1 / 17

First results from LMDz-INCA Model QUANTIFY D3.1.2.11 and D.3.3.1.10

Contributions of present (2000) and future (2050) emissions by road, aircraft and ship traffics to the chemical composition of the troposphere. First results from LMDz-INCA Model QUANTIFY D3.1.2.11 and D.3.3.1.10. Brigitte Koffi, Sophie Szopa, Anne Cozic LSCE-IPSL (Gif sur Yvette).

brandee-canute
Download Presentation

First results from LMDz-INCA Model QUANTIFY D3.1.2.11 and D.3.3.1.10

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Contributions of present (2000) and future (2050) emissions by road, aircraft and ship traffics to the chemical composition of the troposphere First results from LMDz-INCA Model QUANTIFY D3.1.2.11 and D.3.3.1.10 Brigitte Koffi, Sophie Szopa, Anne Cozic LSCE-IPSL (Gif sur Yvette) QUANTIFY AC3 Workshop, August 2008, Cambridge

  2. OBJECTIVES The LMDz-INCA climate-chemistry model is used to estimate the effect of transport emissions on the chemical composition of the troposphere at global scale. Up-to-date emission inventories (2000) and predictions (2050) are used for the transport and other anthropogenic emissions • SIMULATIONS • Resolution : 3.75° x 2.5° , 19 hybrid -p levels (up to 3 hPa) • Nudged simulations for current climate and 2003 meteorology with: • 2000 anthropogenic emissions • 2050 anthropogenic emissions for A1 scenario • 2050 anthropogenic emissions for B1 scenario • Emission datasets • ● Anthropogenic emissions =QUANTIFY final datasets (1°x1°) • ● Biogenic emissions = IPSL “ORCHIDEE” model outputs (2°x2°) QUANTIFY AC3 Workshop, August 2008, Cambridge

  3. > 50 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 4 3 2 1 0 > 50 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 4 3 2 1 0 > 50 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 4 3 2 1 0 Figure 1: Global NOx transport emissions (1013 kg N.m-2.s-1) 2000 Aircraft emissions 2050 Aircraft emissions (A1) 2050 Aircraft emissions (B1) 0.85 Mt N/yr 1.05 Mt N/yr 3.33 Mt N/yr 2000 Ship emissions 2050 Ship emissions (A1) 2050 Ship emissions (B1) 4.17 Mt N/yr 5.05 Mt N/yr 8.64 Mt N/yr 2000 Road emissions 2050 Road emissions (A1) 2050 Road emissions (B1) 8.63 Mt N/yr 0.51 Mt N/yr 1.71 Mt N/yr Source: Koffi et al., 2008

  4. > +3.5 +3.5 +3.0 +2.5 +2.0 +1.5 +1.0 +0.5 +0.0 >+4.5 +4.5 +4.0 +3.5 +3.0 +2.5 +2.0 +1.5 +1.0 +0.5 +0.0 Figure 2: Impact of 2000 emissions on Ozone (July 2003) Aircraft Ship Road Column perturbation (DU) Aircraft Ship Zonal mean perturbatipn (ppbv) Source: Koffi et al., 2008 QUANTIFY AC3 Workshop, August 2008, Cambridge

  5. > +3.5 +3.5 +3.0 +2.5 +2.0 +1.5 +1.0 +0.5 +0.0 >+4.5 +4.5 +4.0 +3.5 +3.0 +2.5 +2.0 +1.5 +1.0 +0.5 +0.0 Figure 3a: Impact of 2050 emissions on Ozone (July 2003): A1 scenario Aircraft Ship Road Column perturbation (DU) Zonal mean perturbatipn (ppbv) Source: Koffi et al., 2008 QUANTIFY AC3 Workshop, August 2008, Cambridge

  6. > +3.5 +3.5 +3.0 +2.5 +2.0 +1.5 +1.0 +0.5 +0.0 >+4.5 +4.5 +4.0 +3.5 +3.0 +2.5 +2.0 +1.5 +1.0 +0.5 +0.0 Figure 3b: Impact of 2050 emissions on Ozone (July 2003): B1 scenario Aircraft Ship Road X 5 Column perturbation (DU) Zonal mean perturbatipn (ppbv) Source: Koffi et al., 2008 QUANTIFY AC3 Workshop, August 2008, Cambridge

  7. Figure 4: Respective contributions (%) to the traffic impact on O3 column (July 2003) Road Aircraft Ship 2000 2050 A1 scenario 2050 B1 scenario

  8. Figure 5: Monthly total traffic impact (% of O3 column) for 2000 Emissions JAN DEC

  9. Figure 6: Monthly total traffic impact (% of O3 column) for 2050 Emissions A1 SCENARIO JAN DEC

  10. Figure 7: Monthly total traffic impact (% of O3 column) for 2050 Emissions B1 SCENARIO JAN DEC

  11. MAIN RESULTS FROM LMDz-INCA MODEL • Present emissions (2000) • Road traffic has the highest impact on ozone concentrations (up to 85% of the total impact of transport ), followed by ship and aircraft. • All together, the transport modes contribute to 4 to 9% of the ozone column in the whole Northern Hemisphere throughout the year. • Future emissions (2050) • According to A1 (B1) scenario, aviation (ship traffic) would become the major transport source of tropospheric ozone perturbation at global scale. • The contribution of all transport modes to the ozone column would: • A1: increase every where, reaching up to 13% in some areas such as Asia. • B1: decrease by 1% (Asia) to 2% (N. Hemis.) compared to 2000 QUANTIFY AC3 Workshop, August 2008, Cambridge

  12. CURRENT WORK • Further analysis of the outputs • New simulations with 2000 anthropogenic emissions but with MESSy biogenic emissions (instead of ORCHIDEE) • PERSPECTIVES • 10-years simulation runs, using consistent Greenhouses Gaz Concentrations and Sea Surface Temperatures for the present and future will be done to better assess the impact of the transport modes on the tropospheric chemistry, including the climate feed-back. • = D3.3.2.3 deliverable QUANTIFY AC3 Workshop, August 2008, Cambridge

  13. 2. Current road udpated emissions NOx emissions QUANTIFY AC3 Workshop, August 2008, Cambridge

  14. 3. Current road udpated emissions CO emissions QUANTIFY AC3 Workshop, August 2008, Cambridge

  15. 3. Current road udpated emissions NMHC emissions (fluxes in molecules.m2.s-1) QUANTIFY AC3 Workshop, August 2008, Cambridge

  16. 3. Current Aircraft udpated emissions NOx emissions (in) QUANTIFY AC3 Workshop, August 2008, Cambridge

  17. 3. Current Aircraft udpated emissions Log(NOx emissions) QUANTIFY AC3 Workshop, August 2008, Cambridge

More Related