEAC supply curves* * Western Governor's Association. Clean and Diversified Energy Initiative: Wind Task Force Report. March 2006

8. CDEAC resource areas

9. US DOE: 20% Wind Energy by 2030 • Published May 2008; EOY 2006 data • PNW wind characteristics based on 2002 NREL state wind power maps. • Wind capacity expansion estimated usign NREL WinDS GIS/Linear programming capacity expansion model • 136 Balancing areas (load centers) • 358 Wind resource regions • Transmission linkages (10% of existing capacity assumed available for wind) • Seeks "Cost-optimal" buildout • Wind project and transmission capital and operating costs from Black & Veatch study (to be published). Terrestrial and shallow offshore technology.

10. 20% by 2030 Report: Somewhat counterintuitive results for PNW

11. Application of existing studies • RMATS • Resource area annual capacity factors • NTAC • Transmission cost information (needs escalation) • No original resource information • CDEAC • State-level wind resource supply curves • No Canadian information • USDOE 20% • Wind project and transmission cost estimates • Questionable development patterns at regional scale • WECC/TEPPC 15% renewables scenario • Resource characteristics based on new NREL mesoscale data • Insufficient wind resource • WREZ • Resource characteristics based on new NREL mesoscale data • Realistic resource areas and transmission corridors • Unlikely to be available in time

12. Proposed approach - Regional wind supply curve • Identify principal wind resource areas available to Northwest utilities • Substantial developable wind resource • Actual transmission initiatives • Available information regarding wind characteristics • Estimate production characteristics of each WRA • Seasonal and diurnal hourly output (12 mo x 24 hr) • Incremental demand for regulation & load-following (?) • Estimate component costs • Wind plant (i.e., busbar + local interconnection) • Terrestrial • Shallow off-shore • New transmission to proposed Boardman hub (unit cost x circuit miles) • Point-to-point transmission, Boardman to LSE (to establish parity w/energy-efficiency) • Regulation & load-following

13. Wind resource areas & transmission • Preferred: WREZ resource areas and transmission corridors definitions; but, unlikely to be available in time • Alternative: CDEAC WRAs + S. OR offshore & NTAC Canadian WRAs, guided by current transmission corridor proposals • Columbia Basin buildout • Central Montana • S.E Idaho • Central Alberta • Wyoming • S. OR offshore • BC Coastal? • SE Oregon?

14. MATL TransCanada Northern Lights BPA W. of McNary BPA I-5 PacifiCorp Walla Walla NWE MSTI IPC Hemmingway - Boardman PG&E Canada-PNW-CA PGE Southern Crossing PacifiCorp Gateway West Major transmission proposals

15. Proposed Boardman hub Wind resource areas and transmission corridors

16. Estimating resource area production • 12 mo x 24 hour time series for modelling purposes • U.S. Resource Areas preferred option: 3-year synthetic production from NREL mesoscale dataset (30,000 points in US WECC) • If NREL synthetic hourly not available: • Aggregate historical hourly production data (Columbia Basin areas) • Synthetic production estimates from anemometer data (Columbia Basin, Montana) • Annual capacity factors from RMATS and CDEAC studies • Alberta - AESO aggregate historical hourly production

17. Estimating costs • Wind project costs: • Representative project • Terrestrial and offshore • Effective cost will vary by capacity factor • Terrestrial capital cost discussion later today, O&M costs to follow • Off-shore - LIPA study, USDOE 20% study, reported project costs. • Transmission costs • Unit costs x line length • NTAC unit costs, escalated w/consideration of other studies & reported transmission project costs • Regulation, load-following & shaping) • Initial discussion to follow this presentation

18. Other issues • Benefits of geographic diversity in reducing demand for regulation and load-following • Assumptions regarding transmission load factor: • Tradeoff between transmission cost and value of interrupted energy • Relative location of resource area and firming services. • Inconsistent sources of wind resource data • NPCC perspective • Central point of delivery (e.g. Mid-C of proposed Boardman hub) • MAy not be representative of local service