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Presentation to Post-Primary Review Working Group – 19 June 2003. Features of the Current Arrangements. The Selective System. System of grammar and secondary schools 71 grammar schools (63,000 or 40% of pupils) 164 secondary schools (93,000 or 60% of pupils)
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Presentation to Post-Primary Review Working Group – 19 June 2003 Features of the Current Arrangements
The Selective System • System of grammar and secondary schools 71 grammar schools (63,000 or 40% of pupils) 164 secondary schools (93,000 or 60% of pupils) • Differences within the selective system • Regional variations in access to places
The Selective System in Practice • 66% of P7 pupils sat the 2002/03 tests • Admission to grammar schools: 35.3% (2002/03) • Over/under-subscription • Negligible movement between school types until age 16
International Comparisons:PISA and International Adult Literacy Survey • Significantly better than OECD average. • Around 10th out of 32 in Reading, Maths and Science. • Performed similar to England (and Scotland). • One of the widest ranges of achievement. • 24% of NI workforce at lowest literacy level.
Average GCSE Point Score by Free School Meal Band (2001/02) for Secondary Schools
How does performance in Grammar and Secondary schools compare?
Comparison of top achieving secondary school pupils with grammar pupils Top 25% of Secondary All Grammar School Leavers School Leavers % % 5+ GCSE’s A*-C 100 96 5+ GCSE’s A*-G 100 99
Variation in School Performance 2001/02 Grammar Schools 3+ A Levels A-C 7+ GCSEs A*-C Top 10% 78% 99% Bottom 10% 46% 74% Secondary Schools 5+GCSEs A*-C 5+GCSEs A*-G Top 10% 63% 98% Bottom 10% 12% 53%
Post-16 Participation Rates • 2001 Provisional figures for England • Sixth Form Colleges included in FE figure for England
Access To Higher Education • Routes to Higher Education • 55% from grammar schools • 45% from secondary schools, FE Colleges and other sources • Majority of working class entrants to HE come through non-grammar routes
Demography What impact will demography have on post-primary education?
Demography • Population projections • Impact on post-primary population • Impact on secondary schools • Impact on grammar schools
Population Projections • Post-Primary Age Population to decline by a quarter by 2040
Secondary:Grammar Ratios • By 2020 grammar and secondary ration will be 50:50
Impact on Secondary Schools • By 2010 - reduction of 12,000 pupils in secondary schools which equates to 21 secondary schools (based on average size of 560) • By 2020 - 31,000 pupils (55 schools)
Surplus Places • 13,000 surplus places in post-primary schools (8%) • Almost 70% (113) secondary schools have surplus places • Nearly half (76) have 10% or more surplus places
Impact on Secondary Schools • Viability of some schools – closures, amalgamations • Ability mix within schools • Impact will be greater in particular areas
Impact on Grammar Schools • Ability mix within schools • 8% of admissions to grammar schools are Cs or Ds at present • 21 grammar schools with 10% admissions with Cs and Ds in Transfer Test • 10 schools with 20% or more Cs and Ds admitted
Demography: Key Points • Population to fall by a quarter by 2040 • Full impact on secondary sector • Implications for rationalisation • Implications for ability mix in secondary and grammar schools
Forces For Change • Dissatisfaction with Transfer Test • Weaknesses in post-16 provision • Curricular change • Falling post-primary demography • Changing social profile of intakes to HE
Forces for Change (Cont) • Equality/human rights/inclusion agenda • Social cohesion • Globalisation/economic development • Local Assembly
Discussion What issues have been raised by this presentation?